2016 MLB team preview: Can Mariners end postseason drought?
The Mariners have baseball's longest active postseason drought. They haven't been to the playoffs since 2001. Let's preview their 2016 season.
Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the Seattle Mariners are up.
Previous: ATL | CIN | COL | DET | MIA | MIL | OAK | PHI | SD
Last year was the year the Mariners were supposed to get over the hump. They went 87-75 and missed the postseason by one stupid little game in 2014, then added Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith, and J.A. Happ in the offseason, among others. That was supposed to put Seattle over the top.
Cruz gave the Mariners an MVP caliber season in 2015, but a variety of injuries and subpar performances sent the club to an 76-86 finish, well out of the postseason race. The disappointing season cost GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Lloyd McClendon their jobs. Former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto took over as GM and he hired former big league catcher Scott Servais to manage the club. It's his first managerial job.
The Mariners have baseball's longest active postseason drought -- they haven't played October baseball since 2001, Ichiro's rookie year -- and Dipoto aggressively remade his roster this offseason. He made 11 trades and signed four major league free agents, plus he was active on the waiver wire. Seattle was one of baseball's busiest teams this winter. Will it get them over the hump and back to the postseason in 2016? Let's preview their season.
The Lineup
As always, the batting order is subject to change throughout the season as teams look to find the right mix. Here is our best guess at the Mariners' starting nine:
- LF Nori Aoki
- 3B Kyle Seager
- DH Nelson Cruz
- 2B Robinson Cano
- 1B Adam Lind
- RF Seth Smith
- C Chris Iannetta
- SS Ketel Marte
- CF Leonys Martin
Dipoto brought in Aoki (free agent), Lind (trade), Iannetta (free agent), and Martin (trade) over the winter. Iannetta and Martin were moves made to improve the up-the-middle defense. Lind was brought in to upgrade the team's first base production, which has been lacking big time over the years. Seattle's first basemen hit .235/.301/.401 (78 OPS+) in 2015. Lind hit .277/.360/.460 (122 OPS+) with the Brewers.
The core of the Mariners lineup is the 2-3-4 hitters: Seager, Cruz, and Cano. Seager has emerged as a steady and reliable two-way player, one who's hit .265/.333/.444 (121 OPS+) over the last three seasons and increased his home run total from 20 to 22 to 25 to 26 from 2012-15. Cruz hit a career best 44 homers with a .302/.369/.566 (160 OPS+) batting line a year ago. The plan is to give him more time at DH in 2016 to hide his shaky outfield defense.
A rebound by Cano is both completely possible and imperative, and not only because he has eight years and $192 million left on his contract. He hit .287/.334/.446 (118 OPS+) with 21 home runs in 2015, which is quite good, but does represent a big step down from the .314/.371/.518 (138 OPS+) he averaged from 2009-14. At age 33, that's a scary dip in production.
Cano played through some physical issues in the first half and hit only .251/.290/.370 (86 OPS+). Once healthy, he hit a much more Robinson Cano-like .331/.387/.540 (151 OPS+) after the All-Star break. There's reason to believe Cano will mash if he's healthy in 2016. The Mariners will need him to do exactly that. They're going nowhere with Cano being something less than a star-caliber producer.
Smith is expected to platoon with the righty hitting Franklin Gutierrez, and either Jesus Montero or Dae Ho Lee figures to spell Lind against tough lefties. Montero is out of minor league options, meaning he either has to make the team or be placed on waivers. The 33-year-old Lee hit 31 homers for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan a year ago. Steve Clevenger will be the backup catcher and one of Shawn O'Malley, Chris Taylor, or Luis Sardinas figures to be the backup infielder.
Marte and Martin could be the difference between a good offense and a great offense. Marte, 22, hit .283/.351/.402 (113 OPS+) in his 57-game cameo last year, and if he keeps that up, he could be hitting near the top of the lineup in short order. Martin hit a miserable .214/.264/.313 (55 OPS+) in 2015 while dealing with a wrist injury. He's a year removed from a .274/.325/.364 (92 OPS+) batting line. For what it's worth, ZiPS projects Marte and Martin as true talent 92 OPS+ and 88 OPS+ hitters in 2016, respectively.
FanGraphs projects the Mariners to score 4.28 runs per game this year, which ranks middle of the pack and would be a nice improvement over last season's 4.05 average. Cano is the key. If he can rebound with good health, Seattle will be dangerous. A rebound from Martin and continued good production from Marte would help as well. The Mariners have the pieces to do damage. Now they just have to, you know, do it.
