The Phightin's barged to 102 wins a season ago, but they've tumbled hard from that lofty perch. Now let us mourn their mathematical elimination from the playoff race ...  

What went right

The second half went right. Since the break, the Phils went 41-28, which is good for a healthy winning percentage of .594. If nothing else, that's a strong psychological foundation heading into 2013. For what that's worth.

GM Ruben Amaro got a reasonably nice haul for the vets he flipped at the non-waiver deadline. Most notably, Tommy Joseph, who was acquired by Philly as part of the Hunter Pence deal with the Giants, immediately becomes the catcher of the future.

And speaking of catchers, Carlos Ruiz enjoyed a career year at the plate. He'll fall short of a qualifying number of plate appearances, but there's no assailing a .325/.396/.544 batting line from your backstop.

Cole Hamels was, as usual, an asset. His 208 1/3 innings to go with an ERA of 3.11 might yield a top-five finish in the NL Cy Young balloting. Chase Utley was also typically productive after returning from injury (122 OPS+).

What went wrong

The first half. A .425 WPCT before the break effectively buried the Phillies this season. Needless to say, that was a steep fall for a team that won 102 games a year ago. The offense also generally stunk up the joint. Despite the fact that the Phillies play in a hitter's park, they ranked a middling eighth in the NL in runs scored.

Roy Halladay showed serious signs of decline in 2012, as pretty much every indicator -- innings, ERA, K rate, BB rate, HR rate -- trended in the wrong direction. The fear at this point is that he's already in his deep decline phase after an outstanding 2011.

MVP: Hamels. The franchise lefty pitched his way to a healthy contract extension, and, at age 28, he should provide more of the same for the next several seasons. This honor would belong to Ruiz if not for his missing more than 30 games because of a foot injury.

LVP: Ryan Howard. On the one hand, Howard is entitled to some slack since he was coming off a serious Achilles' injury. On the other hand, something much more than a .220/.296/.425 slash line is expected from a defensively challenged first baseman signed to a budget-crippling contract.

MLB free agents to be: OF Juan Pierre. To state the obvious, he should not be re-signed. 

Offseason gameplan

How much can they really do? The Phillies already have a whopping $130 million committed to just nine players 2013, and the upcoming free agent class isn't a particularly strong one. They're also quite old. With the Nationals and Braves better positioned to contend in the near-term, the Phillies will be divisional underdogs.

Still, the starting pitching is potentially impressive (but that would require at least a modest rebound for Halladay), and the presence of a second wild card means there's a solid chance at contention. They badly need help on offense. As long as they're "pot committed" in terms of payroll next season, why not spring for a big free-agent bat like Josh Hamilton and give yourself a real shot at contention? It likely won't be enough, but the Phillies don't seem ready for a full embrace of the rebuilding process.

Ridiculously premature prediction for 2013

It's a third-place finish and no playoff berth in what turns out to be Charlie Manuel's final season at the helm.

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