If you want to win your league, you're going to have draft well in the later rounds. It's far more important than being right early (studs) or lucky in the middle (breakouts).
Anyone can pick good players in the early and middle rounds. There's a reason those players are atop all the cheat sheets, Draft Averages or whatever sneaky trick you have up your sleeve on Draft Day.
It's the latter rounds where ambiguity comes into play and where sleepers crawl out of the woodwork and far outproduce their draft position.
You have to find inefficiency in the marketplace. We suggest you do it in a variety of ways, including: 27-year-olds, starting pitchers in their third year, rookies/prospects and injury risks. We have already devoted time to those prime sources in our other Draft Previews, but in this space we rate the sleeper targets among the first-time starters and overlooked sophomores.
First-time starters
A first-time starter is a like a box of chocolates. You never know ...
But, if you back his new found opportunity with an understanding of his potential, you now have something your average Fantasy Baseball opponent doesn't: A vision of a diamond in the rough. The layman doesn't know what he hasn't seen, or heard, so here's our top 10 guys you can take a flier on in Fantasy leagues for potentially surprising rewards. (By the way, Chase Utley topped this list last year before his rise to Fantasy studdom.)
1. 1B Casey Kotchman, L.A. Angels of Anaheim
Young first basemen without big power numbers are pretty low on most mixed-league radars, but Kotchman isn't exactly the player you see on the stat sheet. He has some serious unrealized potential, which is why the Angels have cleared the everyday first base job for him this spring by moving disappointing veteran Darin Erstad back to center field. Kotchman has long been considered a top prospect despite having just 24 career minor-league homers and grades very highly in the all-important category of strikeout-to-walk ratio. The power will come and it began to show in his 126 at-bats last year. He's a late-round mixed-league pick who can go .300-20-80 in his first full season as an everyday player. By the way, Kotchman is a first-time starter who also happens to be an overlooked sophomore. A double-dipper.
2. RH SP Aaron Heilman, New York Mets
| New Starters | ||
| Rk | Player | POS |
| 1 | Casey Kotchman | 1B |
| 2 | Aaron Heilman | SP |
| 3 | Kevin Youkilis | 1B |
| 4 | Ryan Madson | SP |
| 5 | Aaron Hill | 2B |
| 6 | Jason Michaels | OF |
| 7 | Tom Gordon | CL |
| 8 | Jose Valverde | CL |
| 9 | Mike Gonzalez | CL |
| 10 | Luis A. Gonzalez | 2B |
Rookie starters have historically been risky Fantasy picks because the hype exceeds their first-year potential. The saying goes: "Rookie pitchers are great picks ... three years from now." This is Heilman, a former No. 1 pick who finally gets his full-time starting job in his third major-league season. Unlike a third-year starting pitcher, Heilman moves from middle relief after the Mets cleared the rotation spot occupied by Kris Benson. No Mets pitcher has ever thrown a no-hitter, but Heilman came as close as any pitcher to date, one-hitting the contending Marlins in a spot start early last year. You can't expect that kind of dominance regularly, but it does give you a glimpse of his potential. He's an outstanding late-rounder in mixed leagues.
3. 2B Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
A streaky hitter in his rookie season a year ago, Hill assumes the everyday second base job this spring after the trade of Orlando Hudson. It's this writer's belief that a streaky young hitter becomes a productive veteran stud with experience. The cold streaks get shorter and the hot streaks last longer. Also, doubles become homers once the game slows down and that inside pitch winds up in the cheap seats as they learn to turn on mistakes. Jeff Kent and Utley are past examples of this among run producing second basemen. If you're big on top prospects who are both a new starter and an overlooked sophomore, Hill's your man. It's uncertain how quickly his power develops at this point -- his big breakthrough might not come until next year, or thereafter -- but he is a solid late-rounder in mixed leagues.
4. OF Jason Michaels, Cleveland Indians
Michaels has never been given a full-time opportunity -- mostly because of the hurtin' he puts on left-handed pitching has kept him a a platoon option in Philly (.323 average, .423 on-base percentage in '05 ... .286-.371 in '04 ... .383-.487 in '03). Dealt to the Coco Crisp -less Indians, Michaels will get his chance to play left field full time. His ability to get on base slots him at the No. 2 spot in one of the best young lineups in the game. Hitting between the emerging Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta is one of the coziest spots in baseball. And that's without mentioning that studs Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are behind him. Michaels is now late-round viable in mixed leagues with his promise of regular duty.
5. RH SP Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Madson is Heilman lite. He might even prove to be better, but his ballpark is far less of a pitcher's venue and his past prospect star wasn't as bright. With the Phillies' promising offense, Madson should be plenty good, though, in his own move to the starting rotation -- made possible by the Phillies' trade for setup man Arthur Rhodes. Unlike Heilman, who stretched his arm out as a starter in winter ball, Madson will have to make the transition in spring training. If it fails, or another viable rotation option emerges, he could be sent back to the setup role in which he starred in last season. There are certainly worse fliers to take in mixed leagues.
