The San Diego Padres saw their 2024 season end at the hated hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who bounced them with a 2-0 defeat in the decisive Game 5 of the National League Division Series Friday. While those Dodgers are headed to the NLCS, the Padres are left to appreciate the season past and look forward to what should be another contending run in 2025.
First, though, this season. Coming off a disappointing 2023 that saw them go 82-80, the Padres traded superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the Yankees, dealt for ace Dylan Cease, and then proceeded to win 93 games – their most since 1998 – under first-year manager Mike Shildt. Those 2023 Padres were largely undone by poor offensive numbers in high-leverage spots and, not unrelated, a 2-12 record in extra innings with that automatic runner in use. Those one-off frailties figured to correct this year, and that's what happened. The Pads in 2024 surged offensively when the game was on the line and, not unrelated, went 10-2 in regular-season extras. At a fundamental level, the 2024 team wasn't all that different from the 2023 model, but in the standings they were very different. This time, they made it back to the postseason and swept the Braves in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Dodgers.
On other levels, the Padres in a year when league batting levels declined scored their most runs in a season since 2004. When full league and ballpark contexts are applied, the 2024 Padres may have put together the best offensive attack in franchise history. That's a feat that becomes more impressive in light of the Soto trade. Eight players reached double digits in homers, and six hit at least 15 this season. Manny Machado led the team in homers, Jurickson Profar enjoyed a career year, Fernando Tatis Jr. was his usual self when healthy, and Jackson Merrill was a rookie sensation. Cease and Michael King, who came to the Padres as part of the Soto blockbuster, formed a formidable front end of the rotation.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Padres have several notables likely headed for free agency this winter: shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, Profar, catcher Kyle Higashioka, lefty Martín Pérez, and reliever Tanner Scott. In 2024, those five players contributed a combined 9.3 WAR to the San Diego cause. Bringing back some of those names and finding suitable replacements for the others should be a priority this offseason. It's not certain how much Padres ownership is willing to invest to that end, but significant payroll retrenchment will harm the team's chances next year. As well, right-handed starter Joe Musgrove's Tommy John surgery means he's likely to miss the entire 2025 season. While he's been limited by health woes the last two seasons, he's been an ace for the Padres when healthy and thus won't be easily replaced. Of note is that there's not a great deal of help on the way, at least in 2025, from a farm system that's been thinned out by trades in recent years.
The returning core, though, is an impressive one. Under contract or under team control through at least next season are Machado, Tatis, Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Merrill, and others. That's a strong foundation no matter what happens with the rest of the roster, and because of that foundation the Padres once again project as contenders, especially with three wild-card spots available in each league.
As suggested above, Padres ownership since the death of Peter Seidler hasn't been as committed as was once the case. Under Seidler, the small-market Padres, per Cot's Contracts estimates, rose from ninth in Opening Day payroll in 2021 to fifth in 2022 to third in 2023. This season, though, the first since Seidler's passing, the Padres sloughed off almost $85 million from that 2023 Opening Day figure and ranked 14th in MLB going into 2024. Padres owners need to stop the bleeding right there and ensure lead decision-maker A.J. Preller has the resources he needs to continue pursuing the franchise's first World Series title. The pieces are in place for just such a run, but ownership must do its part in order to return to the playoffs in 2025 and beyond.
