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I've spent a lot of time in this space lamenting Thursdays ...well not today. This is about as much as you can ask for.
First off, it's Ryan Raburn day. The lefty masher gets Adam Morgan at Coors Field. Morgan has given up a .578 SLG to righties in his short career, and that's without making an appearance at Coors. He should get mashed today by any righty with power.
Normally on Coors slates, the problem is deciding if you want to play the top pitcher or the high scoring game. Today you get to play both. My top pitcher is under $10,000 on both sites and there are several intriguing options that didn't even make the top three.
Rich Hill makes his second start since returning from the DL. Hill is a high variance play against maybe the most high variance lineup in baseball. That's a lot of fun.
Rookies are also fun, and we get Lucas Giolito against the Mets. Giolito's first career start also came against the Mets. He threw four shutout innings before rain shortened his outing.
Those two pitchers along with Jason Hammel against the Braves offer three quality options outside of my top three pitchers on a slate that offers plenty of stacking opportunities. This makes it one of my favorite Thursday slates of the season.
Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer ($9,200, $9,900)
I know things didn't work out great earlier this week when we targeted the Yankees bats on the road, but I'm still going to take the season sample size over one Carlos Rodon start. Also, it's fair to note that Bauer has been a better pitcher than Rodon this season and the Indians are a much better team. Bauer is getting more ground balls than ever, which has greatly helped him in limiting home runs. This is a Yankees team that's generally going to struggle scoring runs without the long ball.
Drew Pomeranz ($10,400, $11,700)
Pomeranz has been outstanding this season, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings with an ERA below 2.65. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 28th in baseball in wOBA vs. LHP (.288). Pomeranz has made six starts this year against teams that rank in the bottom third of baseball vs. lefties. In those starts, he has struck out 37 batters in 37 innings with a 1.70 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. If not for the game at Coors, Pomeranz would be my top pitcher.
Danny Duffy ($8,800, $9,300)
Danny Duffy became a starting pitcher on May 15. Since then he has a 3.14 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 66 Ks in 57.1 innings. He has been a certifiable ace and he's still just $8,800 on FanDuel. I don't love Duffy's matchup, but he's still the fourth biggest favorite on the slate. I wouldn't use Duffy in cash, but he's a nice tournament option.
Stack Attack
Adam Morgan is a bad pitcher in any ballpark, and I would expect him to get crushed at Coors Field. Ryan Raburn and Trevor Story are my favorite values, and I would expect Nolan Arenado's ownership to be through the roof. The Phillies are almost universally well priced, making it very possible to stack this entire game with Duffy or Bauer. I don't think that's the worst idea.
Rangers vs. Twins
Tyler Duffey has been a major disappointment this year for the Twins, and I don't imagine that will change tonight. You will have to check the Rangers lineup, but if Jurickson Profar is at the top of the lineup, I love him as a value play on FanDuel. Nomar Mazara is also under $3,000, which helps with the inevitable Coors stack.
Indians vs. Yankees
Ivan Nova was much better in his last start, but that was the Padres. He has given up at least four runs in six of his last eight starts. The Indians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and boast five regulars with a wOBA over .345 against RHP. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall both feel like bargains in this matchup.
Lineups
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Trevor Bauer $9,200
C Nick Hundley $3,200
1B Miguel Cabrera $3,300
2B Jason Kipnis $2,900
3B Nolan Arenado $4,400
SS Trevor Story $3,200
OF Ryan Raburn $3,300
OF Nomar Mazara $2,700
OF Josh Reddick $2,700
DraftKings
P Trevor Bauer $9,900
P Jason Hammel $7,400
C Salvador Perez $2,900
1B Miguel Cabrera $3,800
2B Jurickson Profar $4,200
3B Maikel Franco $5,100
SS Freddy Galvis $3,700
OF Ryan Raburn $3,900
OF Nomar Mazara $3,700
OF Odubel Herrera $5,300
