JaVale McGee and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to build off of their two-win weekend on Tuesday as they travel to Oklahoma City to take on Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. The Lakers will be without LeBron James, who was just shut down for the season, and they may be missing Kyle Kuzma as well. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is fully healthy for this one, but that hasn't helped the Thunder much lately, as they've lost three of four games over the last week. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Sportsbooks list the Thunder as 12-point home favorites, down a half-point from the opener, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 225 in the latest Lakers vs. Thunder odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Thunder picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Thunder vs. Lakers. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it's also generated an extremely strong against the spread pick that cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware that Oklahoma City boasts a top-five defense and ranks ahead of L.A. in offensive efficiency, rebounding rate, assist-to-turnover ratio, and point differential. Everything on paper would point towards a potential blowout for a healthy Thunder team playing at home against a shorthanded Lakers squad.
In addition to all of the team metrics suggesting that this is a major mismatch, the Lakers simply don't have the personnel to slow down Westbrook and Paul George. Westbrook has averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists against L.A. this season, while George has put up 32 points per game against the Lakers.
But just because Oklahoma City has been a force at home doesn't mean it will cover the Thunder vs. Lakers spread.
The model is also well aware that for all the talk of OKC's dominance, the Lakers have already beaten the Thunder at Chesapeake once this year, and James didn't play in that game either. The model also knows how much OKC has struggled lately. Not only have the Thunder been losing, but they've been dropping games that Vegas didn't even expect to be close.
They were favored by 12.5 points at home against a Luka Doncic-less Mavericks team their last time out and ended up losing the game outright. A week before that, they were favored by 7.5 against a hapless Memphis Grizzlies team, only to fall by eight points. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has covered the spread in five straight games entering Tuesday's action.
So who wins Thunder vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Thunder vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
