Arizona Cardinals v Los Angeles Rams - NFL 2025
Getty Images

Heading into Wild Card Weekend, there's only one game that's expected to be a blow out and that's the matchup happening in Carolina between the Panthers and the Rams. 

With just hours to go until kickoff, the Rams are favored by 10.5 points, which is notable, because if that ends up being the closing point spread, it would make Los Angeles the biggest ROAD favorite in the Super Bowl era. Over the past 60 years, there have only been two instances where a road team was favored by 10 points, but with the Rams favored by 10.5, they would break the record by a half point. 

Although the Rams are a huge favorite, that probably won't mean much to the Panthers, who have thrived as an underdog this year. The Panthers won eight games as an underdog in 2025, which ties the record for the most wins by an underdog since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Also, NFL teams that were an underdog of 10 points or more this year went a combined 2-32, which broke down like this: 

  • The Panthers went 2-0 with wins over the Rams (-10) and Packers (-13)
  • The other 31 teams went a combined 0-32
NFL Wild Card Weekend odds, predictions, expert picks: Best bets, where to watch, NFL playoffs, stream, more
Tyler Sullivan
NFL Wild Card Weekend odds, predictions, expert picks: Best bets, where to watch, NFL playoffs, stream, more

From a historical standpoint, the Rams will have to defy history if they want to cover the spread in this game. According to Pro Football Reference, this game will mark just the 10th time over the past 50 years that a road team has been favored by four points or more in a playoff game. Here's how the favored team did in each of the previous nine games: 

  • They went 0-9 against the spread
  • They went 3-6 straight-up with the three wins coming by an average of 4.3 points per game

Of the three wins, one came from a 2015 Seahawks team that only won because Minnesota's Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of a 10-9 Vikings' loss. Another win came from a 2012 49ers team that trailed 17-0 against the Falcons in the NFC title game before rallying to win, 28-24. 

So all nine games have been close and the favored team has NEVER covered a single time in five decades. The last time a road team was favored by at least 10 points in a playoff game came during the 2020 season when Tom Brady's Buccaneers were favored by 10 points in a road game against a Washington team that went 7-9 that year. The Panthers made the playoffs with a losing record, just like Washington did five years ago. 

Carolina was just the fifth team in NFL history to win its division with a losing record joining the 2010 Seahawks, the 2014 Panthers, the 2020 Commanders and 2022 Buccaneers. Out of that group, two of them won in the wild-card round, including the 2014 Panthers. The 2010 Seahawks also won, which is notable here, because they were a 10-point underdog at home against Drew Brees and the Saints. The 2010 Saints, 2020 Buccaneers and 2025 Rams are the only three teams in NFL history to be favored by at least 10 points in a road playoff game. 

If NFL history is any indication, the Panthers have a good chance to cover and they might even pull off the upset in a game that kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox.