Week 12 Fantasy Hoops Planner
The Celtics are a roster-churning mess, but Chris Towers sees value in the rubble as he helps prioritize lineup choices and waivers for Week 12.
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The Celtics finally accepted their fate over the last few weeks. As much as Danny Ainge has wanted to avoid the "tanking" label, it was clear from the start of last season that the roster needed to be torn down. Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green are solid pieces on a contender, but you probably don't want to rebuild your organization around them as the foundation, and he has come to grips with that.
Ainge finally bit the bullet and moved on from the last remnants of the team's later-period glory days, moving Rondo to Dallas a few weeks ago and then Jeff Green to Memphis this weekend. The trade of Rondo already left a vacuum in Boston, and now they have to figure out how to play without Green, who has led the team in field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons.
It's going to be very interesting to see what the Celtics do in response to this flurry of moves, which also included shipping out little-used reserve center Brandan Wright, himself acquired in the Rondo deal. Coach Brad Stevens has the kind of offense that could produce plenty of Fantasy opportunities, as they rank 2nd in the league in pace and 1st in assist opportunities created per game, according to NBA.com's player tracking data. Unfortunately, this roster just may not be able to take advantage of these opportunities, this season, as CBSSports.com NBA writer Matt Moore noted Saturday evening:
Boston fans, I legitimately feel for you. You have this offense primed for passing and movement and quality shots and no personnel to run it. -- Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) January 11, 2015
In the Fantasy basketball world, we often overreact to changes in playing time and role, especially on bad teams. Fantasy value is derived from a combination of the individual player's skill, his fit on the team, and his opportunity to put up numbers, but these things aren't always easy to figure out. In the aftermath of the Rondo trade, I assumed highly regarded rookie Marcus Smart would step into a bigger role and become a Fantasy relevant option as a result, but that hasn't been the case. He's got the opportunity to do so, but his skills and fit on the team haven't quite caught up.
Looking at this Celtics' team, it's a bit tough to figure out just who is going to benefit from Green's departure. Evan Turner won out big following the Rondo trade, emerging as the De facto point guard, averaging 5.3 assists per game over the last 12. However, he has been a disaster pretty much everywhere else, shooting 39.1 percent from the field and hoisting up 110 shots for just 106 points. He's a worthy Fantasy pickup, as you'll see later, but I'm not sure how great you feel about starting him at this point.
Avery Bradley might be the biggest winner in Green's absence, as the only perimeter player with experience and a jump shot. He's not a great scorer and still struggles to create anything on his own for himself or others, but he did score 40 points in the first two games without Green, and should see plenty of shots. Even with just three games on the schedule, his shot volume should make him a solid starting Fantasy option for Week 12 and beyond.
Beyond those two, good luck figuring out who will benefit. There are going to be plenty of shots to go around, but the Celtics are kind of at the point a team like the Bucks was earlier in the season. I like some of their pieces individually, but a lot of them overlap, making it tough to go here for Fantasy value. Guys like Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller are probably worth owning, but their roles will likely change on a given night, depending on how Stevens is feeling.
The Celtics might have five or six players average between eight and 12 field goal attempts moving forward, at least in the immediate future. I still think Smart will find his way and become a solid Fantasy starter down the line, and it wouldn't surprise me if any of the team's young big men did the same. However, with just three games on the schedule, including a couple of tough matchups against the Hawks and Bulls, I'm steering clear for the time being.
