White: Sleepers 1.0 | Breakouts 1.0 | Busts 1.0
Melchior: Sleepers 1.0 | Breakouts 1.0 | Busts 1.0

The annual unveiling of our sleepers lists may just look like another sales job -- we analysts trying to sell you on the players whose value we especially like going into this year's drafts. For us, it is indeed an exercise in persuasion, but it's also one of discovery.

Each of the dozen players featured here should give owners a good return on the pick or bid they invest in them, but the reason why they have made this list is because of what I learned about them this offseason. Before I did my offseason research, I didn't realize that Wilson Ramos' power rebounded late in the season or that Jed Lowrie had actually been on a brisk doubles pace before his finger injury. These are the kinds of statistical tidbits that give me a new perspective on a player's outlook. If not for these discoveries, I'd be as down on most, if not all, of the players on this list as many other Fantasy owners are.

The thing about sleepers is that they still tend to be fraught with risk and uncertainty. I gave nobody here a Roto value higher than $15, and a few selections, like Lowrie, Michael Morse and Gavin Floyd are really intended as recommendations for the endgame. What they all have in common is that there is something in their recent history suggesting they could produce far more than what many owners are likely to expect. In some cases, that means there are subtle signs of a bounceback season, while for others, there is potential for a player to sustain a recent level of performance that could strike some as fluky. That mismatch of reality and perception makes each of these players an ideal fallback candidate, should the higher-end players you covet wind up in some other owner's hands.

This is just my initial list of sleepers. As spring training camps open and developments unfold, players' values may rise or fall. So could the perceptions of these players by our fellow owners. Keep your eyes peeled for a reboot of this column as we draw closer to opening day, as there are sure to be some changes.

For now, though, these are the 12 players whom I think will provide the biggest bang for the buck ... or draft pick.

Miguel Montero, C, Cubs

Over the last two seasons, Montero has been awful at the plate more than he's been good, but there has been enough good production amidst the wretched to signal a buy-low opportunity. Through his first 75 games of 2014, Montero boasted a .265/.347/.433 slash line with 11 home runs and 46 RBI. For the remainder of the past two years, Montero has been pretty dreadful, but I can't just write off this three-month stretch where he performed more like the not-too-distant version of himself that was viable as a No. 1 catcher. The power, as evidenced by an average flyball distance of 290 feet during his hot stretch, was impressive, and it doesn't make sense that it would have left Montero for good over the latter portion of last season. He has been fairly durable as well, so his first season with the Cubs could be a resurgent one. He's one of the better fallback options for a No. 1 catcher once the more popular names have come off the board.

Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals

Ramos' last two seasons have been interrupted by hamstring injuries, so one has to wonder if he is turning into the Nelson Cruz of catchers. You may have to just accept that Ramos is going to spend some time on the DL most seasons, but like Cruz, he has shown the ability to hit for immense power when healthy. We didn't see that during the first half of last season, but then he started off the season by breaking a bone in his hand and undergoing surgery. He picked up his power pace late in the year, clouting eight homers over his last 39 games. Even if he misses a few weeks of playing time, Ramos has enough power to hit 20 or more home runs while not decimating your batting average. He has similar power appeal to Yan Gomes and Brian McCann, but because of the playing time risk, you can get probably get him several rounds later.

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Marlins

Morse's lone season with the Giants was his best since 2011, though his 16 home runs were largely front-loaded, with 11 of them coming in his first 54 games. He couldn't maintain the 30-homer pace, but he kept the doubles coming, and aside from a cold month of June, Morse continued to hit for a decent average, batting .287 through July and August. (An oblique injury cost him virtually all of September.) Though he didn't quite sustain the level of production from his best years with the Nationals, he wasn't far off, and he did this while battling a series of injuries and playing home games at AT&T Park. Injuries could continue to be a part of the story for Morse, but he has shown that he has enough power to handle any park, including his new home in Miami. It's never entirely safe to count on Morse for health and consistency, but the upside of 25 to 30 homers with a .290 batting average is still there. He will likely be available as a late-rounder, and at least in five-outfielder leagues, you will have a hard time finding someone with similar potential at that point in the draft.

Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals

Wong has stated as one of his goals for the coming season that he wants to increase his batting average. His .249 mark from last season was surprisingly low, but even if he fails in his quest, there's an awful lot to recommend him as a starting second baseman in Fantasy. He seems locked in for 20 or more steals, and once he started launching more flyballs over the latter half of the season, his home run power emerged. Not only that, but Wong's barrage of homers didn't come at the expense of his line drive rate or with the side effect of more popups. A higher batting average with a 20/20 season isn't an impossible dream. Even with 15 home runs and a .260 average, he's a top 10 second baseman.

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Ryan Zimmerman, 3B/OF, Nationals

Yes, we know that Zimmerman is injury-prone, and we got a big reminder of that last season when he missed roughly two months apiece with thumb and hamstring injuries. Yet Zimmerman's health risk could be overstated; he has played in at least 140 games in four of the last six seasons. That doesn't qualify him for Iron Man status, but it does mean that more often than not, you've been able to plug in a replacement for just a few weeks and not miss much production. Last season aside, Zimmerman has produced ably when he has played, steadily notching 25 or so homers with an average right around .280. Even if he falls a little short of those numbers, he could still be among the top six third baseman and would almost certainly be in the top 10 in what could be his final year of eligibility at the position. He didn't leave the good impression Kyle Seager and Josh Harrison did last season, but I expect he will outproduce those two trendier hitters.

Jed Lowrie, SS, Astros

Coming off a season in which Lowrie batted .249 with six home runs and ranked outside the top 15 shortstops in Fantasy, it's safe to say his perceived value has taken a hit. Even in that disappointing campaign, there were signs of the player who was a top-10 performer at his position just a year earlier. Lowrie maintained the notable gains he made in his strikeout and line drive rates, the latter of which was the result of a conscious decision to change his swing upon leaving Houston for Oakland. Before the fractured finger he suffered in August, Lowrie was only slightly behind the 45-doubles pace he set in 2013, so his line drive approach was still paying dividends. He just didn't get rewarded with a high batting average, despite the fact he had been hitting to the opposite field more often against right-handed pitchers.

Now Lowrie is heading back to Houston, and despite his return to the homer-friendly park, he said in a recent interview that he doesn't intend to change his approach. The venue itself should help to restore some of Lowrie's home run power, but as long as he keeps making contact and hitting drives, he would seem to be a lock for a much higher batting average, possibly in the .280s. Lowrie also said some of his deep drives that left the park in 2013 died short of the wall last season. A glimpse of his spray chart confirms that account, so a return to 10-to-15 home runs is a reasonable expectation. Lowrie could fall short of the top 10 shortstops this time, but he'll be close enough that he needs to be drafted in standard mixed leagues.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, Mets

When Cuddyer won the National League batting title in 2013 with a .331 average, Fantasy owners could have easily assumed it was a fluke. After all, he had never hit as high as .285 previously in his career, dating back to 2001. Even in his first season as a Rockie in 2012, Cuddyer mustered just a .260 batting average. Last year, however, Cuddyer came back with a .332 mark, though it was just over 49 games, as he missed time due to shoulder and hamstring injuries. Was this an illusion created by a small sample or the sign of lasting improvement? Something did change radically for Cuddyer two seasons ago, as he started to hit to the opposite field with much greater regularity.

Cuddyer recently revealed in an interview that he made an effort to go the other way more often when he came to Colorado, as he had previously given up on that approach, which he claimed didn't produce results at his former home of Target Field. However, it took time for that intention to bear fruits as he adjusted to playing in the National League for the first time. In both his second and third years in Colorado, though, he hit over .310 on grounders. After three seasons with the Rockies, Cuddyer will now embark on a new chapter with the Mets. He won't have as many adjustments this time, as he won't be changing leagues, but he does have a new ballpark to adjust to. It may be encouraging that new teammate Daniel Murphy, who hits to the opposite field often, has posted a slightly above-average .316 BABIP at Citi Field. Cuddyer's numbers are likely to decrease to some degree now that he has left Colorado, but his ability to adapt to new environments could blunt the impact of the change in venues. His history of injuries should also depress his perceived value on Draft Day, but he could deliver a huge return if drafted as a No. 4 outfielder.