The best of the rest:
6. 3B/1B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
The "Greek God of Walks" allusions are getting old, but Youkilis potentially gives the Red Sox a fresh face in their lineup. He will have to beat out veteran defensive whiz J.T. Snow for regular duty -- and to avoid a lefty-righty platoon -- but Youkilis is a right-handed bat in a great lineup and a ballpark that is friendly to them. Topping off his possible new-starter status is the fact he will be the ripe age of 27. And if you're a regular reader of this writer, you know that's a good age to be buying into a player.
7. RH CL Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies
Gordon isn't a true first-time starter; he's old and has been a closer before. He returns to a last-inning role, though, after signing a free-agent deal to replace Billy Wagner. The Phillies aren't necessarily a top contender because of their relatively weak rotation, but their offense is top notch and they will rely heavily on their bullpen to close out high-scoring games in their bandbox ballpark. Gordon should find himself on the right end of three-run games, which are chip shot saves that look really good on the Fantasy stat sheet.
8. RH CL Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks
Valverde is in the same boat as Gordon, having been a closer before. But this is the first time he will be an unquestioned one going into spring. Valverde regained command once healthy last season, so his nasty knockout stuff led to more strikeouts and less walks. As a closer for a middlin' team, his mixed-league value is relatively less than that of other closers, but Valverde is a top talent who should only get better.
9. CL Mike Gonzalez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Gonzalez still has to beat out Salomon Torres and perhaps Damaso Marte, but the lefty has long been considered the closer heir-apparent in Pittsburgh. We say he runs away with the job this spring, giving him great sleeper value in mixed leagues that favor the save stat heavily. A has-been Jose Mesa saved 43 games in '04 and 27 in '05 before losing his job. Even if wins are tough to come by with the young Pirates, saves shouldn't be. We see there being plenty of close games to slam the door on.
10. 2B Luis A. Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
This former Rule 5 pick is a model of the debate of the winter-meeting draft where big-league teams can pluck unprotected minor-leaguers from the lower levels of other teams systems. Although not as high profile as fellow Rule 5 refugee Johan Santana, Gonzalez still gets labeled more as a player unwanted by his original team. He's proven to provide versatility and middle-infield pop for Fantasy teams and the Rockies didn't think twice about dealing Aaron Miles to the Cardinals this winter to make room for him. Gonzalez will now be the everyday second baseman for a team that plays half its games in Coors Field. Toss us on this bandwagon in the latter rounds of larger mixed leagues.
Honorable mention:
- The Mariners' Jose Lopez reminds us a lot of Felipe Lopez. The similarities extend beyond the name and the position(s). Jose is expected to be the Mariners everyday second baseman, so he will have a chance to find himself like Felipe finally did last season. It took Felipe years, so Jose might not be ready for such a breakthrough, but it's certainly a flier to take in AL-only leagues.
- The Mets' right-field job is a battle between Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz, but if one of those developing prospects establishes himself full time, a .280-25-100 season could be in store. A Catch-22: The fact that either one of these players is capable of that makes it unlikely either one of them runs away with the job. We see them splitting time and dragging each of their values down to NL-only leagues. You'd have to like a capable hitter who has Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Cliff Floyd hitting in front of them.
Overlooked sophomores
The hype of the top freshmen Delmon Young, Jeremy Hermida and Prince Fielder will make them nearly impossible to get late in drafts, but rookies generally represent the unknown.
But an overlooked sophomore is a player you remember ... remember how much he didn't amount to much in your Fantasy league.
They shouldn't be given up on, even if they're not the first player that comes to mind for owners in your league. Other than the first-time starters Kotchman and Hill above, here are our top picks for second-year men that will be overlooked on Draft Day. They can provide huge rewards if you find them on the board in the latter rounds.
1. LF Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs
| Overlooked Sophs | ||
| Rk | Player | POS |
| 1 | Matt Murton | OF |
| 2 | Scott Kazmir | SP |
| 3 | Jonny Gomes | OF |
| 4 | Garrett Atkins | 3B |
| 5 | Nick Swisher | OF |
| 6 | Dallas McPherson | 3B |
| 7 | Brian McCann | C |
| 8 | Curtis Granderson | OF |
| 9 | Ryan Doumit | C |
| 10 | Edwin Encarnacion | 3B |
Murton just missed remaining eligible for Rookie of the Year honors; yet, he didn't play enough last year to be a top candidate in the vote. It makes him a little easier to overlook, but you can't deny the .321 average, seven homers, .521 slugging percentage and .386 on-base percentage he posted in his 140 at-bats as a rookie. Those numbers are arguably more intriguing than that of Jeff Francoeur, who most certainly won't fall through the cracks on Draft Day. Murton enters spring as the everyday left fielder in a solid lineup in a hitter's park. Sprinkle in his ability and you have a solid late-round mixed-league flier.
