NFL odds, picks for Week 3: Advanced computer model loving Giants and Rams

We're only entering the third week of the NFL season and injuries are already a major concern for several big-name players. Dalvin Cook (hamstring), Joe Mixon (knee) and Jay Ajayi (back) will all miss Sunday's action due to injuries. The latest NFL odds for Week 3 reflect these absences and others as bettors react. The Eagles, who will have Corey Clement as their lead back, are now full touchdown favorites at home over the Colts, who will be without TE Jack Doyle (hip) and RB Marlon Mack (foot, hamstring). And the Jaguars are now 10-point favorites, after opening at -6.5, over the Titans, who could be without quarterback Marcus Mariota in this AFC South showdown. With so much uncertainty and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to see the NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It also nailed its three top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) in their big upset of the Steelers

Now it has simulated every snap of Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and its Week 3 NFL picks are in. 

One Week 3 NFL pick the model is all over: The Rams (-7) roll over the Chargers in a battle for Los Angeles. 

The Chargers, powered by three touchdowns from Melvin Gordon, easily took care of the Bills in Week 2. But the completion steps up in a big way against the Rams, who have outscored opponents 67-13 and are focused on a Super Bowl run. The Rams held Cardinals quarterback Sam Bradford under 100 yards on 27 attempt and limited David Johnson to just 48 yards.

The model says Jared Goff will throw for over 250 yards, while Todd Gurley has a strong chance to record 100 yards on the ground as the Rams cover the spread in almost 55 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 45 total points to be scored, clearing the under (48) with room to spare.

Another one of the top Week 3 NFL picks you can make with confidence: the Giants (+6) cover on the road at Houston. 

Both teams are 0-2 straight-up and against the spread, but have plenty of firepower on offense, even if their records have been lackluster so far. The Giants came within five points of beating the Jaguars in Week 1 and have dynamic rookie Saquon Barkley, who has the longest run from scrimmage of any back this season at 68 yards. The Texans, meanwhile, came within a touchdown of beating the Patriots two weeks ago.

The line on this game opened at Texans -3.5, but has since grown by 2.5. SportsLine's model says that's too much for a Houston team that's averaging fewer than 20 points per game and lost to the Blaine Gabbert-quarterbacked Titans last week. New York covers in 54 percent of simulations, and the model also says there's plenty of value on the Giants' money line (+220). 

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge battle between the Chiefs and 49ers featuring Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo, and is calling for a team with postseason aspirations to get shocked at home by an underdog. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And what favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-16.5, 41.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44.5)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2, 53.5)
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 46.5)
New York Giants at Houston Texans (-6, 42.5)
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3, 44.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 46)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10, 40)
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 55)
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 45)
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angles Rams (-7, 48.5)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+6, 38.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 40.5)
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+7, 54.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 54.5)

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