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Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers suffered their first loss of the season last week, losing at home 26-7 to the Denver Broncos. The Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off an impressive 15-12 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Philadelphia is 8-1 in its last nine games played in September, but the Bucs have won five of the past six meetings between these teams. 

Kickoff in Tampa, Florida is at 1 p.m. ET. The Eagles are favored by 1 point in the latest Buccaneers vs. Eagles odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 42 points. Before locking in any Eagles vs. Buccaneers picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the proven computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Eagles vs. Buccaneers and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under in this game:

  • Buccaneers vs. Eagles spread: Eagles -1
  • Buccaneers vs. Eagles over/under: 42 points
  • Buccaneers vs. Eagles money line: Eagles -115, Bucs -104
  • Buccaneers vs. Eagles picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Eagles can cover

The Eagles enter Sunday's showdown averaging 411.7 yards per game on offense, which ranks second in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley has been sensational for the Eagles this season, recording 63 carries for 351 yards and four touchdowns. He's also hauled 10 of his 11 targets for 53 yards and a score. In last week's win over New Orleans, Barkley rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries. 

Hurts is completing 70.6% of his passes this season and he's completed more than 76% of his passes in each of his last two starts. Last week, Hurts completed 76.3% of his passes for 311 yards. He's also been effective with his legs, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Defensively, the Eagles are giving up 21.0 points per game. See which team to pick here.

Why the Buccaneers can cover

The Buccaneers suffered a massive upset loss in Week 3 at the hands of the Denver Broncos. The Bucs will be at home again for this game, in what is shaping up to be a nice bounce-back spot for Todd Bowles' team. Home underdogs have fared well in the NFL thus far, and Tampa Bay will be getting points in this spot. 

Outside of the loss to Denver, Baker Mayfield had been playing the best football of his career. Through three games, Mayfield has thrown for 637 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions, and he's rushed for 55 yards and a score. Tampa Bay could get a huge boost with defensive tackle Vita Vea trending towards playing in Week 4. See which team to pick here.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Eagles picks

The model has simulated Buccaneers vs. Eagles 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Eagles in Week 4, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Eagles vs. Buccaneers spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.