Start ‘Em
Guards
Jodie Meeks, Pistons (19 percent started)
Meeks was
never going to be able to keep his hot shooting up, so consider these
last few games regression to the mean. Even if we count his current
4-for-20 shooting stretch, Meeks is averaging 14.0 points per game since
the Pistons waived Josh Smith, while
shooting 43.6 percent from the field and nailing 2.2 3-pointers per
game. He has taken on a big role in the offense, and there's no reason
to think that will change at this point. The Pistons have one of the
best schedules in the league on the way, with three bottom-10 defenses
lined up, so expect him to keep up his solid scoring. I would start
Meeks over… Jose Calderon, Dion Waiters, Nick Young
Tony Wroten, 76ers (68 percent started)
Wroten can be a
maddening player to rely on for Fantasy. Sure, he provides scoring and
passing in huge volume, averaging 18.2 points and 5.8 assists per game
over the last five. However, he can also singlehandedly kill you in
multiple categories, as he is shooting just 35.2 percent from the field
over that same span and has four-plus turnovers in 16 of 29 games on the
season. Still, the good outweighs the bad for the most part, and he's
been getting plenty of opportunities of late even with Michael Carter-Williams active. The 76ers have a solid schedule, with
four games on the way, so get Wroten in your lineup, especially in
eight-category leagues that don't penalize you for turnovers. I would
start Wroten over… Tony Parker,
Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight
Kirk Hinrich, Bulls (1 percent started)
You'll never be
happy about starting Kirk Hinrich, who
is owned in just seven percent of CBSSports.com leagues at this point.
However, with Derrick Rose dealing with
knee soreness in recent days, Hinrich could be a sneaky-good option in
Week 12 with the Bulls facing a pretty good schedule. Hinrich had 16
points, 2 3-pointers and three assists Saturday with Rose sitting out,
and could be a decent last-minute fill-in if you need one. Keep an eye
on Rose's status before making the call. I would start Hinrich over… Mario Chalmers, Marcus Smart, Gary Neal
Bust Alert
Kobe Bryant, Lakers (92 percent started)
Bryant has
wisely turned his eye toward playmaking lately, after hoisting up and
missing shots at a historic rate early in the season. He is averaging
just 14.4 points per game over the last five, but has chipped in 8.4
rebounds and 7.8 assists per game to make up for that. All in all, this
might be a boon to his Fantasy value, however it's very tough to rely on
him in Week 12 in spite of this. The Lakers have begun getting Bryant
more rest, especially on back-to-back sets, as he has played in just
five of the team's last 10 games. With the Lakers starting at a
Thursday-Friday back-to-back, Bryant essentially has just two games on
the schedule for Week 12. He's not doing enough to be started with two
games.
Forwards
Ryan Anderson, Pelicans (65 percent started)
Anderson is
a sharp-shooter, one of the best in the league, which makes his extended
slump since the start of the season perplexing. A 38.2 percent 3-point
shooter for his career, Anderson connected on just 34.0 and 32.4 percent
of his long-range attempts in November and December. The volume was
still there at 2.3 per game, but we know he can be capable of so much
more. In four January games he is starting to show that, nailing 10 of
21 attempts while averaging 15.5 points per game in four contests. The
Pelicans have the best schedule in the league on the way, with three
below-average 3-point defenses lined up. Expect the turnaround to
continue. I would start Anderson over… C.J. Miles, Robert Covington, Paul Pierce
DeMarre Carroll, Hawks (52 percent started)
DeMarre
Carroll is such a nice player to own in Fantasy. He'll rarely give you
huge numbers, but he's a rock-steady contributor who helps out a little
bit in every spot. He doesn't contribute much in terms of volume, but
that is OK when he is playing four times, as the Hawks do in Week 12.
