You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
Why did Vladimir Guerrero drop so far in the rankings this year? Last year he was listed in the top five and now you see him out of the first round. His numbers in 2006 were better than in 2005 and he's only 31. Why the big drop? -- Jay Sabo, Hamilton, N.J.
MH: Jay, I am glad you asked this question. Vlad's drop in the rankings has more to do with other players surging up the Fantasy rankings rather than his plunge down.
Granted, Guerrero hit more homers in '06 than ' 05 (33 to 32); had more RBI (116 to 108); had a better batting average (.329 to .317); and also stole more bases (15 to 13); but as you put it best -- he just turned 31 years old.
Vlad has been a symbol of consistency the last decade. In eight of the past nine seasons he has hit more than 30 homers and driven in more than 100 RBI. The only reason he didn't accomplish that feat in nine consecutive seasons is because he was injured in 2003 with the Expos. Still, he jacked 25 homers and drove in 79 runs in 394 at-bats. But after the age of 30, it is typical to start seeing a decline in production.
Guerrero is still a top 20 Fantasy option, but with the likes of Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Carl Crawford and Grady Sizemore just entering the prime of their careers -- it is hard to go against a youth movement in Fantasy leagues.
Who would you rather have at 2B in a head-to-head league for the next five-plus years: Robinson Cano or Howie Kendrick? -- Mark Jackson, Minneapolis, Minn.
MH: Personally, I like Kendrick. But the safe bet is Cano.
Cano is coming off a monster year in which he hit .342 with 15 homers and 78 RBI. That even came after he missed six weeks with a hamstring injury. The reason Cano is the safe bet is because you know what you are getting with him. We have already seen the potential and he will always have lineup protection playing in pinstripes. He is already among the top five Fantasy second baseman and could move up behind the Chase Utley in the rankings with a good season.
On the other hand with Kendrick, we know the hype, but can he deliver in the majors? He hit .285 with four homers and 30 RBI in 267 at-bats as a rookie in 2006, and this year will be the first look we get at him during an entire season. If he busts, then he will have to prove himself all over again in 2008. Now you are talking about two out of five years that will be spent waiting on Kendrick to breakout. With Cano, you are likely going to get solid production during those two years while Kendrick adjusts to the majors. This is all theoretical of course, but you can see where I am going with this line of thinking.
Now, I like to take risks with certain types of up-and-coming talent, and I have personally pegged Kendrick as one of those players. However, I can't wholeheartedly make that recommendation to other Fantasy players. I am willing to absorb all that risk that is involved on taking a chance with Kendrick, but I couldn’t suggest someone else to live as dangerously. That is why I would say take Cano over Kendrick at this stage. There are far less unknowns with selecting Cano.
I need a backup shortstop and I'm relegated to picking one up from the available player pool. My question is how good is Colorado rookie Troy Tulowitzki and is he worth obtaining? -- Patrick Mannion, Kissimmee, Fla.
MH: Patrick, it would have been nice to have known a little bit more about your league's specs (i.e. mixed leagues, 10-team, etc.), but I can probably guess it is a mixed-league because Tulowitzki wasn't drafted. Regardless, I still can't believe Tulowitzki is available in your league. Yes, pick him up as soon as possible.
With Tulowitzki, you are talking about the NL Rookie of the Year candidate heading into spring training. There have been some reports that Clint Barmes still has a shot to win the starting job at shortstop in Colorado, but that could be just motivation by the team to make sure Tulowitzki is ready to start come opening day.
He got a taste of life in the majors at the tail end of 2006. He hit .240 with one homer and six RBI in 96 at-bats. He also had three stolen bases, but he never played higher than Double-A before getting called up.
Don't expect the world from Tulowitzki in 2007, but you are looking for a backup shortstop and he fits the mold -- especially since he is considered a top rookie in most Fantasy formats.
Tulowitzki is already a top 25 Fantasy shortstop and owners in deeper mixed leagues should not hesitate taking a flier on the future at short for the Rockies.
I am in a 12-team, 5x5 keeper league (with OBP in place of AVG). We keep six players each year. I recently traded my 2nd-round (after keepers) pick for Kansas City's Alex Gordon. Have I mortgaged my future or will Gordon make me look like a genius? -- Ryan McDonald Lincoln, Neb.
MH: Ryan, you didn't mortgage your future for Gordon, you probably increased your portfolio. (Sorry, I had to make the cheesy investment analogy.)
Let's take a look at what you are potentially giving up based on rankings in a 12-team, seasonal league. Of course we will mix in the keeper principles as well.
Since you are allowed to keep six players that means typically the second round in a keeper league is the eighth round in seasonal leagues. So right there that is 84 players off the board. According to our rankings, Phillies starter Brett Myers is the 85th best player available with the likes of Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Nick Swisher, Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez right behind him. Not too long after you eventually get to the person Gordon is succeeding at third base -- Mark Teahen (No. 102).
All of the above mentioned players will likely help you more in the near term (i.e. 2007 season), but Gordon is a long-term investment worth making. You are talking about the most hyped player since perhaps Chipper Jones was making his way through the minors.
In just one professional season out of the University of Nebraska, Gordon hit .325 with 29 homers and 101 RBI in 130 games at Double-A Wichita. Not to mention he also swiped 22 stolen bases. We are talking about a future Fantasy stud in the making.
The Royals will make a decision at the end of spring training on whether to hand the reigns over to Gordon or send him down to Triple-A for a little more seasoning. But since you are in a keeper league, to get your hands on Gordon now makes a world of sense.
AL-only owners for sure want to draft Gordon this spring because it is likely he will be up at some point in 2007. Mixed-league owners need to keep an eye on his spring progress. If it looks as though he will make the team, add him to your roster ASAP. He has the potential to be a Fantasy breakout immediately.
I am trying to choose between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau for my final keeper spot. We are allowed one outfielder, one infielder, one pitcher and one wild card. My other keepers are Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, and Dontrelle Willis. I'm inclined to keep Mauer because of his position, but cutting last year's AL MVP and letting someone else get him almost seems like a crime to me. What do you think? -- Dan Greenberg, New York, N.Y.
MH: The way I see it Dan, you don't have to decide between Mauer and Morneau. If I were you, I would keep Soriano (OF), Morneau (INF), Willis (P) and Mauer (WC).
I know Wells is coming off a monster season, but he is 28 years old, whereas Morneau is just 25 years old. Basically that is what it boils down to because Soriano, Mauer and Willis are your top three keepers. Wells and Morneau are the fringe guys because they are a dime a dozen right now in the Fantasy rankings at their respective positions.
If I were in your position, I am going with keeping Morneau. I have drafted him for years in seasonal leagues, and I finally was rewarded with his play in 2006. I have in fact drafted him as one of my top picks in every draft I have taken part in thus far, and that sometimes is before the likes of Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Mark Teixeira and Lance Berkman.
It is not far fetched to think Morneau can post similar numbers this season to his AL MVP run in 2006 (.321-34-130-97-3) and only continue to build on his stats. The only category Wells beat Morneau in last season was stolen bases (17).
Also, Morneau is ahead of Wells in the Fantasy rankings coming in at No. 23 as opposed to No. 37.
However, if you are dead set on deciding between Mauer and Morneau, then it is a no-brainer -- you take Mauer. I don't usually like drafting catchers, but since it is such a thin position, you already have the best option at catcher and you would be hard-pressed to pass up on a clear-cut No. 1 position player.
But I do hope you take my advice and go with Soriano, Morneau, Willis and Mauer, meaning you would drop Wells.
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
