Sleepers are fun! They're an opportunity to identify undervalued players in Fantasy Baseball drafts, for various reasons. To be honest, I'm all over the place with the names I picked out below. Some are bounce-back candidates. Others are prospects with opportunity. I even have some deeper names who might not have a job! As always, everything comes down to the market. Based on NFBC ADP, I think all 12 of these players are, you guessed it, being slept on.
- Sleepers 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
Before I dive in, I do want to mention a few omissions that my colleagues already wrote about. One of the harder tasks in the offseason is selecting just 12 sleepers. I could have made this list 30 names deep! For the sake of your time and mine, I chose not to do that. Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera is somebody I'm very interested in drafting in two-catcher leagues. You can read Chris Towers' write-up on Herrera here. Also, I cannot understand Isaac Paredes' ADP. He was traded over to the Houston Astros, which is a match made in heaven! Scott White broke it all down here. Lastly, I agree with both on Michael Conforto. Draft that guy in five-outfielder leagues! Without further ado, here are the sleepers I'm targeting.
Josh Lowe, OF, Rays
Let's rewind to a year ago. Josh Lowe was coming off a breakout 2023 where he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 steals. He finished 44th overall in Roto and averaged 3.1 Fantasy points per game, tied for 15th among outfielders. As a result, Lowe was being drafted as a top-75 pick in early drafts. Then disaster struck as Lowe was diagnosed with a right oblique strain during spring training. He landed on the Injured List twice last season and was limited to just 106 games. Honestly, I don't think he was ever right. As we know, oblique injuries are extremely tricky for baseball players to overcome. Despite playing hurt, Lowe still managed 10 homers with 25 steals across 106 games, not completely useless.
I think Lowe bounces back this season, closer to the player he was in 2023. I'm not sure he has huge raw power but I think there are reasons for optimism. Even with the injuries last season, Lowe posted a career-high 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, which ranked in the 76th percentile. On top of that, the Rays are playing their home games in George M. Steinbrenner Field this upcoming season. GMS Field has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, including that short porch in right field. According to Statcast, Yankee Stadium is the third-best ballpark when it comes to left-handed power. Lowe looks like a strong bet to post a career-high in homers this season while providing 30-plus steals. Look for Lowe as your OF3 in Roto/category leagues but more of a bench piece in H2H points.
Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers
Parker Meadows is a name we've heard about for a while now. He was a second-round pick by the Tigers back in 2018 and the younger brother for former Major Leaguer, Austin Meadows. Parker got called up late in 2023, showed off a little power and speed, and earned some late-round buzz in drafts last offseason. It didn't exactly work out. Meadows got off to a bad start, hitting .096 with a .443 OPS and 38% strikeout rate in his first 32 games. No surprise but he was sent back to Triple-A, where he crushed. In 51 games with the Toledo Mud Hens, Meadows slashed .292/.388/.495 with eight homers and 19 steals. The Tigers recalled Meadows in July where he instantly hurt his hamstring.
Meadows returned in early August and played well. Over his final 47 games, he hit .296 with six homers, five steals, and an .840 OPS. He kept his strikeout rate to a very manageable 21% during this stretch. Meadows played so well, he was moved up to the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching. He kept that job throughout the Tigers' miraculous run in the playoffs. If everything clicks, Meadows should lead off again with plus speed and decent power. I actually think there's playing time upside, too. It's a small sample but Meadows has performed well against left-handed pitching in his career. In 91 plate appearances against lefties, he's hit .266 with a .737 OPS and 111 wRC+. My guess is Meadows will provide a lower batting average in the .240-.250 range but can pop 15-20 homers with 25-30 steals and a lot of runs scored leading off for the Tigers. Target him as your OF3/4 in Roto/category leagues and a bench piece in H2H points formats.
Tommy Edman, OF, Dodgers
I want to be very clear. I do not think Tommy Edman has massive upside. I do, however, think he'll get back to being the player he was on the Cardinals. If he does that, he's criminally undervalued in drafts. 2024 was a weird year for Edman. He had wrist surgery last offseason and suffered setback after setback. Edman actually didn't play a single game with the Cardinals. He was traded over to the Dodgers while rehabbing on the Injured List. Edman eventually made his Dodgers (and season) debut on August 19. He was fine to close out the season but reminded us of his talent during the playoffs. In 16 postseason games, Edman hit .328 with two homers, five steals, and an .862 OPS. He actually took home NLCS MVP!
