Marlins-Yankees trade analysis: Martin Prado provides flexibility
Martin Prado gives the Marlins flexibility in the field while Nathan Eovaldi gives the Yankees upside in the rotation.
Friday, the Marlins and Yankees got together for an interesting trade, albeit definitely not a blockbuster. Let's check it out.
Marlins get: RHP David Phelps, UT Martin Prado
Yankees get: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 1B Garrett Jones, RHP Domingo German
Most significant for me here is the flexibility that Prado gives Miami in addition to the Yankees taking Eovaldi's upside over Phelps'.
As things stand, Prado seems likely to be the everyday third baseman, sending Casey McGehee to be the backup at both corner infield spots and also a late-inning pinch hitter.
Remember, though, second baseman Dee Gordon was terrible in both 2012 and 2013 at the plate. After the All-Star break last season, Gordon -- expected to be the leadoff hitter -- had only a .300 on-base percentage while striking out 47 times against just four walks. If there are struggles, Prado can step in at second while McGehee plays third.
First baseman Mike Morse has great power in addition to an extensive injury history. Since his breakout 2011 campaign, Morse has played in 321 games (an average of 107 per season) with two lengthy DL stints and also missed the last several weeks last season -- when the Giants were clawing just to get into the playoffs. The Marlins already had McGehee as a backup option there, but now they'll be able to play Prado at third.
Also note that up until last season, Gordon was a shortstop. An injury to Adeiny Hechavarria could mean a shift of Gordon to short with Prado taking second. Prado can deal with the position in small doses, too.
Prado can also handle the corner outfield spots if something were to happen to Christian Yelich or Giancarlo Stanton. Though I believe he'll start pretty much everyday, the super-utility label fits Prado well and he's a piece that fits nicely with the Marlins roster.
Throw in a career .291/.340/.429 line with the ability to be a doubles machine -- he's had at least 35 doubles in four different seasons -- and this is a nice get for Miami.
Then again, you have to give something to get something, and Eovaldi still has good upside. Sure, he's 15-35 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at the big-league level, but he's still only 24 years old. There's a reason he made it to the Show at age 21. He's got the talent. In 18 starts in 2013, he had a 3.39 ERA (114 ERA+), too.
The peripheral metrics fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) show Eovaldi actually pitched better than his traditional stats show last season, too. Against a 4.37 ERA last season, Eovaldi had a 3.37 FIP, partially due to a high .323 BABIP. He still needs to pitch better, but those are at least signs that he wasn't as bad as it looked in 2014.
Further, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs finds an interesting comparison of Garrett Richards (read the full story, I'm not going to paste it), who had a breakout season at age 26 last year. If nothing else, Eovaldi is younger and has more room to improve than Phelps.
As for the other pieces, Phelps is rotation depth and a long reliever all in one for Miami, Jones is another first base/DH type for the Yankees -- and given the fragility of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez at this point, that can't hurt -- and German is a Class A pitcher.
