You should avoid these players in your Fantasy Baseball drafts at all costs! The end… Just kidding! Of course, there's more nuance than that. Fantasy Baseball is a game built around value. Whether you play in a snake draft or an auction league, selecting a player will cost you something. That cost is representative of many things: a player's skillset, track record, upside, downside, and everything in between. When you combine all of that together, you wind up with a player's average draft position, auction price, or in other words, his value.
- Sleepers 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
Sometimes we don't agree with a player's value. If we think somebody is undervalued, they're probably a sleeper or breakout. If somebody is overvalued, then they're likely considered a bust. Of course, nobody has all the answers. You might love a player I think is a bust and vice versa. It comes down to perception. I do not believe the 10 names below are worth their February NFBC ADP, for different reasons. As a result, I broke this article down into three categories: injury risk, overvalued, and bottom-out potential. Injury risk is self-explanatory. Overvalued is reserved for players going a little higher than I think they should. Bottom-out potential are names that could really sink you for multiple reasons.
INJURY RISKS
Jazz Chisholm, 3B/OF, Yankees
Updated 2/21: This one hurts. Not only am I a Yankees fan but I like Jazz Chisholm. He plays the game with flair and swag. It rubs some people the wrong way, but not me. The problem with drafting Jazz in Fantasy is that he's a boom-or-bust player who'll likely cost you a third-round pick. He has tremendous upside and flashed that with the Yankees. In 46 games with the Bronx Bombers, Jazz hit .273 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and an .825 OPS. That's a 150-game pace of 35 homers and 58 steals! If he comes anywhere close to that, we're talking about Jazz as a first-round pick next year. The problem is that he has a considerable injury history.
Jazz had a career year last season because he was able to stay on the field. The truth is he's only played more than 124 games once in four full seasons. He's dealt with some nasty injuries, too. Back in 2022, Jazz was limited to 60 games because of a stress fracture in his back. Then in 2023, he was limited to 97 games with turf toe, which he had surgery on after the season. After getting traded to the Yankees, Jazz landed on the Injured List with a sprained UCL in his left elbow. After returning from the injury, he had a rough September, which carried over into the postseason. While Jazz did hit two homers with six steals in 14 playoff games, he hit just .182 with a .559 OPS. Since writing this back in January, we learned that Jazz is expected to play second base for the Yankees. That will give him triple position eligibility early in the season. Considering second base is a shallow position, this does make Jazz more appealing in Fantasy. It doesn't change that I'm worried about his injury risk. I don't mind boom-or-bust players. I just prefer to get them in the mid-to-late rounds. If Jazz hits his upside, I'll look foolish. I'm just not expecting it given his injury track record.
Chris Sale, SP, Braves
I have lots of questions regarding Chris Sale but before we address those, I have to discuss a mental hurdle of my own. Last year Sale's ADP was 132.6. He went on to have a stellar season, earning the National League Cy Young award. Now his ADP is 43.2. I can't help but shake the classic Fantasy cliché of buy-low and sell-high. The time to draft Sale was last year when he was outside the Top-100 picks. This cost is much harder to stomach, and for good reason! Sale has an extensive injury history, some injuries more fluky than others. Just last year his season ended prematurely due to back spasms. Sale couldn't even pitch in the Braves' Wild Card series.
There were signs he was pitching through something towards the end, too. Sale averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball last season. In three of his final four starts, Sale averaged under 94 MPH on the pitch. In his final start, his fastball was all the way down to 92.7 MPH. Maybe he just wore down towards the end? It's possible. Sale threw 177.2 innings last year, his most since 2017. How will his arm respond this year? Can he maintain Cy Young form over the course of a full season again at 36 years old? I think they're legitimate questions when you consider Sale's injury history and the fact that he just ended last season hurt. I'm betting against a repeat, and am thus avoiding in the third or fourth round of drafts.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers
I have similar thoughts about both Jazz Chisholm and Jacob deGrom. Both players have massive upside but incredible downside due to injury risk. When healthy, deGrom is a freak. From 2018-2023, deGrom pitched to a 2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP with 921 strikeouts over 675.2 innings. That's 12.3 K/9, a 35.6% strikeout rate and a 17.5% swinging strike rate. These are numbers you only see from relievers. Unfortunately, he underwent his second Tommy John surgery in 2023. While we're still learning more about pitchers with multiple TJ surgeries, the track record we do have is not great. It's about a coin flip's chance a pitcher will return to form following a second TJ surgery. It worked for Nathan Eovaldi. It hasn't worked so far for Walker Buehler.
That means on top of his injury risk, we also have performance risk. Just because deGrom was a freakish talent before his latest surgery, doesn't mean he will regain that form. For whatever this is worth, deGrom posted a 143 Stuff+ in his tiny sample of 10.2 innings last season. To put that in perspective, Carlos Rodon led all qualified starters with 122 Stuff+. Maybe deGrom will just return to form like nothing ever happened. The problem is you have to pay to find out. DeGrom's NFBC ADP is 53 as the SP11 off the board. I have him down at SP18. At some point, I'd be willing to take the risk, just not in the fifth round. Personally, I like to build my Fantasy team a secure base in the early rounds before I start to select riskier players. As a result, I'm fading deGrom at this cost.
