The Phillies are coming off their first last-place finish since the 2000 season, but phrasing it like that would be to undersell where they are as a franchise. After winning the NL East five straight seasons -- a stretch that included two pennants and one World Championship -- they went 81-81 and then posted two straight 73-win seasons. They've seemed worse than that, right? Well, it will likely get worse because the Phillies are rebuilding now. Onward to see where they stand right now.

More: Likes, dislikes | Over/unders | All Team Previews | Spring Training

Probable lineup

1. Ben Revere, CF
2. Carlos Ruiz, C
3. Chase Utley, 2B
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Domonic Brown, RF
6. Darin Ruf, LF
7. Cody Asche, 3B
8. Freddy Galvis, SS

Bench - C Cameron Rupp, IF Cesar Hernandez, IF/OF Odubel Herrera, OF Grady Sizemore ... and a big mix of players.

There are Jeff Franceour, Russ Canzler, Chris McGuiness, Cord Phelps, Jordan Danks and Brian Bogusevic among the replacement-level crowd. There are also prospects like third baseman Maikel Franco and Kelly Dugan who could (should) figure prominently down the road. 

Among starters, things will obviously be fluid. Sizemore and Ruf could platoon. Ruf could play some first for Howard and Rule 5 pick Herrera is having a good enough spring to justify a look at some starts. Trades, of course, will factor as well as the season moves.

Probable rotation

1. LHP Cole Hamels
2. RHP Aaron Harang
3. RHP David Buchanan
4. RHP Jerome Williams
5. RHP Kevin Slowey

Lots to sort out here, too. We all know Cliff Lee is rehabbing and trying to get back, but that seems unlikely at this juncture. Chad Billingsley is coming off surgery and all indications are that he'll be ready sometime in April, so he'd take Slowey's spot, probably. There's also Cuban import Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and newly-acquired Joely Rodriguez, who is looking good in the spring.

There are some promising prospects (Aaron Nola, Zach Elfin and others), but they aren't ready yet. Maybe later in the year after the Phillies fall out of the race and Hamels is traded?

Probable bullpen

Closer - RHP Jonathan Papelbon
Setup men - RHP Ken Giles, LHP Jake Diekman
Middle men - LHP Mario Hollands, RHP Justin De Fratus, RHP Phillippe Aumont
Long man - LHP Andy Oliver

Again, this is a team in the midst of a rebuild, so obviously the bullpen -- even moreso than ordinary teams that shuffle guys in and out -- will use a lot of arms this year. The only real important ones here, though, are the top 3-4 (we'll get to them).

Under-the-radar offseason transaction

Broken record: They're rebuilding. Thus, not many moves are going to look awesome for 2015. What about Odubel Herrera? He's a converted infielder who was grabbed in the Rule 5 Draft last December. In 96 games in Double-A last season, he hit .321/.373/.402 with 12 steals. Thus far in the spring, he's hitting .364/.400/.394 with four steals in four tries. Small sample caveats apply, of course.

Fantasy late-round flier: Ryan Howard, first base

From Al Melchior's full fantasy outlook:

For the first time in three years, Howard gave the Phillies close to a full season's worth of games, and the results were discouraging. In batting just .223 with 23 home runs, Howard ranked 17th among first basemen in Roto value and 18th in Fantasy points. If we were to assume further decline, both in his own skills and in the run-producing opportunities his fellow batsmen will afford him, it would be hard to see Howard having any value at all in 12-team mixed leagues. Given how often he is shifted and how often he pulls the ball, there may not be hope for much improvement in his batting average, but it may be premature to write off the possibility of a power rebound. Howard's legal battles with his family came to a head this past season, and just maybe, with those behind him, he could enjoy enough of a rebound to be worth a late-round pick or a $1 bid in standard mixed leagues.

Biggest strength

I'm going with the back-end of the bullpen.

Papelbon has brought a lot of the negative attention on himself, but he also had a very good season in 2014 overall. He saved 39 games in 43 chances with a 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 63 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings. That's the line of one of baseball's better closers. On a good team, he'd have gotten a lot more attention than simply for his quotes and a crotch-grab.

Behind him, though, there's some underrated -- at least nationally -- goodness.

If you don't know who this is, become acquainted soon, please.
If you don't know who this is, become acquainted soon, please. (USATSI)

Giles was incredible last season. As a 23-year-old rookie, he worked 45 2/3 innings, sporting a 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 64 strikeouts (that's 12.6 K/9). He blew zero leads in 14 chances (one save, 13 holds) and stranded 12 of the 14 runners he inherited. Opposing hitters put together a paltry .164/.220/.230 line against him. Studly.

Though not as much, I like the lefty Diekman, too. He struck out 100 batters in 71 innings last season. His ERA was a touch high (3.80) due to allowing too many baserunners (1.42 WHIP), though that was due in part to an abnormally high BABIP (.367). That and the 2.65 FIP suggests there's a correction in the ERA department coming. And he still only blew four leads in 22 tries. I like him to have a good year, making the back three here a pretty fierce trio.

De Fratus had a good season last year, too, posting a 2.39 ERA in 52 2/3 innings.

Biggest weakness

There are a lot here, but I'm picking rotation strength. This has the makings of a downright terrible rotation by midseason. Think about if Hamels is traded, Lee doesn't come back and the kids aren't ready to be promoted yet, the Phillies could be looking at a rotation like this:

Harang, Billingsley, Buchanan, Williams, Slowey.

Yikes.

Outlook

I'm finding it difficult to imagine even the most optimistic of Phillies fans believing this group has a chance to contend this season. GM Ruben Amaro is not making it a secret that Hamels is being shopped in addition to other veteran pieces like Howard and Papelbon as part of the rebuilding effort. A second consecutive last-place finish is possible, though I don't think we can say likely, since Atlanta looks pretty bad, too. Still, it appears this will be another long season in the City of Brotherly Love. Citizens Bank Park is more likely to be filled with Chip Kelly arguments than roars for good Phillies baseball.

Coming Friday: Previewing the Braves