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Wednesday featured no shortage of rookies taking the hill, and yet the least heralded of all of them, Brock Stewart, is the one who made me do a double take.
No, really.
Sure, he allowed five runs over five innings (with seven strikeouts, by the way), but it wasn't really about his performance. And it's not like he's expected to stick around for the Dodgers, so I wouldn't say I'm looking to pick him up anywhere.
He caught my attention just by earning the opportunity, which forced me to look into why he earned the opportunity, which clued me in to what he was doing in the minors.
It's awe-inspiring. Over 14 starts between three levels -- including two of the hitter-friendliest in all the minors -- he compiled a 1.47 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 10.4 strikeouts to just 1.5 walks per nine innings. This from a guy who was completely off the prospect radar coming into the season.
Granted, sometimes pitchers dominate in the minors, and it means nothing. Other times, it earns them a chance that they might not have otherwise gotten, but they still go on to be just marginal major-leaguers, sort of like Mike Fiers and Dan Straily. But Fiers' and Straily's minor-league numbers weren't quite that good. Plus, both throw in the high 80s. Stewart's fastball repeatedly hit 95.
I'm just saying we shouldn't sleep on him if he does find his way into more regular work. As many arms as the Dodgers have cycled through to get to him, I had assumed Stewart was just organizational depth. That may not be the case.
1. Reed to succeed?
I almost blew it Sunday when submitting my claims for this week. I almost dropped Jameson Taillon after back-to-back starts in which he allowed four earned runs on eight hits over just four innings. His only success to that point had come in two starts against the Mets, and only one of those was what I'd call exceptional.
"He's not there yet," I thought. "I can't afford to take these lumps with him."
But then he goes and turns in this start Wednesday at the Mariners:
It doesn't mean the former second overall pick has it all figured out now and won't take any more lumps the rest of the way, but it could mean that or something close to it. One thing's for sure: It has a better chance for him than most anyone on the waiver wire, so it's fair to say I wouldn't have another shot at him if I had released him Sunday.
Which brings me to Cody Reed and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad start against the Cubs, his second straight of that variety:
On the one hand, the rookie hasn't done anything in three starts to suggest he belongs on your roster, but it's not like he has been completely overmatched. He does have 20 strikeouts to five walks over 16 innings, and those have been fairly consistent.
If the extreme highs and lows we've witnessed from so many established aces this year have taught us anything, it's that subtle changes can make a big difference, and it's possible that's all Reed needs.
"He's making some flat fastball mistakes over the plate and throwing a lot of fastballs in fastball counts," Reds manager Bryan Price told MLB.com. "These guys are putting them on the barrel right now. He'll make his adjustments."
Maybe in leagues where other pitchers with known upside like Matt Moore, James Paxton, Jon Gray, etc. are still available, you can afford to drop Reed, who was less hyped than Taillon to begin with. But considering those three are all owned in more leagues than Reed, I imagine few Reed owners will find themselves in that position, in which case they should be asking themselves, "Do I risk him pulling a Taillon next time out?"
Comparing Reed to some of the pitchers owned in the same range, such as R.A. Dickey, Jonathon Niese and Yovani Gallardo, he has far and away the most upside still.
2. Moore problems
Notice I mentioned Matt Moore as one of those pitchers with "known upside," and I don't know how many times I've pointed it out this year: He was the No. 2 prospect according to Baseball America in 2012, ranking between Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, and looked like he was well on his way his first two years. Now, he's working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and it hasn't gone smoothly.
I thought I could use that to my advantage Sunday, dropping him for a two-start pitcher in a Head-to-Head league where I desperately needed a win but then putting in a claim for him immediately thereafter. My lineup would lock before the claim went through, and I'd come out right as rain. He had already been on and off the waiver wire a couple times in that league, so coming off a bad start, I didn't think he'd be a priority for anyone else. And it's like his next start Wednesday figured to change that, not with the numbers the Red Sox are putting up.
Oh.
See, part of the reason I wanted him back is because his two starts before the bad one were golden, and this latest one Wednesday against the Red Sox makes it 3 of 4. He's getting swings and misses on his fastball. He's throwing more strikes than ever before. He's looking like a guy who has figured it out.
This season has been an unusual one in that, here at the halfway point, it's still not clear who the breakout pitchers are. Steven Wright, sure, but he was so out of left field that it took forever for me to buy in. And the track records of Marco Estrada and Jason Hammel aren't the most inspiring either. You look at any starting pitcher beyond, say, my top 45, and it's anybody's guess which of those is really going to be the most useful for Fantasy owners.
It's why this sort of four-start stretch for a pitcher of Moore's caliber is a big deal and why I'm kicking myself for that move now.
