Free agent preview: Shaun Marcum
Shaun Marcum joins the ranks of injury-prone pitchers like Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets and Rich Harden to hit the free agent market. Can he pull in multiple guaranteed years?
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| Shaun Marcum could be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but his health has been a problem. (US Presswire) |
There's a specific class of pitchers to hit the free-agent market with regularity: the injury-riddled, would-be top-of-the-rotation starter.
Erik Bedard has been head of this class for the past three years. Rich Harden was its living embodiment in 2010. New names pop up year-in and year-out. Ben Sheets. Chien-Ming Wang. Chris Capuano. Justin Duchscherer. Jason Schmidt. Brandon Webb. The list will go on as long as UCLs are there to be snapped.
Add Shaun Marcum to the list. Marcum showed potential in 2008, running a 3.39 ERA through 25 starts in the bloody AL East, but Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the rest of the season and all of the next one.
Marcum pitched fantastically for his first 60 starts back from the debilitating injury. He first showed he could still handle the AL East in 2010 as he posted a 3.64 ERA and 3.74 FIP in 31 starts. Then he helped propel the Brewers to their first division championship since joining the National League; on Sept. 9, 2011, he owned a 3.11 ERA supported by a sharp 2.92 K/BB.
Then everything unraveled. Marcum allowed 18 runs in his final four regular-season starts on a stunning 32 hits and four home runs, all squeezed into 24 1/3 innings. Then the playoffs: three starts, 9 2/3 innings, 17 hits, 16 runs, three home runs and three losses.
Marcum was fine when healthy in 2012, albeit a touch below the past two seasons: a 3.70 ERA and 4.10 FIP including a 2.66 K/BB made Marcum a roughly average pitcher. But he only made 21 starts, missing 71 days to right elbow tightness -- a concern for any would-be free-agent pitcher, much less one with a Tommy John surgery on his record.
The 2011 meltdown adds an extra concern -- even if he stays healthy for the regular season, can Marcum be relied upon to last through and perform in October?
This is not to suggest Marcum lacks the clutch gene due to three poor postseason starts. Marcum had already thrown 200 innings in the regular season and 395 in just two years since coming off major surgery. His brutal September leading into October suggested he was burnt out, and his playoff performance offered no alternative theories; would the same thing happen again if a team did manage to coax a full season out of Marcum's right arm?
Given the breadth of the concerns, Marcum's is a case that screams incentive-laden, low-guarantee contract, likely in the form of a hefty club or vesting option to reward a healthy season. Pitchers like Sheets and Harden consistently received one-year deals worth $7 million-$10 million, and Marcum can probably expect something similar on the market -- and perhaps a second guaranteed year if things break right -- this winter.
These risk-reward pitchers like Marcum can appeal to teams of all situations. Basement teams see him as a flippable asset. Middling teams see him as the lottery ticket to push them into contention. Contenders see him as the final piece of the puzzle.
The Brewers are likely out, but almost any of the other 29 teams could be a match for Marcum. He proved in 2008 and 2010 that he could handle any division at his best with his proficiency in the AL East. The Red Sox, Twins, Royals, Pirates, and Indians all appear to have a hole in their rotations Marcum could fill easily, but other teams could create a need with offseason moves and swoop in as well.
Inevitably, Marcum's fate will depend on how the rest of the market shapes up. He is a silver or even a bronze medal in a marketplace packed with pitchers of similar ability and superior durability.
Shaun Marcum is the risk-reward proposition that we see the majors faced with at least once every year. The question is simply who is willing to (or who will be forced to) pay the premium once the market settles.
Potential suitors: Red Sox, Twins, Royals, Pirates, Indians
Long shots: Nationals , Blue Jays , Cubs , Marlins
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the latest rumors from bloggers Chris Cwik, Jack Moore and R.J. White, follow @MLBRumorsCBS.















