Colts predictions: Final record, playoff odds from our computers, experts, Vegas

Andrew Luck is on the PUP list and there's concern he won't be ready to start the season. Could his absence derail another season in Indy, where the Colts haven't been back to the playoffs since the infamous Deflategate game? 

Here's what our projections say.

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SportsLine

Projected wins In playoffs Win division Conference Super Bowl
7.731.0% 24.2% 1.3% 0.5%

SportsLine projects the Colts to finish around 8-8 if they can get a full season out of Andrew Luck, but this team (like many others) could fall apart quickly without its quarterback. There's isn't really a standout AFC South team, so a healthy season from Luck could give them a great shot at beating playoff expectations.

Vegas

Win totalPlayoffsDivisionConferenceSuper Bowl
8.5 (U -150)2/1+32525/150/1

All odds via Westgate.

Bettors are shying away from the Colts Over with the uncertainty surrounding Luck, and if any positive news comes out about the quarterback's timetable, early movers on the Over will reap the potential benefits.

Experts

Jared Dubin defends his 8-8 prediction:

Well, I sent this prediction in before it seemed like Luck might open the season on the PUP list. If he misses the first six games, then yeah, 6-10 sounds about right.

But if he's active to start the year, I suspect he's worth at least two wins in that period, if not more. The last time he was healthy, the Colts went 11-5 three years in a row. He's really, really good. Indy went 8-8 last season while he played through injuries and they had a defense that finished 30th in yards allowed, 22nd in points allowed, and 29th in DVOA. Chris Ballard spent a whole bunch of money and a lot of his draft capital upgrading that defense this offseason, and I firmly expect it to be better.

I'm actually surprised nobody was more aggressive than 8-8 on the Colts. I didn't expect to be put in the position of defending a .500 prediction.

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