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  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    #2
    +772
    (73%)
    11-4 in Last 15 MLB Picks
    Over 7
    -106
    Over/Under
    Picked: May 1 @ 12:49pm

    Analysis

    Zac Gallen has stayed under the total in his last five starts, but this is an Arizona team that puts up 10.2 runs per game, allowing 5.5 runs, and has gone over the total 18 times. The Cubs have gone over 20 times, scoring 5.45 runs per game. But the total sits at 7 because the wind is blowing in at 10 miles per hour. Arizona's bullpen is awful, ranking 25th with an ERA at 5.03, and they've allowed 10 runs or more in four of their last nine games. The bullpen needs some help, and it needs more than backup catcher James McCann pitching in four games this year. Over is the play.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    +33
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    M. Keller
    Over 16.5
    -113
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: May 1 @ 9:03am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. Mitch Keller has been solid in the middle of the rotation for the upstart Pirates, pitching to a 3.18 ERA (3.84 xERA). Clearing this line in 4/6 starts, Keller is an efficient, pitch-to-contact pitcher who typically avoids barrels. Consistently utilizing less pitches than average (3.74 per plate appearance is 35th lowest of 138 qualifiers), Keller is able to keep his pitch count down. And despite the Reds hot bats (albeit against weaker pitchers of late), I like Keller’s chances to minimize damage today. Cincy’s lineup skews righty, which is the strong side of Keller’s platoon (.311 OPS allowed). Great pitching weather today as well.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    #1
    +2491
    (65%)
    68-36 in Last 104 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Thompson
    Over 6.5
    -143
    Rebounds
    Picked: Apr 30 @ 11:37pm

    Analysis

    Pistons all-world defender Ausar Thompson has played 32 or more minutes in three straight games and is coming off an incredible all-around performance: 15 rebounds, six assists, five steals and two blocks (not to mention six points). The 23-year-old has recorded seven, eight, eight, nine and 15 boards in this series. Fellow starter Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable for Game 6. He's averaging 7.6 rebounds in this series, so his potential absence (or if he's limited) would put even more of a rebounding burden on Thompson. I would also play this Over 7.5 at even money or better.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    player headshot
    D. Bane
    Over 2.5
    +116
    3PT Field Goals
    Picked: May 1 @ 9:18am

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Desmond Bane has averaged 8.8 three point attempts per game this series. His drives to the basket are down in the playoffs from 10.8 in the regular season to 6.2. It makes sense - the Pistons are one of the most physical, one-on-one teams, and Bane is being checked primarily by defensive stalwart (and athletic freak) Ausar Thompson. To compensate, Bane is taking far more pull-up threes (5.4 compared to 2.4 in the regular season). Without Franz Wagner, the Magic will need Bane to score, and I see that coming from behind the arc. A 40.7% shooter at home in the regular season (and 12/19 in the playoffs) - I absolutely love this line, and think it’s mispriced at plus odds.
  • expert headshot
    David Bearman
    +282
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    W. Carter Jr.
    Under 22.5
    -111
    PTS + AST + REB
    Picked: May 1 @ 11:49am

    Analysis

    With Orlando's Franz Wagner out for Game 5, the Magic shifted to a more isolation-based offense. He's out for Game 6 as well. More isolation for the Magic means less creation and driving to the hoop. They had 26% less drives in Game 5. Over 86% of Wendall Carter's points have come from no-dribble attempts. With fewer creations and driving, that's fewer opportunities for Carter. He scores when people drive and dish. Detroit defense (5th-fewest assists per made bucket allowed) is doing what it does and forcing isolation sets. Carter isn't afraid to launch, but he's 3-of-12 from 3 in series and was 27.8% post-All Star Break. Jalen Duren has struggled in the series, but handled the putbacks, which is less for Carter as well.

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