2014 Draft Prep: Sleepers, 2.0
Want some names to target near the end of your drafts that could push your ssquad over the top? Our Joe Polito looks at both Head-to-Head and Roto options for Draft Day.
For our second round of sleepers, we'll split them into two groups: points league sleepers, and categories sleepers. This is an important distinction because a good sleeper in Rotisserie is typically a low-end specialist, while a points sleeper is the guy with questionable shooting percentages who could go off or someone with assist potential.
This column is going to go much deeper than the average sleepers list. We've avoided trendy guys like Draymond Green and Markieff Morris because they're the kinds of up and comers most people who play Fantasy basketball are well aware of now. The following players are much more of the lottery ticket variety. Many of them might not even get drafted, so this sleepers list will extend to the early-season Waiver Wire as well.
Points league point guard: Kendall Marshall, Bucks
If you played Fantasy basketball last season, you probably remember the mad dash to the Waiver Wire to grab that D-League guy who was racking up assists on a bad but fun Lakers team. That guy was Kendall Marshall, who took full advantage of the Mike D'antoni point guard boost by basically being a poor man's Ricky Rubio when L.A. was decimated at point guard. In the month of January, Marshall averaged a stellar 11.9 points, 11.5 assists and 2.0 made 3s per game. Because assists count as double in standard points leagues, there was a good stretch when Marshall was a must-start at point guard. But gone are the opportunities that came with the Lakers' barren roster and point guard friendly system. Marshall landed in Milwaukee, where there are many playable guards waiting. Still, he's one of the only assist specialists in the whole league, so there's a lot to be excited about if he somehow gets ample playing time. He reached double digit dimes in 25 of his 54 games last year, and there's a case to be made that he's the only true point guard on the Bucks roster. You have to figure that Jason Kidd is the perfect person to recognize Marshall's uncanny ability to see the floor, so that alone makes him worth a flier at the end of your points draft.
Categories league point guard: C.J. Watson, Pacers
Things are going to be completely different in Indiana this year, and that could translate to a larger role for underutilized scoring guard Watson. On a team with high-usage perimeter players like Lance Stephenson and Paul George, Watson was relegated to just 6.6 points and 1.7 assists last year. But so far this preseason, he's taken advantage of the crater-sized void out on the perimeter to the tune of 11.5 points, 5.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, including 2.5 made 3s. Yes, it's only a two-game sample size, but Watson is the kind of instant offense the Pacers will desperately need to complement their defensive identity. He does a lot of his damage from the three-point line, and is capable enough of running a second unit offense to pick up a few assists. Gamble on Watson in categories leagues if you're looking for a guard whose role might increase this season.
Points league shooting guard: O.J. Mayo, Bucks
My fingers began to ache as I typed his name into my column about Fantasy players worth drafting, but Mayo has apparently dropped weight and bought into Kidd's system, so what the heck. If you have to start a shooting guard, you'll be grasping at straws for depth as it is, so why not grab a guy who has serious scoring chops on a team without another true two? The Bucks want to play faster this season, and even in just 26 minutes per game last year Mayo managed to sleep walk his way to 11.7 points per game. So renewed focus will have him scoring higher in the double digits, and more time on the court with a faster offense will help him pick up a few of the peripheral stats that will round out his sleeper value.
We've preached about avoiding the Bucks and their mess of a roster, and that makes sense for the middle tier guys after Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders. So for the same reasons that I'll mostly avoid Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brandon Knight and Ersan Ilyasova with my meaningful picks, I'll probably be willing to gamble on low-risk, high-reward fliers like Marshall and Mayo. It doesn't really make sense to spend late-round picks on teams that have solidified rotations, so come – join me on this adventure into the bowels of the Bucks' roster. Mayo's horrendous year with Milwaukee is only one season removed from a pretty useful 15.3 points and 4.4 assists with the Mavericks, so he seems worth a spot on the end of your bench.
