One of the wackier Moving Days in recent major championship history occurred Saturday at the 2024 Open. That has given way to what should be one of the more wide-open final rounds of the last several years.
Wind and rain meant the back nine at Royal Troon played as "probably the hardest nine holes that I'll ever play," according to world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who shot 71 amid the conditions. "I shouldn't say ever," he added, "but it's definitely the hardest that I've played to this point."
Scheffler was not alone feeling that way. Dustin Johnson called it "the hardest nine holes I think you could ever play in golf right now." Because the weather earlier in the day was far more genteel, it produced a condensed leaderboard in which the early starters surged and the leaders were brought back to the rest of the field.
As a result, there are now 11 golfers within four shots of the lead held by Billy Horschel, who put on a scrambling display for the ages over the back nine Saturday.
Not every golfer in contention has the same chance to win, of course, but they at least have a chance (which is more than most can say). Of course, if the conditions play out Sunday as they did Saturday, perhaps someone posts 64 or 65 early and the leaders fall back again.
"These things are so weather dependent," said Xander Schauffele, who is one stroke behind Horschel. "If it was the same as today, if someone was even par or a couple over and they shoot 7 under, 8 under, I'd say that's a pretty realistic chance of winning."
So, perhaps there are more players in the mix than we can foresee. For now, we're only going to evaluate the nine that are under par. It would be surprising -- even with inclement weather -- if one of these nine did not go on to win the golf tournament, so let's rank them from most likely to least.
Xander Schauffele (-3)
Odds: 33/10
Why he'll win: Of the late starters Saturday, Schauffele looked the best. His 1-under 69 was one of just two rounds in the 60s from the last several groups (Horschel had the other). Also, Schauffele ranks No. 4 in the field from tee to green this week, and he is having the best season of his career. It will take the confidence he has from closing out the PGA Championship earlier this season to push him into the winner's circle at Troon.
Why he won't: Schauffele gets run over by the next man on this list.
Scottie Scheffler (-2)
Odds: 18/5
Why he'll win: Stop me if you've heard this before: Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained tee to green but sits 68th in putting. Flushers rise to the top of major leaderboards, and Scheffler is your favorite flusher's favorite flusher right now. His strike into the par-3 17th with 3 wood that led to birdie is one I'll be thinking about for a long time. He has lurked all week, and though there are technically nine players under par, it does feel like a bit of a two-horse race between him and Schauffele.
Brilliant approach on the par-3 17th from world number one, Scottie Scheffler. pic.twitter.com/F7s8NAR4kY
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024
Why he won't: This Open hinges on Scottie's putter. If he makes putts on Sunday, he will probably win. If he doesn't, Schauffele will probably take the Claret Jug. It should be that simple unless somebody else on this list plays the round of his life.
Justin Rose (-3)
Odds: 8-1
Why he'll win: Rose is a great champion, and he's playing with the urgency of somebody who is about to be six years from making his PGA Tour Champions debut. He knows this is probably his last rip at an Open (possibly any major), and if it's not, then it's at least close. What Shane Bacon said on Saturday about Rose's focus and intensity rings true. Everybody wants this Open, but not everybody's time is running out, and not everybody has the experience to deal with feelings they'll feel on a major Sunday.
I remember the level of focus Phil showed at the PGA in '21 and Tiger on the second nine in '19 ... there was a feeling of, "this could be my last chance to get one of these" from both of them.
— Shane Bacon (@shanebacon) July 20, 2024
Rose had that exact same look today from the jump. Every single shot he hits looks…
Why he won't: Rose is unlikely to implode, but I'm not sure he has the firepower to keep up with Scheffler and Schauffele. He has just one top-10 finish this season, which mostly gets thrown out the window on Sunday at a major but is still worth considering as it relates to four days of form against two of the best in the world.
Billy Horschel (-4)
Odds: 11/2
Why he'll win: His short game was off the charts Saturday, and he made several championship-saving pars to get to Sunday where anything can happen. He's second from tee to green behind Scheffler, and more importantly, first in driving accuracy, which has been paramount this week with how easy doubles and triples have been to make.