3. Junior mint
One pitcher who's rapidly putting himself in the breakout discussion (and who's actually less owned than even Cody Reed) is Junior Guerra, who turned in another gem Wednesday against the Dodgers:
He had an 11-strikeout effort back on May 19 as well, and even most of lesser starts since then have been respectable. Seven of his last nine starts, in fact, have been quality starts.
But he's a 31-year-old stopgap on a rebuilding team. Surely, it won't last, right?
How far one elite pitch can carry a pitcher is of course a separate discussion, but Guerra seems to have one in his splitter, which has accounted for 46.8 percent of his swinging strikes, according to BrooksBaseball.net, and has yielded just a .140 batting average, the lowest for any splitter in the game. It's one he picked up from former Giants reliever Jean Machi and has needed five years to hone, which explains why he's only now breaking through.
And clearly, he's not going anywhere.
"He has been one of the great stories for us this year," manager Craig Counsell told MLB.com
Guerra is also relief pitcher-eligible, which makes him must-add in Head-to-Head points leagues. But the way he's going right now, he may be worth adding in just about every format. In a year with so few breakout pitchers, the FOMO is real.
4. Second helping
While starting pitcher is lacking in breakout performers this year, second base seems to add them by the day. And this month, three in particular are shaking up the position.
On Wednesday, Brian Dozier delivered another hit, extending his streak to 11 games, and Jonathan Schoop had two, giving him eight multi-hit games in his own 11-game streak. Devon Travis went only 1 for 5, but he already has five home runs in 116 at-bats since returning from shoulder surgery, continuing to show the power that made him a rookie sensation early in 2015 before succumbing to the shoulder. Here's how their numbers look for this month:
Again, second base is weak, so it takes something like this for a player to make waves. But make them these three have. See, for what the position offers in depth, it's lacking in standouts, allowing plenty of room for interpretation after the big five of Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Matt Carpenter, Daniel Murphy and Ian Kinsler, two of whom are also eligible at third base.
You'd think Dozier would have separated himself given that he's not far removed from being one of the elite options at the position, but I felt like he was overrated to begin with. Even though this surge has gotten his percentages beyond where they were last year, he's still only the 11th-best second baseman in Head-to-Head points leagues for the year, behind Dustin Pedroia and DJ LeMahieu, among others. His home runs are still the source of his production, and it's not like he's delivering 30 of those.
Jonathan Schoop may, but he's below-average in several areas. I mean, maybe he's the .300 hitter this hot streak makes him out to be, but with a .344 BABIP overall, I tend to doubt it. He's still on pace for just 25 walks, which will make the inevitable cold streak a backbreaker in Head-to-Head leagues especially and will likely keep him behind more balanced players like Pedroia and DJ LeMahieu in the long run.
No, if I had to pick one of these three to stand out over the long haul, it's Travis, who has offered nothing less than top-flight production since setting foot in the big leagues. Combining this year's numbers with last, he has a .297 batting average, 13 home runs and .839 OPS over 333 at-bats. And batting in the top third of a loaded lineup, he won't get shortchanged on runs and RBI.
If I was lucky enough to land Travis off the waiver wire, I might be shopping my primary second baseman now, provided he's not one of the big five.
5. Sacrificial Lamb
When scouting out hitters in my mixed Fantasy leagues, I've always subscribed to one rule: I don't bother with platoon players.
There's a known limit to their ceiling. They might be MVP-caliber on a per-at-bat basis, but if they're only getting 400 at-bats, their totals are so lacking that you're not really missing much.
So you can understand my confusion with what Jake Lamb is doing right now. The guy has sat against _ of the 15 of the 25 left-handed starting pitchers the Diamondbacks have faced this year, and yet with his 17th home run Wednesday, he's now the seventh-best third baseman in Head-to-Head points leagues, ahead of stalwarts like Kyle Seager and Todd Frazier.
And points leagues are where totals matter the most. Percentages aren't even a consideration. Scoring is all about how much of what a guy delivered that day. Apparently for Lamb, it has been plenty.
It has also been consistent, which is why I'm having a hard time dismissing it. This isn't a case like Dozier or Schoop of a hot streak inflating a player's numbers beyond what he can sustain. Lamb's month-by-month breakdown is unusually steady, and he has yet to go more than 11 games without a home run.
Even in weeks when the Diamondbacks are facing three or four lefties, he's still usable because of all of his appearances off the bench, which explains how he's on pace for more than 500 at-bats. Still, the less-than-consistent playing time might compel you to shop him in a Head-to-Head league, if only to avoid those weeks of indecision.
But you'll want to get a full return for him, because halfway home, I'm convinced he's not going away. You need to capitalize on that investment one way or another.
