Two different, destructive transition attacks may decide Warriors-Thunder
The way the Warriors and Thunder try to beat you with transition has the same result, but a very different process.
The Golden State Warriors and the Oklahoma City Thunder have the two best offenses in the NBA. The Thunder clock in at a 109.9 offensive efficiency. Most years, that would lead the NBA in offensive rating, but the Warriors are breaking all the standards and rules this season. Their offensive rating of 112.7 effectively dwarfs the Thunder's rating, which has only been surpassed three other times in the last five years.
There are many ways in which these two teams put up efficient, back-breaking runs that help lead to their impressive offensive numbers, but one of the most demoralizing can be the transition opportunities that overwhelm you after your own misfires. The Warriors and Thunder are two of the six teams that spend the highest percentage of their offensive possessions in transition. OKC is sixth in transition opportunities; Golden State is second.
It's not just that they end up in a lot of transition situations; it's that they destroy you when they're in them and do it in very different ways. The Thunder use transition opportunities and fast break buckets like a battering ram. They're breaking down doors and destroying load-bearing walls. They want to fully demolish your home. The Warriors use transition opportunities like Jigsaw in the Saw franchise -- putting you through excruciating pain and trying to mentally break your will in a slow, psychological dismantling.
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are monsters in transition. Nobody has more transition possessions in the NBA than Westbrook. He leads James Harden (second) by 17 possessions and is 17th in points per possession (1.168 PPP) efficiency in transition opportunities. He gets to the free throw line on 22 percent of his transition possessions because so often there's nothing the defender can do in that blink of an eye than just try to wrap him up.
58 players in the NBA have scored more fast break points this season than Westbrook has Stemming from transition opportunities, Westrbook has scored more points in free throws alone than all but 58 players have scored total. He's made 105 free throws this season just from being fouled on the break. He's hit a few 3-pointers in transition, but the majority of his buckets on the break come from relentlessly trying to tear the rim down. He's so good at leaking out -- maybe even sometimes to the detriment of his team's half-court defense -- that any stop can immediately become a score in a couple of seconds.
Durant, meanwhile, is the most efficient transition player in the NBA for any player with at least 125 transition possessions (51 players total). He scores a ridiculous 1.299 points per possession. He doesn't get to the free throw line quite as much as his teammate does, but he provides more of a balance to the scoring around the perimeter in transition, which in turn helps open things up for Westbrook to run the floor and force the defense into an impossible decision of conceding a Westbrook attempt at the rim or a Durant jumper from anywhere.
You can see the comparison of their makes in transition here:
The Warriors, on the other hand, are more diabolical. Their transition offense is a final boss in a video game you have to watch a YouTube walk-through just to figure out how to solve. The problem ends up being the only real "victory" you have in these situations as a defense results in having them go for a layup or dunk instead of ripping your heart out with a 3-pointer. The way they attack you is far more spread-out than the Thunder's attack. It's a different type of overwhelming.
Klay Thompson may be that happy medium between what Westbrook and Durant do to opponents and the eventual Stephen Curry attack we'll get to. Thompson (fifth most efficient at 1.269 PPP) almost seems to have a perfect blend between attacking the basket and spotting up from deep. Because the Warriors leave you second-guessing yourself constantly, every shot in transition ends up being possible. Disadvantaged transition defenses are rarely able to recover quickly enough to make a good contest -- instead leaving it up to the not-very-good chance that eventually the Warriors have to miss or make a mistake.
It's in those instances that Klay is able to drive in for quick layups, which only sucks the defense in for next time to leave open the perimeter. For years, players are taught to retreat in transition into the paint and then find a man, but the Warriors make that basic strategy look as archaic as peach baskets. Because Curry commands so much attention and the team is so unselfish with their passing, Thompson finds himself with the easiest of transition opportunities. He turns the ball over just 8.8 percent of the time in transition, which is sixth lowest of those 51 players with 125 transition possessions or more.
It's Steph Curry where the insanity starts to set in. He's pretty much the perfect weapon. Remember how only 58 players in the league have scored more fast break points than Westbrook has fast-break-induced free throws? Well, if you only count the 3-pointers Curry has made in transition, still only 14 players would rank ahead of him in total transition points. Overall, he's second in fast break points (behind Westbrook) and eighth in transition efficiency (1.253 PPP).
It's not just the 3-pointers from him, although they certainly help. He's one of the better finishers in transition at the rim and has done a spectacular job of forcing that impossible decision between giving up a layup and letting him shoot a 3-pointer. I'd argue you should always force him toward the hoop and just hope he doesn't get fouled.
When these two teams face off against each other, the easy points from these transition runs can swing the game. In their incredible matchup three weeks ago, the two teams combined for 47 points, splitting them as even as can be (Warriors 24, Thunder 23). Both teams thrive in turning misses and mistakes into quick points the other way. Both teams will try to destroy the other with these opportunities throughout the night.
The only difference is the way they go about it. The Thunder are looking to batter you. The Warriors are looking to plant an explosive device inside your brain. And the winner of the transition game will have dictated the tempo and style of play to their liking. The fireworks should be spectacular.