The Rotation
The Mariners currently have seven starting pitchers for five rotation spots, though obviously some guys have a better chance of cracking the Opening Day rotation than others. Here's the current projected starting five:
- RHP Felix Hernandez
- RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
- LHP Wade Miley
- RHP Taijuan Walker
- LHP James Paxton
Righty Nathan Karns, who was acquired from the Rays in an offseason trade, and lefty Mike Montgomery are the other rotation candidates. We can also include righty Joe Wieland in this mix, though he seems destined for Triple A. Montgomery is out of options, so it's big leagues or waivers for him.
Felix is the undisputed ace and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Has been for the better part of a decade now. Seattle was able to bring Iwakuma back on a nice one-year contract (with two vesting options) after his medicals scared the Dodgers away over the winter. Miley came over in an offseason trade with the Red Sox that I didn't like, though he is a sturdy workhorse who will give the team innings.
Walker and Paxton are going to be huge to the 2016 Mariners. Walker, 23, showed flashes of brilliance a year ago ...
... but he finished the season with a 4.56 ERA (83 ERA+) in 169 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old Paxton had a 3.90 ERA (97 ERA+) in only 67 innings due to a nagging finger issue. Getting Walker to take a step forward in his development and keeping Paxton on the field will be huge for the Mariners.
This starting staff has the potential to dominate, and Karns is a very nice insurance policy as the No. 6 starter in case Iwakuma or Paxton again deal with injury problems. Besides, no team ever makes it through the season using only five starts. Karns will see plenty of action.
The Bullpen
Dipoto aggressively remade his bullpen this offseason. The team's top six in relief innings last season are all out of the organization, including the ultra-effective Carson Smith, who emerged as one of the game's top bullpen arms in 2015 only to be traded to the Red Sox in the Miley deal.
This is how the Mariners bullpen figures to shake out come Opening Day:
Closer: RHP Steve Cishek
Setup: RHP Joaquin Benoit
Middle: RHP Tony Zych, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Evan Scribner, RHP Justin De Fratus
Long: LHP Mike Montgomery
Furbush is currently working his way back from a shoulder injury and his status for the start of the regular season is up in the air. If he can't go come Opening Day, it would open the door for LHP Vidal Nuno to make the roster.
Scribner and bullpen hopeful Ryan Cook have both been dealing with lat issues in camp, which may throw a wrench into the Opening Day plans. Righties Mayckol Guaipe and Jonathan Aro are waiting in the wings as depth options, as are spring training non-roster invitees Joel Peralta, Blake Parker, and Brad Mills.
Dipoto gave Cishek a two-year, $10 million contract over the winter, indicating he believes the side-winding righty can bounce back from the 3.58 ERA (111 ERA+) he posted last year. That's above-average, but it's not close to the 2.70 ERA (144 ERA+) Cishek posted from 2011-14, when he was one of the top relievers in the game.
Benoit is a proven late-game veteran who could easily step into the closer's role should Cishek falter. Zych throws extremely hard and he burst onto the scene last year with 24 strikeouts and only three walks in 18 1/3 innings. Those three will be Servais' primary end-game arms.
There are some questions to be answered in this bullpen -- can Cishek rebound? can Benoit continue to stave off Father Time? will Furbush be healthy? can Scribner get over his extreme home run problems (2.1 HR/9 in 2015)? -- and they'll have to be answered positively for the Mariners to contend in 2016.
The Outlook
The Mariners are one of the biggest boom or bust teams in the league in my opinion. I could see this team winning 90 games and taking the AL West title. I could also see them winning 70 games and finishing in last place. Neither would surprise me at this point.
Our SportsLine projections peg Seattle for an 80-82 record in 2016. That represents a four-win improvement from 2015, but it's also not good enough to make serious noise in the postseason race. That said, it might take only 85-86 wins to secure an AL Wild Card spot this summer, and Seattle strikes me as a team that could do something big at the trade deadline if a postseason spot is within reach.
The Mariners do have some young talent (Walker, Paxton, Marte) but the core of this team is getting up there in age. I'm talking specifically about Cano and Cruz, and even Felix for that matter. He turns 30 in April and has a ton of innings on his arm. His strikeout, walk, and home run rates all went in the wrong direction last year.
Hernandez recently said it drives him crazy that he has not yet pitched in the postseason -- he debuted in 2005, four years after the team last made the playoffs -- and while I don't want to say their window is closing, the Mariners only have so long to contend with Cruz and Cano at the peak of their abilities.
Right now the Mariners look like a club that is good enough to remain relevant and stay in the hunt most of the season. They also have some red flags, enough that a 15th straight postseason-less season would not be a surprise.
Coming Thursday: The Chicago White Sox.
