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USATSI

I'm weird as an NFL Draft analyst in that I love pro comparisons. Adore them. Spend way too much time formulating them for prospects every draft season. 

Of course, comparisons are always "stylistic" and not solely based on things like height, weight, or college program. And because I take them seriously and do so many, many comparisons for prospects aren't exactly superstars at the NFL level. 

In general, though, the top prospects in every class are universally compared to established stars. But anyone following the draft, even on a casual level, knows that many first-round picks never reach star superstar status, and in fact, "bust."

With that thought in mind, let's compare the consensus top prospects in the 2022 class to former infamous draft busts. Hat tip to Purple Insider's Matthew Coller for this idea. 

(Vital disclaimer: these are not my legitimate comparisons for these prospects. It's just for fun.)

Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

Bust: Andre Wadsworth

  • Pick and year: No. 3 overall, 1998 draft (Cardinals)
  • College: Florida State

Wadsworth was a former walk-on at Florida State and gradually got better at the marquee program, which culminated with him winning ACC Defensive Player of the Year in his final season. Sound like anybody? In that senior campaign, Wadsworth had 16 sacks and 19 tackles for loss. 

During the draft process, Wadsworth was lauded by many, and some smart football minds even believed he was the second coming of Bruce Smith due to his natural talent, power, and work ethic.

At the combine, Wadsworth measured in just under 6-feet-4 and 278 pounds. Once he got to the league, Wadsworth's lack of elite explosiveness off the ball hurt his ability to consistently threaten quarterbacks. That could be a knock on Hutchinson's game, too. Nagging knee injuries hampered Wadsworth's next two seasons, leading to his release from Arizona. He would never play in the NFL again. 

Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux

Bust: Barkevious Mingo

  • Pick and year: No. 6 overall, 2013 draft (Browns)
  • College: LSU

Now, when it comes to hype as a recruit, Thibodeaux, of course, trumps Mingo. On the field, the two have similarities. Like Thibodeaux, the former LSU star was more burst/bend than pass-rush move master during his time in the SEC. His lack of developed plans en route to the quarterback didn't matter much, though, as he registered 15 sacks and 29 tackles for loss in his three seasons for the Tigers. 

He ultimately flopped in the NFL because he simply was never strong enough at the point of attack, and those pass-rush moves...they never materialized. If Thibodeaux busts, it'll likely be due to him leaning too much on his athletic gifts and not playing with enough power consistently. 

Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner

Bust: Dee Milliner

  • Pick and year: No. 9 overall, 2013 draft (Jets)

  • College: Alabama

Milliner was highly sought after in the 2013 draft because of his length and productivity at a successful, blue-chip program. He had five interceptions in his final two seasons for Nick Saban and stood 6-0 and 201 pounds with 32-inch arms. He ran 4.37 at the combine and had a three-cone under 7.00 seconds. The boxes appeared to be checked. 

But despite plenty of experience in Saban's man-heavy scheme, Milliner was not able to mirror quicker, more polished NFL receivers and was never given the luxury of having an elite pass rush in front of him like he had in college to consistently hurry throws from quarterbacks. 

Gardner is similar in that size, length, and physicality are his key traits. He was also very productive on a rising Cincinnati program. If he struggles in the NFL, it'll likely be due to him having issues staying in-phase with receivers running intricate, quick-breaking routes. 

Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton

Bust: Isaiah Simmons

  • Pick and year: No. 8 overall, 2020 draft (Cardinals)
  • College: Clemson

Yes, this is harsh on Simmons, as he's been in the NFL for two seasons. But the similarities were too striking to ignore. Simmons was a super-hyped, safety-linebacker hybrid who was a splash-play creator for Clemson in his final two seasons with the Tigers. At 6-4 and 238 pounds, he ran 4.39 and had a 39-inch vertical at the combine. 

Many believed he was going to be single player to usher in the "positionless" era on defense in the NFL. Through two seasons, that hasn't happened. Far from it. Simmons hasn't found a true home positionally, and hasn't been effective in a Swiss Army knife role. 