2. LH SP Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Kazmir isn't a hyped rookie any more, nor is he a third-year starting pitcher. He is the ace of the Devil Rays, which in itself could be a drag on his hype. Make no mistake: Kazmir is a high-quality young arm with big-time potential. If he slips past the middle rounds on Draft Day, you will find yourself a potential 15-game winner who will can strikeout well over 200 batters.
3. OF/DH Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Young and Carl Crawford are the marquee names in the Devil Rays outfield, so your average Fantasy owner dismisses Gomes as much of anything because they ask themselves, "how many studs can a last-place team have?" Well, don't overlook this young slugger in the middle to late rounds. He's capable of 30 homers and 100 RBI in one of the most underrated offenses in baseball.
4. 3B Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins isn't even the best third-base prospect in his own organization, having to look over his shoulder at surging lower-level prospect Ian Stewart. But it was Atkins who had the third most RBI for a rookie over the past six seasons, trailing only Albert Pujols (130) in 2001 and Hideki Matsui (106) in 2003. That's some elite company. Fantasy-leaguers are starting to understand Atkins' run-production potential behind Todd Helton and Matt Holliday in a Coors Field lineup, but if he falls past the middle rounds, grab him.
5. OF Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics
Swisher might even be getting overlooked by his own organization. First baseman Dan Johnson lapped him after his rookie call-up, while the A's added Milton Bradley to play right field and Frank Thomas to provide OPS at DH this winter. Those are the positions where Swisher's at-bats came from last year. He moves over to left field and will have to fend off veteran Jay Payton and perhaps Bobby Kielty for playing time. Swisher is talented enough to play every day, improve on his "disappointing" 21 homers, 74 RBI as a rookie and get stolen in the late rounds of a mixed-league draft.
6. 3B Dallas McPherson, L.A. Angels of Anaheim
McPherson was the top rookie going into last season, but back and hip problems got him off to a late and slow start in spring training. It required surgery and ruined his rookie campaign, but there were very good reasons why he was so highly regarded. It's the high-end power potential on the level of the man he was supposed to replace -- Troy Glaus. McPherson would be a more highly-rated sleeper if not for the troublesome hip that has yet to allow him to be 100 percent for spring. McPherson will now have to prove his health and productivity in an effort to earn DH at-bats. Emerging sparkplug Chone Figgins will likely open the season as the starting third baseman, but a healthy McPherson will force Figgins back to center field or a utility role. Track McPherson in spring, because if he gets at-bats, he can make good on the promise for 30 homers and 100 RBI.
7. C Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
Rookie catchers on a contender are very, very rare -- especially 21-year-old ones. McCann is a quick-rising catching prospect who showed enough to allow the Braves to trade Johnny Estrada and slot him as their everyday catcher. He will eventually become one of the best offensive backstops in NL-only leagues. He won't peak in 2006, but something short of .280-15-70 is certainly within reach as a late-round mixed-league catcher.
8. OF Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
Granderson's situation compares to that of Murton's -- and Granderson has been considered the better prospect. Granderson might not even get drafted in smaller mixed leagues, but his speed and power combination is extremely intriguing. Assuming he starts in center field over Nook Logan, Granderson will be grand larceny in the late rounds. He was Mr. Irrelevant in our December magazine experts league draft, but he's going to be very, very relevant in the Rotisserie format.
9. C Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates
Doumit (DOW-mitt) launched his hype machine on Triple-A opening day last year, popping a homer off of rehabbing World Series hero Curt Schilling. It was a warning shot for NL-only and keeper-league owners last year who benefited with some solid catching production down the stretch. Doumit is a catcher who can hit, so he certainly warrants a look in the late rounds of mixed leagues. He went three picks ahead of Granderson in the aforementioned December draft.
10. 3B Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
Yet another in the Murton-Granderson mold. Encarnacion has more raw power than either of those two, hits in an even better ballpark and lineup and has less competition for playing time. His downside is he's more raw of a prospect, making less consistent contact and striking out more frequently than you would like as a starting mixed-league corner infielder. Encarnacion certainly has the potential to surprise us with a 20-plus homer campaign in his first full season.
Honorable mention: There are many more sophomores you can expect good things out of this season as late-round mixed-league options. The following players have varying degrees of value and potential for playing time, but they should be watched this spring and during your draft: RH SP Joe Blanton, OAK; RH SP Chris Young, SD; RH SP Ervin Santana, LAA; RH SP Gustavo Chacin, TOR; OF Ryan Church, WAS; OF Jeremy Reed, SEA; OF Ryan Langerhans and Kelly Johnson, ATL; OF Brad Hawpe, COL; SS J.J. Hardy, MIL; RH SP Jason Vargas, FLA; 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD; OF/2B Chris Burke, HOU.
