Where is Troy Tulowitzki's power?
The Rockies shortstop has hit just two home runs so far this season. If he hits the trade market, is it buyer beware?
Historically, shortstop has always been a tough place to find offensive production. Because of the demands the position places defensively, the bar of offensive competence is significantly lowered; the average major-league shortstop posted a .678 OPS last season, the lowest of any spot around the diamond.
Only four shortstops around the league have managed an OPS over .800 so far this season, and one of the biggest surprises is the absence of Troy Tulowitzki from that list. The Rockies' franchise player is in the midst of a comeback campaign from a myriad of injuries, but he hasn't come close to his previously established levels of production so far.
Tulowitzki, who is reportedly considering requesting a trade out of Colorado, is hitting .298, but isn't doing much else to boost his value. Tulowitzki has managed just two home runs and 11 RBI, while walking just twice in 108 trips to the plate.
With Tulowitzki's production down and a potential move away from the generous dimensions and thin air of Coors Field looming, should Fantasy owners be worried about the game's top shortstop?
Let's start with the bad news first. Tulowitzki has never been a huge walk guy, but he was right around 10 percent for most of his career, a solid mark for a player who also consistently hit for high averages. So far this season, however, his plate discipline has completely collapse, as he has posted career-worst marks in both walk rate (1.9 percent) and strikeout rate (22.2 percent.
When you look at his plate discipline numbers from FanGraphs.com, it's clear where Tulowitzki has gone wrong. He has become a more aggressive hitter, and that hasn't translated into success. Tulowitzki is swinging at 48.6 percent of all pitches he has faced, by far the highest mark of his career; he hadn't been above 42.3 percent since 2008.
Tulowitzki is swinging more often at pitches in the zone, which isn't a bad thing, except that he is making contact on a career-low 85.5 percent. Couple that with the uptick in swings on pitches outside of the zone, and it's not hard to see why Tulowitzki is swinging and missing at a career-high 10.8 percent of the pitches he has faced.
Focusing less on contact isn't a bad thing, per se, though only two walks on May 13 is more than a little concerning. However, you usually want to see a player adding power to his game to go along with a lower contact rate. That's the kind of trade off you can live with.
This is where the news is a bit better, though still a bit mixed. Tulowitzki is, by our best available methods to track such things, absolutely stinging the ball. His .363 BABIP might look a bit high on the surface, until you realize he is fourth in the majors in hard-hit ball average. His contact rate is down, but his attempts to sell out for power (conscious or not) are paying dividend.
… Except he has just two home runs and his lowest ISO since 2008. Tulowitzki is still racking up doubles, but is it possible that the 30-year-old's power has waned to the point where he isn't quite the over-the-seat threat he once was? I wouldn't be too concerned about that.
Generally speaking, power declines come from a shift to more ground ball tendencies or from a lack of raw power. Tulowitzki is still hitting 39.0 percent of his balls in play into the air, and he is still in the 81st percentile in average batted ball velocity (per BaseballSavant.com), so that doesn't seem to be the case for Tulowitzki. He's still hitting it hard, and he's still hitting it in the air, so the power will probably come.
There are certainly reasons to be concerned about Tulowitzki's start. He doesn't seem to recognizing pitches all that well, and the fact that his pull rate is up to 53.7 percent -- yet another career high -- might be another indication that he is reacting rather than reading.
However, his swing seems as healthy as ever, and some of those doubles probably should start going over the fence before long. He's hitting too many fly balls, and hitting them too hard to keep hitting just one home run ever 54 trips to the plate.
Whether those balls are going over the fence in Coors Field or somewhere else is an entirely different story.
