About 30 seconds after any NBA team wins the title, we immediately begin the discussion. Will they repeat? Threepeat? Quadpeat? Pentapete? We have a tendency to assume that whatever team just won the title will just carry on and head back to the Finals, like it wasn't difficult the first time. So with the Warriors having not only won the title, but winning 67 games and only losing five times total in the playoffs while finishing with a historic point differential, the question has to be asked.
Is this the start of some sort of dynasty?
Well, let's slow down for a minute. First there's the question of the repeat. And worse teams than the Warriors have repeated in the modern era. In the past fifteen years, the Lakers, Lakers again, and Heat have pulled it off. Still, the Spurs, Pistons, and Celtics have been unable to secure back-to-back titles. What's more, if the San Antonio Spurs can't pull it off, what are the odds the Warriors can?
Repeats are, generally speaking, very difficult. That's exacerbated by the high level of competition in the Western Conference, with up to four legitimate title contenders annually. Still, there's also reason to believe the Warriors might be a different breed of champion.
1. They don't suffer from age issues. Curry is only 27, Klay Thompson is only 25. The rest of their core is effectively young, with really only Andrew Bogut and Finals MVP Andre Iguodala up there in age, and their contracts don't expire for another season. Provided that ownership is willing to shell out as they have strongly indicated they plan to, the band will be kept together.
2. They are a perfect fit for the modern age. The Warriors aren't a relic trying to sustain with a delicate balance, like the Miami Heat with their smallball concoction around older players. They are a hyper-efficient, 3-point-shooting, fast-paced team with a dynamic superstar in his prime.
3. They will have flexibility to sustain. The Warriors can re-sign everyone and keep the band together in the short-term, and, should they win the title again next season, the cap goes up in 2016 just as big money comes off the books, freeing them to pursue upgrades to prolong and enhance their title contention window.
4. They are no cinderella. The Warriors were the best team from start to finish last season, with a historic point differential. They are built to compete year after year, and they can adapt their style to anyone they face, as they showed vs. Memphis, Houston, and Cleveland.
5. They have experience now. They know what it takes. Having that knowledge goes a long way, and guys can draw on the experiences of having been here to help them understand what it will take to beat opponents. If they go down 2-1 in a series, there will be no panic, because they're the champs, and they've been there before. Ask players who have won multiple titles. That experience matters.
Of course, there are also reasons to believe it's unlikely.
1. Injuries. The Warriors were unbelievably fortunate with their injury luck this season. They didn't suffer a single major injury outside of Mareese Speights' calf injury in the second round. Golden State had everything break their way and now have a huge amount of minutes and miles on their key players, most especially Bogut. Bogut may have been removed from the equation in the Finals, but he's still a huge part of their team. Can everyone stay healthy after all those seasons? There have been dropoffs after deep runs the year after, especially for guards like Steph Curry.
2. They weren't flawless. They did go down 2-1 to Memphis with an injured Mike Conley and then Tony Allen went out as well. They avoided the Spurs this year, which was out of their control, you play who's in front of you, but both San Antonio and the Clippers managed to fall before Golden State had to get past. Cleveland, without two of their stars, took a 2-1 series lead on the Warriors and really gave them a fight the whole way. The Warriors were a dominant regular season team and made adjustments to close out series hard. But they weren't without challenge.
3. The book will get out. There will be tactical adjustments. For as unguardable as Steph Curry may be, teams were able to neutralize him for long stretches. There will be more and more strategies cobbled together on how to beat the Warriors' style and it gets harder to adapt once that happens. The Warriors didn't come out of nowhere, but there are always counterbalances to new attacks and over time, they are refined. Just as the Warriors evolved, so does the league adapt to the Warriors.
Overall, Golden State has a better chance at repeating than San Antonio, Miami, or Dallas did, just due to age and roster status. The Warriors likely won't be Vegas' odds-on favorite for the title, that'll be Cleveland, but they will be right up there and don't be surprised if once again Oracle is hosting Game 1 of the 2016 Finals.
