After being the biggest punchline in baseball for quite a while, the Pittsburgh Pirates are now coming off consecutive trips to the playoffs. The 2014 season marked a bit of a downturn, as they won six fewer regular-season games and then lost the wild-card game instead of falling in the NLDS, as they did in 2013. Gone is a key team leader, but back is pretty much everyone else of consequence -- and more. Let's take a look at the Pirates as they shoot for their third straight playoff appearance.
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Probable lineup
1. Josh Harrison, 3B
2. Gregory Polanco, RF
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF
4. Neil Walker, 2B
5. Starling Marte, LF
6. Pedro Alvarez, 1B
7. Jordy Mercer, SS
8. Francisco Cervelli, C
Bench: C Tony Sanchez, 1B Corey Hart, IF Jung Ho Kang, UT Sean Rodriguez, 1B/OF Andrew Lambo
Hart and Alvarez could platoon, but Pedro will surely be given every opportunity to start on a regular basis. Being that he's the lefty of the two, he would get more starts in a platoon anyway. Kang profiles as more of a second baseman down the road, per many scouts, but he could still have an impact at shortstop this season if Mercer falters.
The group as a whole ranked fourth in runs, third in average, second in on-base percentage and third in slugging percentage in the NL last season. Losing Russell Martin hurts, but there's expected improvement in several areas (Polanco, Alvarez), so we're still looking at a strong offensive ballclub.
Probable rotation
1. LHP Francisco Liriano
2. RHP Gerrit Cole
3. RHP A.J. Burnett
4. RHP Charlie Morton
5. RHP Vance Worley
Jeff Locke is, of course, also an option. Down the road, we could see top prospect Jameson Taillon, who missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. In 2013, he made 19 starts in Double-A and six in Triple-A, so he's headed to Triple-A to start this season and we'll see how he progresses.
Probable bullpen
Closer: RHP Mark Melancon
Setup men: LHP Tony Watson, RHP Jared Hughes
Middle men: RHP John Holdzkom, LHP Antonio Bastardo, RHP Radhames Liz
Long man: RHP Jeff Locke
A grounder-heavy group that can also miss bats, the Pirates bullpen will again be good.
Under-the-radar offseason transaction
The Pirates couldn't do much about losing Martin to free agency and had to replace him without spending much money. They did so with Francisco Cervelli (one-year deal worth a touch less than $1 million) and I really like this move.
First off, though injuries and being a backup have severely limited his playing time, the 29-year-old Cervelli is a career .278 hitter with a .348 on-base percentage. That's quality for a catcher, especially a defensive-minded one.
Speaking of which, after calling Cervelli a "stud" this past offseason, former teammate Brandon McCarthy sang the praises of Cervelli's game-calling ability behind the plate. He said as much to David Cameron of Fangraphs:
@DCameronFG he's someone that could really benefit from you guys coming up with a game calling metric
— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) November 13, 2014
There are metrics for pitch-framing and Cervelli ranks handsomely, having turned 56 balls into strikes last season in only 2,955 pitches received. Thus, he's among the best in baseball at framing.
The Pirates are still going to miss Martin in a big way, but Cervelli is a great option on the cheap to mitigate some of that damage to the ballclub.
Fantasy breakout: Gerrit Cole, SP
From Scott White's full fantasy preview:
The first overall pick in the 2011 draft, Cole's talent has never been in question, but when he averaged just 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a rookie in 2013 and followed it up with 6.9 per nine in five starts last April, some began to wonder if he was too comfortable pitching to contact to get the most out of his 97-mph fastball. But look where his strikeout rate ended up. In eight starts after returning from a right lat injury, the second of two lengthy DL stints, he averaged 10.3 strikeouts compared to just 1.9 walks per nine. That's domination by any standard and reason to believe Cole has turned the corner. The breakthrough came at a time, though, when it wouldn't leave a lasting imprint on the minds of Fantasy owners, and since it didn't entirely redeem his numbers, his final ERA and WHIP make him out to be more of a work in progress than he actually is. His ace potential comes with the price tag of a No. 3 starting pitcher.
Biggest strength
I like the offensive balance. This team has four players who should hit at least 20 homers and upwards of nine or 10 who could top 10 if given enough playing time. There are also four or five who will get to double digits in stolen bases. There are big-time power hitters, high-average guys, players who take lots of walks and at least one (MVP-caliber McCutchen) who does just about everything well.
So let's see ... they hit for average, get on base, hit for power and run well.
You won't find many more well-rounded offensive ballclubs in baseball.
Biggest weakness
I think there's enough reason for concern in the rotation to put it here. Ultimately I do think it will be fine, but Liriano will always be a question mark due to inconsistency and injury history. Cole is still only 24. Burnett was awful last season and he's 38 now. Morton, Worley and Locke are hardly sure bets, either.
The Pirates have had an uncanny ability to get the most out of pitchers (Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Worley, Locke, etc.) that other teams couldn't in the past few years, but it's always possible for the tide to turn.
Outlook
The NL Central is top-to-bottom strong, but the Pirates are in the upper part of it. Though it could be anyone, the safe bet to win the division is either St. Louis or Pittsburgh. I do think the Pirates are headed to the playoffs again and, in fact, I'll go a step further and say this is the year they take the division. Perhaps a trip to the NLCS for the first time since 1992? It's definitely possible.
Regardless, it is remarkable what a difference two years make, no?
Coming Tuesday: Previewing the Reds