That postseason performance earned Edman a five-year, $74 million extension from the Dodgers this offseason. They're betting on Edman, and so am I. If you look at his track record before the wrist surgery, Edman was consistently reliable in Fantasy. He finished as a top-70 player in both 2021 and 2022, then finished 132nd in just 137 games the following season. Edman has some positional upside, too. He's only outfield eligible for now but we know he's capable of playing both middle infield positions. There is a lineup iteration where Andy Pages plays center field with Edman at short and Mookie Betts at second. Perhaps the biggest downside for Edman is his spot in the lineup. My guess is he'll bat near the bottom, which will limit his plate appearances. But even then, he's batting in the bottom of the best lineup in baseball. I believe Edman will still be able to rack up counting stats. Expect a .260ish batting average with 12-15 homers and 25-30 steals, making him a strong OF3/4 option.
Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs
Updated 2/21: If you look at NFBC ADP for the entire offseason, Matt Shaw is at 326. In mid-December, the Cubs traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros in a deal for Kyle Tucker, creating a void at third base. Shaw's ADP has been on the rise ever since. Everything we've heard this offseason is that the Cubs' third base job is Shaw's to lose. If you read my Breakouts 1.0, you know I've lowered my expectations for rookies. The good news is I think most Fantasy players have, too. Despite having a clear opportunity, Shaw is still being drafted outside the top-200 picks in February. It's not the same helium we saw from Wyatt Langford a year ago.
What about Shaw, the player? He's 23 years old and was a first-round pick back in 2023. Shaw's flashed power and speed, improving as he's moved up the minor-league ladder. Last season he hit .284 with 21 homers, 31 steals, and an .867 OPS across 121 games. 35 of those games came at Triple-A, where Shaw posted a .929 OPS. On top of the power and speed, I like what we've seen with his plate discipline. Shaw struck out just 18% of the time last season and has never posted a strikeout rate above 19.7% at any level. That gives us confidence he'll eventually hit for a solid batting average in the Majors. Since writing this back in January, a few things happened that could affect Shaw's Fantasy value this season. First, he's been slowed by a left oblique injury early on in camp. He has been cleared to hit and throw, but the Cubs appear to be taking things slow, which makes sense. For what it's worth, he sounds optimistic. Second, the Cubs signed Justin Turner. At 40 years old, the plan is for Turner to serve as a short-side platoon at first base and insurance in case Shaw falls flat this spring. I still like targeting Shaw as a sleeper with upside after the Top-200 picks. He just has a little more pressure to perform with Turner in the building.
Bowden Francis, SP, Blue Jays
Bowden Francis reminds me of Cristopher Sanchez from last offseason. They're completely different pitchers but have been treated similarly by the Fantasy community. Despite performing well in a small sample with the Phillies in 2023, Sanchez was drafted outside of the top-200 picks last offseason. He went on to have a pretty successful 2024. With an ADP of 223.3, I'm hoping Francis can do something similar. Francis has mostly had an underwhelming professional career but something clicked in 2023. He performed well in both the minors and majors, albeit in a small sample size. Francis got the opportunity to start for the Blue Jays to open last season, where he struggled mightily. He was sent to the minors, returned, pitched out of the bullpen, and, eventually, got the chance to start again in August. Francis turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball over the final two months.
Over Francis' final nine starts, he posted a 1.53 ERA with a 0.53 WHIP. You read that right. Francis allowed just 24 hits and seven walks over 59 innings. He took a no-hitter into the ninth inning twice in a three-week span. Francis was flat-out untouchable. How did he do it? A fastball-splitter combo to go along with impeccable command. Francis only averages 92.9 MPH on his fastball but the underlying characteristics are impressive. According to pitcherlist.com, Francis' fastball ranked 82nd percentile in extension, 84th percentile in induced vertical break, and 71st percentile in spin rate. What does that all mean? His fastball is tough to hit. Francis pairs that with a splitter that doesn't get big whiffs but is incredible on balls in play. His splitter had an expected batting average of .190 and an expected slugging percentage of .259. Francis' curveball wasn't great but his slider showed potential in a small sample size. I understand being skeptical of a mid-career breakout but his current cost is very reasonable. I'm targeting Francis as a bench piece with upside, especially if last season was a turning point in his career.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, Phillies
Jesus Luzardo is the perfect pitcher to take in the later rounds. We know he has upside. He was a top-100 pick in ADP just last year. After a down season riddled with injury, his ADP has dropped outside the top 250 picks. Sign me up! Luzardo was traded from the Marlins to the Phillies in late December. While it is a ballpark downgrade, it's a huge team upgrade. The Phillies chose to buy low and so should you. Luzardo was bad last season. He posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 12 starts. He dealt with left elbow tightness and then a lumbar stress reaction in his back. His velocity was down quite a bit, too.