Atlanta faces off against three bottom-10 defenses to open the season,
so expect more of the same from Carroll. I would start Carroll over… Thaddeus Young, Jeff Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo
JJ Hickson, Nuggets (12 percent started)
Hickson has
seen his role expand since the Timofey Mozgov
trade, averaging 28.3 minutes per game over the last three games. That's
not a terribly huge sample size, but I think it is sustainable based on
how foul-prone Jusuf Nurkic is and how
much Brian Shaw appears to trust Hickson. He has two double-doubles in
the last three games, averaging 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per in that
span, and has a nice week of matchups on the way in Week 12. The Nuggets
play just three times, but each once is against a bottom-10 defense,
which should work out well for Hickson. I would start Hickson over… Carmelo Anthony, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist,
Jeff Green
Bust Alert
J.R. Smith, Cavaliers (37 percent started)
Smith has
been trending upwards of late, and the trade to the Cavs didn't stop
that trajectory yet. He played 42 minutes in his second game with the
Cavs, scoring 27 points with three 3-pointers after barely making an
impact in his first game. The Cavaliers might need a lot from Smith with LeBron James out and Iman Shumpert
still recovering from a dislocated shoulder, but I wouldn't want to rely
on him in Week 12. The Cavs have some good matchups on the way, but play
just three times, including a back-to-back set against both Los Angeles
teams on the road. Smith is still finding his way in Cleveland -- though
he is thankful he has to do less thinking in this offense -- and I just
wouldn't feel good about relying on him. Especially with James' return
looming as a game-changer for the Cavaliers' rotation.
Center
Tyson Chandler, Mavericks (72 percent started)
Between
2012-13 and 2013-14, Chandler missed 43 games, while watching his
production fall off across the board. Given all that, it's hard to fault
the Knicks for getting out from under his contract this offseason, even
with how well he's played in Dallas. However, his return to form has
been a welcome one for Fantasy owners, as Chandler has been a model of
consistency this season while playing all but one game. Dallas has three
games on the way in Week 12, and he should be even better than usual
this week, with the Kings and Nuggets on the way. Only one team has been
blocked more often this season than the Kings and Nuggets, so Chandler
should get a nice boost in value there. Enjoy his continued revival. I
would start Chandler over… Roy Hibbert,
Marcin Gortat, Jordan Hill
Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors (58 percent started)
Valanciunas'
Fantasy owners would kill for the kind of consistency Chandler provides,
because there's no question of what Valanciunas can do when things are
going right. His interior defense has been a major problem for the
Raptors this season, but he has taken some solid steps on the other side
of the ball to make up for it, and his play is a big reason the Raptors
have one of the best offenses in the league. Valanciunas is averaging
14.4 points and 7.0 assists per game over the last five, while shooting
51.4 percent from the field, and he's doing that in just 25.5 minutes
per game. Sure, his inconsistency is frustrating, but you have to like
his chances in a week with four games on the schedule. Especially since
three of the four come against below-average defenses. I would start
Valanciunas over… Enes Kanter,
Zaza Pachulia, Tyler Zeller
Bust Alert
Jordan Hill, Lakers (58 percent started)
Hill had a
double-double last week, and has been seeing his production increase
over the last few games after cratering a few weeks back. Still, his
minutes have largely dissipated, as he has played 23 or fewer in four of
the last five games. He was a consistent double-double threat early in
the season, but the Lakers have moved away from him, limiting his
Fantasy value. Some weeks, like when the Lakers have four games on the
schedule, he can still be a useful option. However, with just three
games on the way, he's just not worth it.
