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While I went .500 on my picks last week, it appears I am set to finish as CBS Sports' top NFL picker this year. Last week, we had the New England Patriots blowing out the New York Jets, the Philadelphia Eagles upsetting the Bills in Buffalo and the San Francisco 49ers cooling off Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. However, we were wrong to trust the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Thanks for following along all year, and I can honestly say this has been my favorite NFL season in quite some time. This playoff picture is wide open. There's no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and maybe Lamar Jackson. Can Josh Allen overcome the Bills' bad run defense ? We'll get to that next week. 

As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 44-40-1
Overall ATS record: 141-113-2
Straight up record: 173-82-1

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I feel like I've been a 49ers doubter for most of the year, but this offense has been playing like the best in the NFL recently. The last time the 49ers put up back-to-back 40-point games was in 1995. San Francisco has averaged an NFL-high 35.7 points per game during this six-game win streak, and everyone knows if the 49ers win, they will have home-field advantage through the Super Bowl. I think the Seahawks are a legitimate contender as well, but I can't get over the fact they needed a game-winning field goal to beat a grandpa. 

The pick: 49ers +1.5
Projected score: 49ers 30-27

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I made all my money earlier this year fading the Titans. Now, I'm backing them. You should know that the Titans have suddenly become one of the most entertaining teams in the NFL. Did you know they've scored at least 24 points in each of their last four games? On top of that, Tony Pollard has crossed 100 yards rushing in three of the last four and Chimere Dike is the best rookie returner in NFL history. I don't want to exaggerate, but Jeffery Simmons is kind of looking like Aaron Donald in the middle of this defense. Then Cam Ward, although inconsistent, has made some Patrick Mahomes-like plays and given you glimpses of why he was selected No. 1 overall in this past draft. 

It's true the Titans secondary is occupied by practice squad players, but 13.5 points is a lot. I'm not calling for an upset, but don't forget that this Jaguars team has lost to the Titans in a critical Week 18 spot before.

The pick: Titans +13.5
Projected score: Jaguars 26-20

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Here's an interesting pick for you. I bet most NFL bettors view Saints +3.5 as a great bet. I don't share those feelings. The Falcons are coming off a pretty surprising upset of the Los Angeles Rams, where Bijan Robinson racked up over 200 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. The defense also picked off Matthew Stafford three times. We all know that Tyler Shough has been impressive during this four-game win streak and has a legitimate chance to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Falcons defeated Shough in New Orleans by 14 points earlier this season. I like some of the young pieces on this Falcons defense. Give me the home team.

The pick: Falcons -3.5
Projected score: Falcons 27-21

NFL Week 18 picks: Our experts face off on Saints vs. Falcons, Ravens at Steelers and more
Jordan Dajani
NFL Week 18 picks: Our experts face off on Saints vs. Falcons, Ravens at Steelers and more

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Two eliminated teams are playing starters in this regular-season finale. The Giants are coming off an impressive win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the "No. 1 Overall Pick Bowl," but I'll remind you it was the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys have won nine straight over the Giants, and boast the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL with 274.0 yards per game. On the flip side, is Jaxson Dart going to be able to take advantage of a lackluster pass defense? He hasn't thrown a touchdown in two weeks. Take the better team in this matchup. 

The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Projected score: Cowboys 24-13

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Yes, the Bengals have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they've crushed their lesser opponents in recent weeks. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins in a 24-point victory, then dropped 37 points on the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. The main story in this matchup is Myles Garrett and the sack record. It honestly seemed like an inevitability over the past few weeks, but hasn't happened yet! I'll take the Bengals -7.5 in their final home game of the season. 

The pick: Bengals -7.5
Projected score: Bengals 28-17

Other Week 18 picks

Panthers (+3) 24-21 over Buccaneers
Texans (-10.5) 27-13 over Colts 
Vikings (-7.5) 20-10 over Packers
Bills (-6.5) 27-17 over Jets
Patriots 24-17 over Dolphins (+10.5)
Eagles 21-20 over Commanders (+4.5)
Broncos 24-14 over Chargers (+12.5)
Bears (-3) 27-21 over Lions
Rams (-7.5) 28-20 over Cardinals
Chiefs 14-13 over Raiders (+5.5)
Ravens 20-17 over Steelers (+3.5)