Maybe I'm oversimplifying Luzardo's career but it seems pretty simple. When he's healthy and averaging over 96 MPH on his fastball, he's dominant. Look at 2022 and 2023. He made 50 starts during that stretch and pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 10.6 K/9 and an elite 14% swinging strike rate. He averaged 96.3 MPH on his fastball in 2022 and 96.7 MPH in 2023. Last season Luzardo was down to 95.2 MPH on his fastball and that pitch got crushed. Perhaps it was related to the elbow injury, which originally landed Luzardo on the Injured List. For whatever it's worth, he said he feels 100 percent healthy this offseason. There's a wide range of outcomes here. If Luzardo is healthy and on his game, he could provide SP2 numbers. Like most pitchers, the floor is extremely low. Luzardo is an elevated injury risk so he could easily get hurt and provide nothing. I'd much rather take that risk on Luzardo and his ADP vs. other injury-prone pitchers going much earlier.
Reese Olson, SP, Tigers
I think Reese Olson is close to breaking through. He already made improvements from year one to year two. Olson lowered his ERA from 3.99 to 3.53, mostly thanks to improving his walk rate and inducing more ground balls. His ground ball rate jumped from 42.8% in 2023 to 50.6% last season. As a result, he did a much better job avoiding barrels and limiting home runs. On the surface, Olson's 21.7% strikeout rate is lackluster but I think more strikeouts could be on the way. He has two plus pitches — the slider and changeup — with whiff rates over 42%. Most pitchers are lucky if they have one! Olson's 12.7% swinging strike rate would've ranked 18th if he qualified at starting pitcher.
As I mentioned earlier, I think Olson is close. He needs to either improve his four-seam fastball or throw it less. His sinker is a much more viable option. Olson's four-seam had a .357 xwOBA last season while his sinker had a .294 mark. To put that in perspective, Bryce Harper had a .357 xwOBA. Harrison Bader was at .294. If you're Olson, would you rather opposing batters be Harper or Bader? I trust Olson and the Tigers will figure it out. Speaking of the Tigers, I like where they're at as an organization. They seem to be improving plus it's a great ballpark and division to pitch in. I'm not sure Olson will ever have SP1 upside but I can see him developing into a serviceable SP2 or SP3 in Fantasy. As of now, he's an afterthought based on early ADP. Draft Olson and profit.
Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox
Updated 2/21: No prospect improved their stock more than Kristian Campbell did last season. He broke out in a major way and was named 2024 Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America. Campbell hit .330 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a .997 OPS across three different levels. He started his season at High-A and climbed all the way up to Triple-A by season's end. Campbell did not look overmatched at any level, displaying a strong eye with solid contact skills. His 29.5% line drive rate was among the best in the minors and helps explain how Campbell maintained that .330 batting average.
It's safe to say Campbell has a lot more attention heading into 2025. He's one of Boston's "big three" prospects and is Scott White's #4 overall prospect! A lot has changed since writing this back in January. Most notably, the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman. As of now, it sounds like the plan is for Bregman to play second base with Rafael Devers remaining at third. I still think their best defensive alignment features Bregman at third, Campbell at second and Devers at either first base or designated hitter, but it doesn't seem like that's the plan as of now. This definitely complicates Campbell's chances of contributing early in the season. However, this might just make him a deeper sleeper. As you know, life, uh, finds a way. I think Campbell will be up at some point. He can play both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots. Whether it's due to injury or lack of production, Campbell will make an impact with the Red Sox at some point this season and is worth stashing as a result.
David Festa, SP, Twins
As the great Ron Shandler says, "Draft skills, not roles." I'm not sure David Festa will be in the Twins' Opening Day rotation, but he should be. On the surface, Festa was bad as a rookie. He posted a 4.90 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. Let's dig deeper. His first two starts were really bad. His final 11 starts were better. During that stretch, Festa posted a 3.81 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. Not amazing, but better. Let's dig a little deeper. While Festa posted a 4.90 ERA overall, his 3.76 FIP and 3.58 SIERA tell us he might've been unlucky. Despite the higher ratios, Festa did a great job racking up whiffs. He posted a 10.8 K/9, 19.5% K-BB rate, and a 12.8% swinging strike rate. For reference, those rates are similar to ones posted by Cole Ragans and Michael King. I'm not saying Festa is as good as those guys, but the swing-and-miss potential is there.