Bryan Woo, SP, Mariners
This is another tough one. I really like Bryan Woo. He has a dominant fastball and, like most of the Mariners starters, has immaculate control. The problem is that his arm feels like a ticking time bomb. Woo was first placed on the Injured List with right forearm inflammation in August 2023. He returned and finished the season strong. That made him a popular sleeper candidate heading into last season until we got to spring training. Woo suffered another injury last spring and was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation in late March. He made his season debut in May but dealt with more hiccups along the way. Woo left a start early in May with arm tightness and then was scratched from a start in mid-June due to forearm soreness. He went for an MRI and, thankfully, everything came back clean.
The Mariners went on to play it safe with Woo in June and July. He exceeded four innings just twice in that two-month stretch. Something changed, however, in August. On August 2, Woo fired seven shutout innings against the Phillies. Over his final 11 starts, Woo posted a 3.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP with 64 strikeouts to seven walks, a 21.6% K-BB rate. He also went six-plus innings in eight of those 11 starts. The Mariners unleashed Woo and he responded with high-end numbers. That's the last we saw and, thus, the last thing we remember. I'm still worried. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Woo already has one Tommy John surgery under his belt and has dealt with lingering arm issues the previous two years. Maybe August was just a turning point in his career and he'll go on to provide SP2 numbers. Unfortunately, I think it's more likely things go the other way and we lose Woo for an extended period of time due to injury.
OVERVALUED
Willy Adames, SS, Giants
Willy Adames just had a magical season. He finished as the 19th overall player in Roto and 14th best hitter in H2H points leagues. He set career-highs across the board with 32 home runs, 112 RBI, and 21 steals. Adames' 13 three-run homers tied Ken Griffey Jr. for most ever in a single season. As a result, he earned himself a seven-year, $182 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, the largest in franchise history. While I'm happy Adames got paid, I don't love this move for Fantasy. According to Statcast, American Family Field is the sixth-best park for right-handed power while Oracle Park is 28th. If you look at team context, the Brewers were sixth in runs scored and second in steals. The Giants were 17th in runs and 29th in steals. On the surface, this move is bad all around for Adames' value.
Plus, you're buying at Adames' peak. If you look under the hood, Adames didn't change much in his profile. He did hit more fly balls, which helped with the home runs, but the counting stats and steals seem fluky. If you combine 2022 and 2023, Adames' average season was a .228 batting average, 28 homers, 78 runs, 89 RBI, and seven steals. That's closer to what I'm expecting but with a better batting average. Let's say he hits .240-.250. Even then I don't think Adames is worthy of a Top-85 pick. Just last year his NFBC ADP was 177.6! I'll pass on Adames at this cost, opting to pay up for a different shortstop or wait on Bo Bichette, somebody I expect to bounce back in 2025.
Jake Burger, 1B/3B, Rangers
This is another tough one. Who doesn't love a good burger!? Jake Burger has one particular skill and that's hitting home runs. Burger has 63 home runs over the past two seasons, tied for 15th in baseball. The power is supported by Statcast, too, as seen by his 91.3 MPH average exit velocity and 12.3% barrel rate. But that's kind of all Burger provides. He's a one-trick pony in that way. He doesn't hit for batting average, get on base, or play good defense. From a real baseball perspective, Burger's skillset isn't all that valuable. That brings us to his offseason move.
On the surface, going from the Miami Marlins to the Texas Rangers is a huge upgrade. Marlins Park is 22nd in home run park factor while Globe Life Field is fifth. The Marlins were 27th in runs scored while the Rangers were 18th and we expect the Rangers to bounce back as a whole in 2025. This is both a good and bad thing for Burger. It should be good for his power and counting stats. It's bad for his playing time floor. Last season Burger hit .225 with a .635 OPS in the first half with the Marlins. If he gets off to a rough start like that on a contending team like the Rangers, Burger could be out of a job. The Rangers have depth. They signed Joc Pederson to DH, plus they have names like Josh Smith and Leody Taveras on the bench. That puts pressure on Burger to perform early on. On top of that, I don't really understand Burger's 109 ADP. He's going a round ahead of Matt Chapman, 50 picks ahead of Eugenio Suarez, and 70 picks ahead of Isaac Paredes. Burger should provide power but there's risk here, which makes him overvalued at his cost.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
It's about time for me to put my anti-fun hat on. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a young, electric player who's already an elite defender. He improved on offense last season, too. Over his final 53 games, Crow-Armstrong hit .287 with seven homers, eight steals, and an .808 OPS. With that said, I don't just expect him to be that player now. At 23 years old, there will still be bumps in the road. His early NFBC ADP is 139.9 as the OF35 off the board. That seems pretty rich when you consider the options going behind Crow-Armstrong.
