UTSA (12-1) secured its first-ever Conference USA title this season. The Roadrunners beat Western Kentucky 49-41 in a high-scoring conference title game. No. 24 San Diego State, meanwhile, made its first conference championship game since 2016. Ultimately, the Aztecs fell to Utah State 46-13 in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Now UTSA and San Diego State will meet up Tuesday evening in the 2021 Frisco Bowl. The Roadrunners will be without star running back Sincere McCormick, who has opted out to focus on NFL Draft preparations. 

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Aztecs as 2.5-point favorites in the latest San Diego State vs. UTSA odds. That's a reversal after the Roadrunners opened as small favorites. The over-under for total points is set at 49, down a point from the opening Frisco Bowl line. Before finalizing any UTSA vs. San Diego State picks or Frisco Bowl 2021 predictions, be sure to see the betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-29 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights UTSA vs. San Diego State and locked in its Frisco Bowl 2021 picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting trends for San Diego State vs. UTSA: 

  • UTSA vs. San Diego State spread: San Diego State -2.5
  • UTSA vs. San Diego State over-under: 49 points
  • UTSA vs. San Diego State money line: San Diego State -140, UTSA +120
  • UTSA: Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • SDSU: Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog
Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. UTSA Roadrunners

Why UTSA can cover

UTSA's offense averages 37.8 points per game, but the Roadrunners can get it done on the other side of the ball as well. UTSA's run defense was ranked second in Conference USA, giving up just 111.5 yards per game on the ground. Senior linebacker Clarence Hicks played a big part. He made stops in the backfield all season long. Hicks led the team in tackles for loss (16) and sacks (10). The Florida native has recorded at least two sacks in four games. In his last outing against Western Kentucky, Hicks had four total tackles along with two sacks.

Junior safety Rashad Wisdom has been all over the field for UTSA. He leads the team in total stops with 86. Wisdom has logged three double-digit tackling performances this season. In the month of November, the Texas native had two games with 10 total tackles. Look for this unit to come out aggressive and try to limit San Diego State's ground attack. 

Why San Diego State can cover

The Aztecs love to run the ball. They have found plenty of success this past season and were one of the top rushing teams in the Mountain West. San Diego State is ranked third in rushing yards per game (176.3) with 24 rushing touchdowns. Senior running back Greg Bell leads the charge in the Aztec backfield. 

Bell finished the season ranked third in the conference in rushing yards (990) with eight rushing scores. The California native rushed for more than 100 yards in four matchups this season. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State's run defense was exceptional this season. The Aztecs were first in the Mountain West conference with 77.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Junior defensive lineman Cameron Thomas is a big reason for this. He has logged 68 total tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 11.5 sacks. 

How to make UTSA vs. San Diego State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. It also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins San Diego State vs. UTSA in the Frisco Bowl 2021? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,700 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.