Let's dig even deeper. Festa offers a three-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. So far, the changeup is his money pitch. It posted a .239 batting average against with a 39% whiff rate. The slider was solid. It didn't get a ton of whiffs but had good results on balls in play. The fastball got crushed but I'm here to provide optimism! According to pitcherlist.com, Festa's fastball ranked 87th percentile in extension, 83rd% in induced vertical break, and 72nd percentile in spin rate. Despite getting clobbered, his fastball has good characteristics. It was also a highly-graded pitch by multiple prospect websites. There are questions here and a very low floor. I'm not sure Festa will be in the Twins' Opening Day rotation, but he should be on your radar regardless. I expect him to make an impact at some point in 2025.
Thairo Estrada, 2B, Rockies
Thairo Estrada signed a one-year deal with the Rockies to be their starting second baseman. Can I end my analysis there? Sure, the Rockies stink, but Coors Field is still a massive advantage for any hitter. Estrada had an injured-riddled 2024 where he went on the IL twice with left wrist injuries. He was limited to 96 games and was bad even when he played. Estrada was much better, however, the two years prior. He had nearly identical seasons in 2022 and 2023. Estrada hit between .260 and .271 with 14 home runs in each season, 21-23 steals, and a .722-.731 OPS. He finished 94th overall in 2022 and 121st overall in 2023. And Estrada did all of that while playing in San Francisco!
Now he has the opportunity to get his career back on track in Colorado. In 24 career games in Coors Field, Estrada has a .348 batting average with four homers, six doubles, three steals, 18 RBI, and a .971 OPS. The biggest question for Estrada is his health. He's dealt with lingering problems to that left wrist each of the past two seasons. It's something to pay attention to during spring training. If it looks like he's healthy, though, I think there's some upside here. Estrada will be just 29 years old on Opening Day and should be an everyday player from the jump. If he bounces back to the player he was in 2022 and 2023, Estrada could provide a similar skillset to Bryson Stott or Andres Gimenez. The best part is that Estrada is going 180 picks later than both of those guys! Target Estrada as a late-round middle infielder who could provide good speed with modest power and batting average.
Grant Holmes, SP/RP, Braves
Updated 2/21: When I wrote this back in January, there wasn't much clarity on the Braves' rotation. Since then, we learned Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson are likely to start in the rotation while Spencer Strider is on the mend. Once Strider is back, one of Holmes or Anderson will likely head to the bullpen. I have no problem betting on Holmes' talent in that situation. Holmes is a tremendous story. He was a first-round pick by the Dodgers way back in 2014. He spent time in the Dodgers and Athletics organizations before eventually making his way to the Braves. Holmes made his Major League debut last season after spending a decade in the minors. That rarely happens. On top of everything, he was really good! In 26 games (seven starts) with the Braves, Holmes posted a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an elite 16.4% swinging strike rate. Among 270 pitchers with at least 60 innings, Holmes' swinging strike rate ranked ninth.
How did Holmes get his career back on track? The Braves gave him a slider. It's as simple as that. Holmes has three main pitches: a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a curveball. All three look like they're really good. The slider and curveball both have whiff rates over 40%, a truly elite mark. As mentioned earlier, Holmes should be in the rotation to start the season. If he's anywhere close to as effective as last year, I have no doubt he will stick in the rotation. Unfortunately, Holmes' ADP is on the rise. Even so, he's somebody you can still draft outside the Top-300 picks. Additionally, he's a SPARP in CBS H2H points leagues. Regardless of format, Holmes is somebody you should target with a late-round pick.
Ryan Weathers, SP, Marlins
Once upon a time, Ryan Weathers was a top prospect in the Padres organization. Things didn't exactly work out in San Diego, and Weathers was traded over to the Marlins in August of 2023. He showed up last spring with increased velocity, dominated, and earned a spot in the Marlins' rotation. Weathers impressed in 16 starts with the Marlins. He posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while getting ground balls and a decent amount of strikeouts. Walks were a problem early on but then improved dramatically. Over his final 10 starts, Weathers walked just nine batters, a 3.9% walk rate.
While his velocity has improved over the years, it's really his secondary pitches that took off. Weathers' changeup had a .193 batting average against with a 38% whiff rate last season. His sweeper was even better! That pitch had just a .118 batting average against with a 51% whiff rate! If he can replicate that again, we're talking about one of the best pitches in baseball. Weathers is a post-hype sleeper but still just 25 years old. The Marlins are relying on him, too. They traded away Jesus Luzardo and don't have many proven arms in their rotation. Wins will be hard to come by in Miami but loanDepot park is still a great ballpark to pitch in. Lastly, Weathers lost 20 pounds this offseason after changing his diet. If you believe in "Best Shape of His Life SZN," there's an extra motive to draft Weathers as a sleeper. It seems as though people really just forgot about him this offseason after a solid showing in 2024.