For example, Tommy Edman going 40 picks later with Cedric Mullins 75 picks later! Crow-Armstrong might have more upside than all three. He also might have more downside. The playing time is safe. Crow-Armstrong is already one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. His offensive contributions, however, are anything but safe. For the first four months last season, Crow-Armstrong slashed .194/.239/.311 with three home runs and 20 steals. He could wind up causing more damage than good if he's in your Fantasy lineup everyday. Overall, I agree with Crow-Armstrong's ATC projection: .246 batting average with 14 homers and 32 steals. Is that worthy of a Top-150 pick and should he go ahead of those more proven names? I don't think so. I'll pass on Crow-Armstrong at that cost.
BOTTOM OUT POTENTIAL
Robert Suarez, RP, Padres
Updated 2/21: To be fair, any reliever has bottom-out potential. I just happen to think Robert Suarez and Pete Fairbanks have elevated risk. Suarez was awesome last season. He racked up 36 saves for the Padres, fourth-most in baseball. Suarez isn't your traditional closer, however, considering he doesn't miss many bats. His 23% strikeout rate and 8.2 K/9 both ranked below league average for relievers. Part of the reason Suarez isn't an elite bat-misser might be his repertoire. He's extremely fastball-reliant. He threw his four-seam a whopping 71% of the time and his sinker an additional 16%. Suarez didn't really have a go-to off-speed pitch last season.
Perhaps that repertoire also made him a bit predictable. Suarez regressed in the second half and posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP after the All-Star break. The strikeouts went down and the walks went up during that stretch. On top of performance concerns, the Padres have entertained trade offers on Suarez this offseason. Apparently, the Padres are looking to lower their payroll a bit, plus they have other really talented relievers in Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada. Suarez had an awesome 2024 season but relievers are extremely volatile year over year and it's possible he gets traded to a team where he isn't even the closer. Since writing this article back in January, Suarez's ADP has dropped from the 80s to around 115. That's much more palatable in drafts but my concerns remain. If he stumbles early, the Padres could turn to other really talented relievers.
Hunter Greene, SP, CIN
This is another anti-fun pick of mine. Hunter Greene just had his breakout season. He posted a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 169 strikeouts over 150.1 innings. He finished as the SP14 in Roto and SP16 in Head-to-Head points per game. How did Greene improve so much? It was mostly quality of contact. He did a much better job limiting hard contact and barrels. His average exit velocity against dropped from 90.1 MPH in 2023 to 87.3 MPH in 2024. His barrel rate again dropped from 9% to 5.2%. Both were massive improvements. But how sticky is that year over year? How much does a pitcher influence quality of contact? We saw a similar improvement from Dylan Cease in 2022. He came back the next year and allowed a bunch of hard contact again. Now just because that happened to Cease doesn't necessarily mean it will happen to Greene, but it is possible.
There are other concerns. Greene still is a fly ball pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. According to Statcast, Great American Ballpark is the most homer-friendly park in baseball, and it isn't very close. Greene has a 48% fly ball rate for his career and, while he did a great job avoiding barrels last season, I don't trust that to remain consistent. On top of that, Greene has an extensive injury history. He's dealt with shoulder problems in the past and, just last season was on the Injured List with a sore right elbow. This is a major concern, especially when you consider how hard Greene throws. There's a wide range of outcomes here. Greene could pick up where he left off and be a borderline ace now. He could also regress to the pitcher he was in 2022 and 2023, plus comes with elevated injury risk. I will not be targeting Greene as a SP2 going inside the Top-110 picks.
Pete Fairbanks, RP, Rays
Fairbanks has been a pretty reliable closer for a few years now. He has 23-plus saves in back-to-back seasons. Why do the Rays keep trying to trade him then? Well, part of it is this is what the Rays do. They're constantly wheeling and dealing. Another part might be that they're trying to sell while they can. Fairbanks' skills took a big step back last season. His K/9 dropped from 13.5 in 2023 all the way down to 8.7 in 2024. Over the past three years, his swinging strike rate has dropped from 17% to 12.9% to just 9.5% last season. Part of the skills decline could be his velocity. Fairbanks' fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 MPH in 2023 to 97.3 MPH last year. It's especially concerning when you consider his injury history.
Throughout his career, Fairbanks has dealt with all kinds of problems, including forearm, shoulder, and lat injuries. All could be related to how hard he throws. On top of the injury risk, you have the aforementioned trade risk. Like Suarez, Fairbanks pitches in a bullpen with other talented relievers. Edwin Uceta looked like a stud last season and Hunter Bigge has upside as a leverage arm. The Rays shopped Fairbanks at the Trade Deadline last year and appear to be doing so this offseason, too. If traded, there are no guarantees Fairbanks will remain a closer on his new team. Overall, there are too many risk factors for me to draft Fairbanks inside the Top-200 picks. His ADP isn't egregious but the floor is extremely low for Fairbanks in 2025.
