It's almost a certainty that first-time major winners will emerge during each golf season. Dating back to 2000, every year except for two (2000, 2014) has featured a first-time major winner, and most of those have included multiple first-timers, including each of the last nine years.
In 2023, it was Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) and Brian Harman (Open Championship). Perhaps not the first duo one would have thought of when trying to guess who would put a tick mark in the major column. The year before that it was Matt Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open), Cam Smith (Open Championship) and Scottie Scheffler (Masters). In 2021, Jon Rahm (U.S. Open) and Hideki Matsuyama (Masters). Even 2020, which featured only three majors amid the COVID-19 pandemic, saw multiple first-timers in Bryson DeChambeau (U.S. Open) and Collin Morikwawa (PGA Championship).
There are several reasons for this. The first is that most professional golfers who play major championships have not won major championships, and because of the way golf works, the massive group of non-major winners often has an edge over the small group that has won at least one.
The other consideration here is drive. Hunger. Ambition. Scaling the mountain is always easier than reigning over it, and that is perhaps especially true in individual sports. Teams that have won championships before always have at least a handful of players who were not with them, so there is always some level of drive there. Complacency, intentional or not, is always easier in individual sports when achievements have been reached.
So we know that it is likely somebody is going to win their first major championship. We just don't know who that player is (or those players are) yet. Here is a list of who I think fits the bill, starting with the most obvious choice in the world.
1. Viktor Hovland: A question: Would you be more surprised if Viktor Hovland won or did not win a major in the next two years? Right now, Hovland is 10-1 to win the Masters, which, when you do all the math implies that he's about 50-50 to win a major over the next two years. I think I would actually be more surprised if he didn't win one, even if the odds of him doing so are about the same either way. Why? In 2023, he unlocked the mental and management it takes to win majors. He's had all the physical gifts for a long time, but between figuring out that he doesn't have to rip at every pin and staring down Brooks Koepka for 18 holes at Oak Hill, I think he's arrived at a different place psychologically that will allow him to win one of the four majors at some point in his career.
2. Patrick Cantlay: Maybe I'm the fool here, but I think Cantlay will win a major in his career. Even though his performances broadly at the majors (four top 10s in 27 starts) have been terrible for a player of his caliber, his golf is too good for him to not be in contention. He showed something at the Ryder Cup last fall that I was not sure was within him. He was nasty over those last three holes against Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick on Saturday evening. Birdie-birdie-birdie in Europe on those guys to give the U.S. a chance was sociopathic stuff and exactly what it takes to win one of the four big ones throughout the year.
3. Will Zalatoris: It will all come down to health for Zalatoris, who is making his first start since the Masters this week at the Sony Open. His major record is sterling, though; he has six top-eight finishes in nine major starts as a pro. I want to be careful here because major success can be fleeting, and the past is not necessarily an indication of future success. But everything we know about Zalatoris points to him contending in a lot of these (again, pending health), which is most of the game when it comes to winning one.
4. Tony Finau: He did not have the best season in 2023 and has struggled at the majors in general over the last two years. I cannot ignore the skillset, though. And while there is a bit of what has plagued Xander Schauffele (see below) in that he has struggled to close out some of these events, it does seem like he's turned a corner in general in that area over the past few years.
5. Max Homa: He's arguably the best iron player on this list, which, last time I checked, is what separates players in major championship conditions. Like Cantlay, I find it odd that he hasn't thrived more with the conditions dialed up a bit, but he did notch his first top 10 at a major last year at The Open at Royal Liverpool. I'd be surprised if we didn't get another one (or more) in 2024.
6. Sungjae Im: Yep, I am in. He has two top-eight finishes in four starts at the Masters and two top 20s at majors overall last year. He's the most underrated player in the world and has all the gifts you need to win a major championship (or more) throughout his career.
7. Cameron Young: Zalatoris lite so far. He was my pick to win the Masters at the beginning of the year. I'm mildly concerned about his 2023 struggles, but he is such a menace off the tee, and that tends to separate players so well at places where the majors are played. He was low-key awesome at last year's Masters (T8), but it got no attention because of Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka battling at the top.
8. Ludvig Aberg: Nobody has won in their first major championship start since Keegan Bradley did it at the 2011 PGA Championship, but nobody has had as much hype going into their first major as Aberg will have going into the Masters. A freakish talent who drives it well enough to contend at any of the four majors but will have to improve his approach play a bit if he wants to win one of them.
9. Xander Schauffele: There are so many different directions to go late on this list. Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton and Sahith Theegala are all difficult to omit, but it would be egregious to not include Schauffele. The No. 6 player in the world has 11 (eleven!) top 10s in 26 major championship starts and isn't higher because of how much he sometimes struggles to close them out.