Last 10 groups today
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 20, 2024
Billy Horschel and Xander Schauffele: 5-under
Everyone else: 60-over
Why he won't: Horschel has put together a nice career and earned a ton of money, but he's never really been in this kind of spot before. He played so well on Saturday, but given how short he is off the tee and how many pars he saved, it's easy to see this coming undone if he gets some bad wind directions in the final pairing alongside Thriston Lawrence.
Sam Burns (-3)
Odds: 17/2
Why he'll win: Burns seems to want the spotlight, and he loves getting the ball in clutch situations. If he can give himself a chance from tee to green, he's capable of making everything he looks at on Sunday. He's the player out of this group I'm most intrigued by in terms of how he responds. His best finish at a major so far is a T9 at last month's U.S. Open, which is his only top 10 ever.
Why he won't: Burns has been tremendously up and down all week. He was 7 over through his first 11 holes on Thursday before fighting all the way back to 3 under by Sunday. Normally, that's not a great formula for winning one's first major championship.
Shane Lowry (-1)
Odds: 25-1
Why he'll win: He's the only golfer on this list who knows what it feels like to win an Open. Lowry had horrific stuff on Saturday, and yet, he's only three back of the lead. That would not have been appealing to him on the 8th tee box when he was 8 under, but I bet it would have been this time a week ago. Lowry plays golf, not golf swing, and when The Open is on the line on Sunday, players better be playing golf and not golf swing. His bounce back on Sunday should be terrific.
Why he won't: He could not have played worse on Saturday, and I'm concerned that it got to his head a bit. On Friday, he was talking about what a good mental space he was in, but on Saturday, he was complaining about the setup. Golfers are fragile, even tough ones like Lowry, and so are their games. I believe in his recovery across the final round, but if you look at his 62nd ranking from tee to green and 74th ranking in putting on Saturday, I can easily see why one would not.
Russell Henley (-3)
Odds: 9-1
Why he'll win: Henley is surprisingly third in the field from tee to green this week. He's hitting the ball quite well, and it would be nice to steal this win from several bigger name players. He's also been trending toward a major win -- slowly but surely. Henley finished T4 at the 2023 Masters and T7 at the U.S. Open last month.
Why he won't: What Henley did on Saturday out in front of the the leaders is a lot different than being in that lead pack on Sunday. We've seen him in the final pairing on Sunday at a major before, and it did not go well. In the final round of the 2021 U.S. Open, he played in the final pairing and failed to finish in the top 10. He's grown since then, and we'll find out on Sunday just how much.
Dan Brown (-3)
Odds: 22-1
Why he'll win: There's a magic air about him right now. For somebody who has missed six of seven cuts on the DP World Tour and had to qualify into this tournament, there kind of has to be. He has not folded even though players of a much greater quality have done so around him. He just keeps hanging around despite not hitting the ball all that well on Friday or Saturday. He's lingering, possibly even lurking.
Why he won't: The game is not trending in the right direction for Brown, who played the last two holes on Saturday in 3 over. He's 40th in this field from tee to green and basically making every putt he looks at. It would be truly awesome for him to become the third player in the last 100 years to win the first major he played in, but unfortunately, his Cinderella story is probably going to come to an end on the front nine on Sunday.
Thriston Lawrence (-3)
Odds: 14-1
Why he'll win: There's not a good case for Lawrence to take the Claret Jug outside of the fact that he's in the final pairing. If you wanted to talk me into Adam Scott or Justin Thomas at even par, I would probably take them over Lawrence winning this tournament.
Why he won't: With all due respect to Lawrence, he caught the easiest of the weather on Saturday and does not have the game nor the pedigree to win major championships. It could happen, but it probably won't. This has the feel of Daniel Berger and Tony Finau in the final pairing on Sunday at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock when they got run over by Brooks Koepka.
Rick Gehman, Patrick McDonald and Greg DuCharme recap a busy moving day at Royal Troon and set you up for Sunday's final round at the Open Championship. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
