Third base is a fun position.
It's never lacking in star power, yet it's often lacking in depth, which makes it typically one of the greater differentiators in the standings.
And this year, that's especially true.
The top three tiers -- the ones you can actually feel good about in a standard mixed league -- are all between three and four players deep (omitting the one shortstop-eligible player), giving you probably just a two-round window to make a move before the next drop-off.
Those windows won't be one after another, of course -- there isn't as much overlap with these tiers as there is at second base -- but whenever a tier starts, you may have to be the second to draft from it, if not begin it yourself, when normally you could wait to be one of the last.
The Elite: Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado
The Near-Elite: Kris Bryant, Todd Frazier, Matt Carpenter
The Next-Best Things: Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager, Maikel Franco, Adrian Beltre, Jung Ho Kang
The Fallback Options: Mike Moustakas, Evan Longoria
The Last Resorts: Daniel Murphy, David Wright, Danny Valencia, Matt Duffy, Yangervis Solarte, Trevor Plouffe
The Leftovers: Justin Turner, Josh Harrison, Nick Castellanos, Hector Olivera, Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado, Pablo Sandoval, Brett Lawrie, Jed Lowrie, Yasmany Tomas, Chase Headley
Chances are The Elite will all go in the first round, so whether or not you get one of them depends mostly on where you draft. Third base had a revolution of sorts with the emergence of Machado and Arenado last year, and their continued development ensures that the position won't run short on studs in the near future.
Bryant has a say in that as well and almost certainly hasn't peaked yet, but whether you tier him with The Elite or The Near-Elite depends on how confident you are in him taking another step forward this year. Last year, he performed more on the level of Frazier and Carpenter, averaging fewer Head-to-Head points per game than both, so he hasn't gotten there yet. And counting on him to this year -- i.e., tiering him with The Elite -- likely makes him an early second-rounder, which would mean passing up assured greatness at some other position.
Sorry, not worth it.
The more debatable one for me is Carpenter, who certainly earned this designation last year, but by nearly tripling his career high in home runs. I'd say it was too good to be true, but all three of his seasons as a full-time starter have been so different that I still don't know what kind of hitter he is. I do know that two of the three versions of Carpenter were among the most productive third basemen in Fantasy, though, so I don't think assuming this fourth one will be is too much of a stretch. Maybe in a Rotisserie league, if you were feeling especially pessimistic, you could downgrade him a tier since his walks don't count for anything in that format.
Things get even fuzzier around the third tier, The Next-Best Things, where two of the four, Rendon and Franco, have arguably as much upside as The Near-Elite and a third, Beltre, shows up on my busts list. Remember, though, that tiers are a reflection of confidence level as much as anything. Rendon didn't live up to his potential during an injury-plagued 2015, calling into question his 2014 breakout, and Franco, who actually outperformed Bryant on a per-game basis last year, was a much bigger surprise in doing so and didn't have nearly as long as Bryant to regress to the mean. You can't trust them on the same level. Or at least I don't.
Assuming Kang is drafted as a shortstop (which he should be), Longoria figures to be the worst starting third baseman in a 12-team league, which doesn't sound so bad. And it's true that even with his demise the last two years, he's still a good bet for 20 homers and maybe a high RBI total. But these days, he has more in common with someone like Plouffe than, say, Arenado. The gap between the two in Head-to-Head points per game last year (which I cite to make easy comparisons, not because it's drastically different in Rotisserie) was bigger than the gap between Cameron Maybin and Mookie Betts.
So yeah, big disadvantage for the guy starting Longoria, which is why third base should be a top priority in Rounds 3-8 if you don't luck into one of The Elite in Round 1. If you do get burned over and over again, though, and have to settle for somebody marginal like Moustakas or Longoria, one way to potentially close the gap is to pair him with the right sleeper in the last round or two. My personal favorite at the position is Valencia, who performed about like Bryant after joining up with the Athletics last season, but Wright and Olivera could surprise as well.
