Movin' on Up: Bossman Junior
B.J. Upton is widely considered the best shortstop prospect in minor-league baseball, drawing many comparisons to Derek Jeter. However, Movin' on Up notes that Upton's upside has diverted from the Jeter path.
Movin' on Up focuses on rookies, recent call-ups and top prospects. Every Tuesday, we provide you with the latest advice and info to help you unearth first-year gems or "keeper" players.
Ladies and gentlemen, the countdown to B.J. Upton's major-league promotion has begun. The 2002 No. 2 overall pick was minutes away from boarding a plane to join the big club in Tampa on May 12, but a last-second call from Devil Rays GM Chuck LaMar rerouted him to Triple-A Durham for the finishing touches on his minor-league seasoning.
According to the Raleigh News & Observer, Upton, 19, received the disappointing call while waiting in the Atlanta airport, as the Rays instead opted to promote Damian Rolls and send Melvin Upton, nicknamed "Bossman Junior" or B.J. for short, to Pennsylvania to join the Durham Bulls.
Is it any surprise LaMar is the subject of constant criticism from Rays fans? Tampa Bay, a team in rebuilding mode, hardly can count on a player like Rolls long-term, and giving a premier prospect like Upton such mixed messages isn't exactly a wise move.
Fortunately, Upton seems unfazed by the change of plans, tearing up the International League in a dozen games. He's batting .375 with five home runs, 11 RBI and three stolen bases, and has logged six multi-hit games in that span. That followed Upton's blazing hot start at Double-A Montgomery -- for the strangely nicknamed Biscuits -- where he batted .327 with two homers, 15 RBI and three steals in 29 games.
Upton's performance should sway LaMar's opinion in the near future, and the smart money has the kid starting at shortstop in Tampa Bay by the All-Star break at the latest. In fact, Upton might already be a major leaguer if it weren't clear he still needs plenty of defensive polish.
Upton committed a minor-league high 56 errors in 2003, coincidentally the same number Derek Jeter, the man to whom he is most compared, had while with Class A Greensboro in 1993. What's also interesting about that is both Jeter and Upton racked up that high error total while playing the vast majority of their games in the South Atlantic League as 18-year-olds. Jeter did cut that total by more than half the following season, but Upton continues to struggle with the glove, with four errors in 12 games at Durham and 14 in 41 games combined this season.
That's the bad news; the good news is that where Upton's path has gone astray negatively from Jeter's, it has strayed on a positive note from an offensive perspective. Upton seems to be developing more power at a younger age than the Yankee captain, perhaps a result of fierce determination to prove he should have been kept on that flight to Tampa.
At 18 years old -- calculating that number as of opening day in a given season -- Upton and Jeter posted nearly identical minor-league stats, justifying that frequent comparison. At age 19, however, their paths seem more divergent:
| B.J. UPTON vs. DEREK JETER | ||||||||||||||
| Age | Level(s) | G | AVG | OPS | SB | E | Level(s) | G | AVG | OPS | SB | E | ||
| 18 | A+/AA | 130 | .297 | .821 | 40 | 56 | A | 128 | .295 | .768 | 18 | 56 | ||
| 19 | AA/AAA | 41 | .342 | .978 | 6 | 14 | A+/AA/AAA | 138 | .344 | .873 | 50 | 25 | ||
Upton will clearly have to improve his defensive skills with on-the-job training in the majors, which could be a concern based on manager Lou Piniella's desire for solid middle-infield defense. But his increased power numbers suggest he might hit for a slightly lower average than Jeter (traditionally speaking, not his current .190 mark) with 30-homer, 100-RBI potential in his prime. He probably won't adapt to the big leagues as quickly as Jeter, the 1996 AL rookie of the year, but there's upside here in the homer and RBI departments that was never really evident in Jeter's first season.
If Upton is available in your league and you can afford the luxury of stashing him away on reserve for a few more weeks, make the move before it's too late. He's looking far better with the bat than last year's top middle infield prospect, Jose Reyes, did in the minor leagues to begin the season, and Reyes nonetheless got the call last June 10. Reyes went on to hit .307 with five homers, 32 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 69 games, and Upton has the skills to match that with bigger numbers in the power department in the best-case scenario. ...
THE "OREL HERSHISER" OF THE MINOR LEAGUES: Cardinals pitching prospect Bradley Thomson, currently honing his skills at Double-A Tennessee, is coming off a record-setting, yet somewhat controversial, start to his season when he posted a stunning 57 2/3-inning scoreless streak. He racked up 49 straight innings without allowing a run this season, which when combined with his 8 2/3 innings to end last season, reportedly broke Irving Wilhelm's 97-year-old minor-league record and came within one out of tying Hershiser's major-league record set back in 1988.
However, numerous reports, most especially in Baseball America, report that Wilhelm's streak was longer, perhaps as much as 59, 69 or 72 innings, based on old newspaper accounts. Regardless of the findings, Thompson's streak still drew much attention and has put him on the Fantasy map. After his first loss of the season on Tuesday, he's still 7-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in nine games (eight starts) for the Smokies.
Thompson has long been projected a potential spot starter or long reliever in the majors, but his stock continues to rise as he maintains his place as one of the organization's top overachievers. He has a low-90s fastball with sinking movement, a slider rated as perhaps the organization's best and a changeup he has been working on for the past year. Thompson now carries a 2.08 ERA in 125 1/3 innings as a professional, and it's possible he'll now turn into a decent middle-of-the-rotation type in his prime if he can sustain his current momentum.
Thompson's scoreless streak isn't enough to make him an immediate Fantasy pickup, but he's someone to track the rest of this year and next. He might be in line for a promotion to Triple-A Memphis in the near future with his big-league debut coming sometime in 2005. In larger NL-only keeper formats, Thompson isn't a bad pitcher to stash away for the future.
METS ON THE WRIGHT TRACK: New York Mets prospect David Wright is a Fantasy keeper owner's dream, boasting the rare combination of power and speed at third base. Such a dual threat is immensely scarce: Only two third basemen in major-league history have ever recorded a 30/30 season, and the feat has not been done since another Met, Howard Johnson, had 38 homers and 30 steals in 1991.
Wright has been tearing up the Double-A Eastern League, ranking third with a .348 batting average, first with a .462 on-base percentage and second with a .615 slugging percentage. He also has eight homers and 14 steals, putting him well within reach of a 30/40 season. Even if he doesn't run nearly as much once he reaches the majors, he has the potential to hit anywhere from 30-40 homers a season and still steal 20 bases.
Fantasy Fungo
Jason Alves, Somerville: What's the word on Edwin Jackson? Is he still worth holding on to, or is he still getting knocked around in the minors?
T.C.: Jackson is 4-2 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.543 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings over nine starts for Triple-A Las Vegas, so it would seem that he does need a little more seasoning before being ready for full-time duty in the Dodgers rotation. He'll probably get another chance by season's end, but it's looking pretty unlikely he's going to make much of a Fantasy impact at the major-league level in 2004. Unless you're in a keeper league or have the luxury of a deep reserve list, Jackson probably isn't worth retaining at this point.
If you have questions about rookies or minor-league prospects, e-mail us at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Movin' on Up in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee answers to all questions.