Categories league shooting guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons
He was pretty useless his rookie year for Fantasy purposes, but with every minute he has played since the Pistons regular season ended, Caldwell-Pope has shown that he's no draft bust. He has averaged 16.7 points on 2.33 made 3 per game. He doesn't really do anything else, but he'll be a nice late-round 3-point specialist if he keeps the momentum he has built this offseason. KCP led all scorers at the Orlando summer league with 24.0 points per game, and has shot a blistering 46.7 percent from 3 in three preseason games. Jodie Meeks is out for the foreseeable future, so Stan Van Gundy will need to play Caldwell-Pope heavy minutes at shooting guard to keep his already crowded floor properly spaced.
He profiled to be exactly this kind of quick-shooting specialist out of the draft, and it may very well be the case that the structure this team gets with the arrival of Van Gundy will be all KCP needs to prove his worth. He won't really do anything other than score, but how he scores could give you a small boost in 3-pointers toward the end of your categories draft.
Points league small forward: Hollis Thompson, 76ers
You speculate on sleepers by identifying spots on various teams that need to be filled. The 76ers pretty much need to fill all of them. We just have no clue who is going to produce stats on this team, but somebody has to. That's where you come in during your draft. Nerlens Noel and Michael Carter-Williams are the only two “sure things” for Fantasy, but that just means you'll get any other Philadelphia contributor at a bargain. Tony Wroten is the trendy sleeper pick with a 10th round ADP, but if you want to go even deeper, you can grab Hollis Thompson, a capable scorer at perhaps the most shallow position. Nobody truly knows what the 76ers will look like this season, but it's worth grabbing a piece of the speculative pie just in case.
Categories league small forward: K.J. McDaniels, 76ers
Same theory as above, except with more defensive stats. The hope is the 76ers play at a similar blistering pace as last season, thus creating tons of block and steal opportunities for their blitzing defense. If that's the case, then there is no better fit than McDaniels out on the wing. He has outpaced Nerlens Noel in blocks per game so far this preseason despite playing eight fewer minutes. The downside here is that he has been the opposite of efficient, hitting only 40.0 percent of his field goals and an abysmal 16.7 percent of his three-point attempts. Hopefully he's taking smarter shots once the real games begin, but his defensive prowess makes him well worth a flier toward the end of your categories draft. It also looks like he'll slot in at shooting guard to start the season, meaning you'll have some positional flexibility on the wing. McDaniels is becoming a trendier pick himself, so if you miss out on him, Quincy Acy of the Knicks or James Johnson of the Raptors might be the next best things for defensive stats at small forward.
Points league center: Boris Diaw, Spurs
Nothing sexy about this pick, but in a league where you're hunting for assist potential in the later rounds, Diaw seems like a nice gamble. He has center eligibility, which makes him a useful last-minute injury replacement, and his play in the Finals combined with his contract's weight-loss incentives make him a good candidate to increase his numbers. He works well as a Tim Duncan handcuff, but even if you don't draft Duncan, Diaw has some potential as a playmaker with San Antonio's second unit. If the Spurs are tough to trust for Fantasy, then why not make your pick from their team a guy with low risk? Last season he only averaged 9.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, but he still finished ahead of Timofey Mozgov, Miles Plumlee and Samuel Dalembert in total Fantasy points despite playing fewer games than each. That's because those assists add up. In a categories league, Diaw's very low rebound and block numbers just aren't doable for a center, but in a points league, it doesn't matter how he gets there. As long as he can get close to 20 Fantasy points per game, he deserves a spot on your roster.
Categories league center: Rudy Gobert, Jazz
We've seen plenty of tall guys drop in and out of the league over the years, but not many possess the coordination of Utah's latest 7-foot-1 project, Rudy Gobert. The thing to invest in here is the fact that Gobert isn't just some bumbling novelty big man, he actually possesses the lateral movement needed to track and block shots in today's league. Last season he averaged a ridiculous 3.4 blocks per 36 minutes in his first season. In the preseason, he has stuffed 1.71 shots, scored 9.1 points and grabbed 7.1 rebounds per game while only getting 20 minutes a night to do so. That seven-game sample size is the kind of production the Jazz might want off the bench this year. He'll be a legit shot-blocking threat no matter how few minutes he's afforded, so anything that comes with it will certainly be a bonus in your categories league. Gobert is another trendy young center who could go before you're ready to take him. If that's the case, Chris Andersen and Brandan Wright have very similar block specialist roles.