Liberty QB Malik Willis 

Bust: Akili Smith

  • Pick and year: No. 3 overall, 1999 draft (Bengals)
  • College: Oregon

Smith was an athletic, arm-talent quarterback who took off and ran often relative to how frequently many passers did in the pocket era. When kept clean, Smith threw with pinpoint ball placement. A contract holdout -- fortunately won't be an issue for Willis -- delayed his development. 

While there wasn't any one "thing" that detonated his NFL career, he seemed to never be able react to the heightened speed of the pro game and finished his career as a 46.6% passer with five touchdowns and 13 interceptions. If there's one reasonable element that could hold back Willis in the NFL, it's the difficult jump in competition in front of him after playing his college ball at Liberty.

Alabama OT Evan Neal 

Bust: Greg Robinson

  • Pick and year: No. 2 overall, 2014 draft (Rams)
  • College: Auburn

Robinson was an athletic marvel; at 6-5 and 332 pounds, he moved gracefully like an undersized, zone-blocking scheme center, often pulverizing SEC defenders for the Auburn ground game. And while Alabama has recently adopted much more of a pass-happy scheme than in the past, the Crimson Tide still brought it on the ground during Neal's career in Tuscaloosa. Many of Neal's highlights are on plays in which he moves his 337-pound body effortlessly to the second level before tossing a linebacker to pave a lane. 

Robinson played in 83 games in his NFL career. Not a colossal bust. His pass-protection capabilities never fully matched his run-blocking, and he wasn't quite as dominant in the latter phase of the game as he was in college. Neal's pass-pro film isn't quite as impressive as the damage he did for the ground game, especially in 2021. 

NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu

Bust: Jason Smith

  • Pick and year: No. 2 overall, 2009 draft (Rams)
  • College: Baylor

Smith was a compact, dancing bear at Baylor. As a converted tight end, his burst, mobility, and balance when finding contact down the line or at the second level made him an incredibly tantalizing prospect. 

Hailing from Art Briles' spread offense in Waco, Smith gave everything scouts wanted to see for the run game, but the pass-protection skills were relatively raw. While he never became a quality pass blocker in the NFL, concussions ultimately curtailed Smith's career. 

Ekwonu is much more dazzling on the move, using supreme natural torque-creating skills to move defenders all over the field. And he's certainly not bad as a pass protector. But the burst and agility are comparable to what Smith brought to the field in the NFL. 

Mississippi State OT Charles Cross 

Bust: Luke Joeckel

  • Pick and year: No. 2 overall, 2013 draft (Jaguars)
  • College: Texas A&M

Joeckel was considered one of the safest prospects in the 2013 class because of his ultra-clean film, even in pass protection, at Texas A&M. The smoothness in his feet, the balance, the calmness against blitzes, he was believed to have it all. The largest reason Joeckel flamed out of the NFL after five disappointing seasons? He didn't have the nastiness nor the power needed to survive at offensive tackle in the pros. Period. 

Cross glides in pass protection and checks all the athletic boxes to play on the edge in the NFL. For as much as I love Cross as a prospect, I would understand the question being raised about whether or not he has enough of a mean streak to get it done as a tackle in the NFL. 

Georgia EDGE Travon Walker

Bust: Vernon Gholston

  • Pick and year: No. 6 overall, 2008 draft (Jets)
  • College: Ohio State

Gholston was much shorter than Walker and didn't test as well in the agility drills as the Georgia star did at the combine a few weeks ago. There are parallels, though. Gholston rose from relative obscurity -- and I write "relative" because he was playing at Ohio State -- and emerged as a legitimate top-flight prospect in the 2008 class despite less-than top-flight production figures or refinement as a pass rusher. 

People got behind the idea of him as an athletic freak who had his best football in front of him. His chiseled frame and 4.65 40-yard dash at 266 pounds sealed the deal. Gholston's best football wasn't in front of him. He was stiff -- Walker isn't -- and wasn't quite sure how to use his hands to beat blockers. Walker has that problem, too.