Schedule preview
(A higher strength-of-schedule ranking is a good thing, based on points allowed)
Hawks: Four games, 2nd in strength of schedule
Celtics: Three games,
21st in strength of schedule
Nets: Four games, 28th in strength of
schedule
Hornets: Two games, 29th in strength of schedule
Bulls:
Four games, 14th in strength of schedule
Cavaliers: Three games, 4th
in strength of schedule
Mavericks: Three games, 3rd in strength of
schedule
Nuggets: Three games, 4th in strength of schedule
Pistons:
Four games, 6th in strength of schedule
Warriors: Four games, 22nd in
strength of schedule
Rockets: Four games, 17th in strength of schedule
Pacers:
Three games, 10th in strength of schedule
Clippers: Three games, 16th
in strength of schedule
Lakers: Three games, 27th in strength of
schedule
Grizzlies: Three games, 26th in strength of schedule
Heat:
Three games, 6th in strength of schedule
Bucks: One game, 29th in
strength of schedule
Timberwolves: Three games, 11th in strength of
schedule
Pelicans: Four games, 1st in strength of schedule
Knicks:
One game, 30th in strength of schedule
Thunder: Three games, 25th in
strength of schedule
Magic: Four games, 24th in strength of schedule
76ers:
Four games, 9th in strength of schedule
Suns: Two games, 15th in
strength of schedule
Trail Blazers: Three games, 19th in strength of
schedule
Kings: Three games, 12th in strength of schedule
Spurs:
Four games, 23rd in strength of schedule
Raptors: Four games, 8th in
strength of schedule
Jazz: Three games, 23rd in strength of schedule
Wizards:
Four games, 19th in strength of schedule
Waiver-wire
Add these players
Evan Turner, G, Celtics (76 percent owned), worth $5 FAAB bid
Turner
is one of those players you never feel great about having on your
Fantasy team. He gets the job done but is an inefficient scorer, and we
know he's not helping his team do much winning while he does it. Still,
for better or worse, he's the Celtics' best option at point guard, as
stated earlier, which makes him worth owning in whatever leagues he is
still available. I wouldn't put in a big FAAB bid on him, nor would I
use a high waiver priority to claim him because you probably won't be
kicking yourself if you missed out either way. He is lukewarm water;
it'll hydrate you, but you'll never let out a refreshing "Ah" after
either.
Hassan Whiteside, C, Heat (26 percent owned), worth $2 FAAB bid
The
Heat have been searching for a big man to put next to Chris Bosh for five years, and they just may have one in Whiteside.
Whiteside has played just 158 minutes for the Heat, so we're still
dealing with a tiny sample size, and he's fouling a ton, which limits
just how much he can play. Still, he is averaging 14.4 points, 13.4
rebounds and 4.8 blocks per-36 minutes overall, including 11.7 points,
8.0 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game over the last three. There are a
lot of good centers available on waivers these days, so Whiteside
shouldn't be a priority. However, if you miss out on the Nurkic's and
Gobert's of the world, Whiteside is a decent enough upside play.
Avery Bradley, G, Celtics (48 percent owned), worth $5 FAAB bid
As
mentioned earlier, Bradley should see a nice consistent boost in his
overall numbers in the aftermath of the Celtics' moves. I'm not a big
fan of Bradley's game, but he's skilled enough to take advantage of an
increased role, which should be enough to make him Fantasy relevant. He
takes too many long 2-pointers and can't dribble at all, but Bradley's
probably going to lead the Celtics in shots from this point on, and
might even luck into some assists as well. He doesn't get as many steals
or rebounds as you would want from someone with his athletic profile,
but there's value here, especially with how available he is.
Droppable players
Cole Aldrich, C, Knicks (52 percent owned)
Aldrich has
been forced into a bigger role than he's ever had in his career and has
become Fantasy relevant for the first time as a result. He's been one of
the most-added players in the league over the last few weeks, while
averaging 9.5points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.2 steals per game
over the last 10. If you want to hang on to him, that's totally fine,
even after a run of mediocre performances in recent weeks. If you've got
room on your roster and don't need him in Week 12, he makes for a fine
stash, given how banged up the Knicks are. However, if you really need
help this week, and have been counting on Aldrich as a starter, dump
him. Aldrich might be a better long-term option, but someone like
Whiteside makes more sense as a short-term fill-in for Week 12, with
Miami facing a favorable schedule.
Stoudemire was playing well this season, averaging 13.1 points per game while adding 7.4 rebounds, his best total since 2011-12. He was fairing well in the Triangle offense, and was even stepping it up on the defensive side of the court, averaging 1.8 blocks per game in 11 starts. However, as always, he just couldn't hold up to extended minutes. He averaged nearly 30 minutes per game as a starter, including three straight with at least 29 minutes played before his knee started swelling. Though coach Derek Fisher told the New York Daily News Sunday he thinks Stoudemire could begin practicing this week, it is clear they can't rely on him consistently. Stoudemire was playing well enough to start when he was healthy, but we know better than to expect that at this point.















