Waiver Wire: Nelson's still not owned enough
Is Jimmy Nelson available in your league? He shouldn't be. Scott White also looks at waiver cases for Tony Watson, Josh Reddick and Josh Hamilton.
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At 77 percent, Jimmy Nelson is probably just a little too owned to be featured in a waiver wire column.
But judging by some of the pitchers owned in even a higher percentage of leagues -- Drew Hutchison, Brandon McCarthy and Rick Porcello, to name a few -- he's still not owned enough.
With apologies to Shane Greene and Trevor Bauer, Nelson is the pitcher whose stock has risen the most this season, at least in my eyes. You may look at Greene's leading point total in Head-to-Head leagues and Bauer's eye-popping strikeout rate and think I have it backward, but given his history, I think Nelson's performance is the most sustainable.
Last year, the 25-year-old had a 1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the Pacific Coast League -- a notorious hitter's league where higher elevations often skew results. You see all the problems Noah Syndergaard has had there the last two years. Nelson accomplished it by inducing ground balls at an exceptionally high rate while still also missing bats -- a rare combination of skills that could one day make him an ace.
It didn't translate to the majors at first because he didn't have his arsenal completely fleshed out, but the curveball he added this spring appears to have made all the difference. Two of his three starts have been nothing short of ace-like.
So if he's still available in your league, make a move before it's too late. He may end up being this year's Jake Arrieta.
Tony Watson, RP, Pirates (19 percent owned)
Watson got his first save Wednesday, the day after Mark Melancon's latest meltdown, which doesn't necessarily mean he's on the verge of taking over as closer or even that he's next in line.
It wasn't a save in the most traditional sense. On a day when Melancon was known to be unavailable, Watson still pitched the eighth inning like usual. He just stuck around for the ninth as well. Of course, the Pirates may have been saving him for the ninth. Jared Hughes, the other top candidate to replace Melancon, began the eighth but needed Watson to bail him out after putting four runners on base.
The Pirates are standing by Melancon for now, but with his average fastball velocity down 3-5 mph, I'm not confident he'll turn it around. If I needed save help, I'd be picking up Watson today.
Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics (37 percent owned)
Reddick hasn't been especially relevant in Fantasy since hitting 32 home runs in 2012, and even that year, he did most of his damage in the first half. But something changed for him last year after he returned from a lengthy absence for a knee injury. Over the final 2 1/2 months, he cut his strikeout rate in half, hitting .299 with eight home runs and an .869 OPS in 184 at-bats.
It was an isolated enough event to dismiss as a fluke, but now, nine games back from an oblique injury, he's back at it, striking out just four times in 36 at-bats with a .306 batting average. We know he has power. He just hasn't been able to make contact enough to get the most out of it. If that's changed for him, he'll be quite the find off the waiver wire.
And because of his early injury this year, few have caught on to it yet.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels (40 percent owned)
You may have heard some buzz about Hamilton recently. The Angels at least have a plan in place to work him back into the lineup once he's fully recovered from shoulder surgery. But after he stumbled in his battle with substance abuse this offseason, they don't seem fully invested in him either.
No doubt, his struggles the last two years have something to do with it. He was barely getting drafted in standard mixed leagues back when nobody knew he would miss any time, so the news of him possibly returning in June shouldn't send you racing to the waiver wire unless you play in an especially deep league where anyone with 20-homer potential is must-own.
Ask yourself if Marlon Byrd is a big deal in your league and act accordingly.