A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks

Pollock began the 2014 season probably best known for his robust defense, and an early season hot streak got Fantasy owners to take notice of his offense. Between his three-months-plus hiatus due to a broken hand and the relative lack of production he gave owners when he returned, Pollock may be closer to being an afterthought again. Particularly in Rotisserie leagues, if you overlook Pollock as an option for your No. 4 outfield slot, you will do so at your own risk. He may not be the 15-to-20 homer threat he was on pace to be before last season's injury, but he doesn't need to be. Pollock has the speed and contact skills to bat .280 or higher, is a solid bet to steal at least 20 bases, and as the presumptive leadoff hitter in Arizona, he could score 90 runs.

Mike Minor, SP, Braves

With Minor checking in with a 4.77 ERA last season, his 3.21 mark in 2013 -- the only sub-4.00 ERA in his five-year career -- has the appearance of an outlier. Given that he battled shoulder issues for much of the season and that there was little that looked unsustainable from his 2013 stat line, I like Minor's chances for a strong rebound season. He's in his peak years, hasn't experienced any loss of velocity and he even introduced a sinker that helped to increase his ground ball rate. Minor's slider frequently got clobbered, and if he can re-establish it, he could be even better than he was two seasons ago. If there's a concern about Minor's value, it's that the Braves' depleted offense may not provide much run support. Even so, he could be an effective and inexpensive option for filling your No. 4 starter spot.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros

Just a year ago, it looked like Keuchel was on the outside looking in at the Astros' rotation, but as we now know the lefty not only won a job as a starter but pitched beyond seemingly everyone's expectations. Even with a slight dip in his strikeout rate, Keuchel was able to shave more than two runs off his ERA (from 5.15 to 2.93) as he improved his control, got grounders galore on his sinker and changeup, and for the first time in his major league career stranded runners at a rate that was at least league-average. He was also highly efficient, which was how he was able to rack up 200 innings in just 29 starts. Now as the Astros' ace, he should make more starts and log more innings, all the while employing a skill set that should translate into an ERA near 3.00 once again. Pitchers whose fastball typically sits in the lower 90s don't tend to excite Fantasy owners, but expecting Keuchel to merely repeat as a top 40 starter might be expecting too little. And many owners are probably expecting less than that.

Jimmy Nelson, SP, Brewers

Now that the Brewers have moved Yovani Gallardo and created a spot for Nelson in their rotation, he'll be harder to get on the cheap than he would have been otherwise, but enough owners will likely be put off by the 2-9 record and 4.93 ERA he recorded last season. Nelson did allow a few too many ground ball base hits (.263 batting average against on grounders) and stranded only two out of every three baserunners, but then again, those deeds were not entirely his own doing. Of the things that Nelson could fully control, he did very well. A 10 percent whiff rate, 64 percent strikes-thrown rate and 50 percent ground ball rate don't match up with a bloated ERA. As a 25-year-old who put up sterling numbers in the Pacific Coast League last year, Nelson could post even better peripherals this year, and maybe this time, he will get more help from his infield and bullpen, as well as better luck.

Gavin Floyd, SP, Indians

Floyd is 32 and coming off back-to-back seasons shortened by elbow surgeries, so he's not low on risk. His glory year was 2008, when he won 17 games, but his ERA was a pedestrian 3.84. There's not much in Floyd's résumé that would recommend him to mixed league owners -- that is, unless you take a close look at what he did in nine starts with the Braves last season. Floyd threw his curve lower in the zone and the swing-and-miss rate on the pitch soared. With a higher chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone, Floyd posted a 2.2 BB/9 ratio that was the second-lowest of his career, and with a 12.5 percent whiff rate, he showed some promise for a higher strikeout rate. Floyd will probably go undrafted in most standard mixed leagues, so you could take your chances and monitor him as a potential waiver pickup. If you're unimpressed with your last-round or reserve-round options, you might as well take a gamble on Floyd in the event that he picks up with the Indians where he left off with the Braves.