Sultan of Stat examines statistical trends that give you a decisive edge on the competition. Check for new columns every Thursday.
Tommy John never won a Cy Young Award, but he'll always have a place in history as one of baseball's most notable pitchers.
Unfortunately, his fame is due for something that didn't even take place on a baseball diamond. Surgery, which now bears Tommy John's name, replaced a torn medial collateral ligament in the left-hander's pitching elbow in 1974, allowing him to further his career. He would go on to record 170 of 288 career victories after the operation.
These days, Tommy John surgery has made significant advances, prolonging pitching careers more than ever. Among today's top pitchers who have had the procedure: Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, Billy Koch, Matt Morris, Odalis Perez, John Smoltz and Kerry Wood.
That should help soften the blow for A.J. Burnett (even if it won't for his Fantasy owners). The right-hander became the latest patient on Dr. James Andrews' operating table Tuesday. Burnett is lost to his Fantasy owners for this year and perhaps most of next season, but his situation serves as a reminder how important it is to be familiar with Tommy John surgery.
The surgery itself requires removal of the torn ligament, with a tendon removed from either the pitcher's opposite hand, wrist or forearm replacing it by means of holes drilled into the bone above and below the elbow. Transplanted tendons are generally stronger and more durable, and in many cases, actually help pitchers throw harder than before the surgery.
But it's the statistical ramifications of the recovery process that merit the most attention. Actual rehabilitation time takes anywhere from 12-18 months, but a closer look at the numbers can tell Fantasy owners exactly when to expect a recovering pitcher to return to his old dominant ways. Had you known in advance when Morris or Wood was ready to fully rebound, you could've acquired them cheaply and ridden them to a league championship, or several in a keeper league.
Five pitchers stand out as prime examples of Tommy John surgery recovery candidates. Each had the operation since the start of the 2001 season.
Kris Benson, Pittsburgh: The first overall pick in the 1996 amateur draft, Benson had the surgery on May 23, 2001. By the following spring, not 10 months later, he was pitching in minor-league games. Benson opened 2002 on a minor-league rehab assignment, going 1-2 with a 1.46 ERA in five starts before being activated on May 13. But he didn't look anywhere near his old self, posting a 4-6 record, 5.78 ERA, 1.738 WHIP and just 54 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings in his first 18 starts back. But starting with a seven-shutout-inning, one-hit performance in St. Louis on Aug. 20, 2002, Benson went on a tear, posting a 7-3 record, 2.30 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 12 regular-season starts since. Ultimately, it took him 15 months to hit his peak form.
Darren Dreifort, Los Angeles: He had his second career Tommy John surgery July 9, 2001. Ten months later, Dreifort resumed throwing. But this right-hander wouldn't enjoy a smooth recovery, succumbing to knee surgery in July 2002 and missing the rest of the year. Dreifort continued his throwing program and was fully ready for spring training, where he dominated opposing hitters to the tune of a 1.96 ERA, .211 opponents' batting average and 19 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. He's already off to a strong start to 2003, posting a 3.77 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 31 innings despite a subpar 1-3 record. Dreifort's return to top form took 20 months, although it can be argued he might have been ready sooner if major-league baseball was a year-round sport.
Adam Eaton, San Diego: He went under the knife on Aug. 21, 2001, and returned to the major leagues in just over one year (Sept. 1, 2002). Eaton was already throwing by June, just 10 months after surgery, and made five minor-league rehab starts in August, compiling a 1-1 record and 2.81 ERA. But Eaton got off to a slow start once activated, allowing 16 runs on 17 hits and 13 walks in 12 1/3 innings (11.68 ERA) in his first three starts. Since then, he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP and has allowed just 41 hits and 16 walks while striking out 53 in 57 innings in his past nine regular-season starts. Altogether, it took Eaton 13 months to hit his Fantasy peak.
Matt Mantei, Arizona: The Diamondbacks' closer endured the operation on June 19, 2001, and almost incredibly was playing catch by season's end. On May 1, 2002, he began a minor-league rehabilitation assignment, posting an 0.64 ERA in 14 innings before being activated on June 26. Mantei struggled initially, allowing a 5.65 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings in 19 appearances through Aug. 21. Since then, he has posted a 3-0 record, four saves, 3.28 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in 24 regular-season appearances. After 14 months, Mantei was back to his old self.
Scott Williamson, Cincinnati: He had to Tommy John surgery on April 12, 2001, and returned to game action the following spring. Williamson made the opening day roster, but the Reds played it safe with the right-hander, who recorded a 4.18 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in his first 41 appearances. By mid-August, he was ready to turn the corner. Williamson, now the Reds' closer, has racked up 14 saves while posting a 1.16 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in his last 34 regular-season appearances. It took him 16 months to really hit his stride.
Judging by this quintet, it appears that most pitchers take about 15 months following Tommy John surgery to become useful Fantasy options again. That's good news for Burnett, who might return to form by July 2004. In addition, Andrews used an ankle tendon in Burnett's surgery, so speculation is that the right-hander's lanky build means his new ligament might be stronger than the average pitcher. But that still doesn't change the fact that Burnett isn't a great keeper, unless you can get him at a dirt-cheap price.
While Burnett is as far removed from active status as any Tommy John surgery patient, three other notable Fantasy names bear watching: the Yankees' Jon Lieber (Aug. 8, 2002), on target to be back to full form next spring; Cleveland's Bob Wickman (Dec. 6, 2002), on target to be 100 percent by opening day 2004; and Texas' Jeff Zimmerman (July 30, 2002), on target for full health at season's end. Lieber in particular is a prime sleeper candidate in keeper leagues.
If medical science continues to advance this rapidly, perhaps one of these pitchers will land himself a coveted Cy Young Award, finally linking Tommy John with the on-field fame he deserves.
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com . Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee answers to all questions.
