NFL odds, picks Week 12: Advanced computer model loves Eagles and Seahawks
Our computer model simulated every Week 12 NFL game 10,000 times with very surprising results
The NFL's 12th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The New England Patriots are massive 17-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills, and the Los Angeles Rams are a 2.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints in a game with big postseason implications that has already seen plenty of line movement.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking. SportsLine's Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season -- better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch -- every single one.
SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.
It's fresh off a week in which it went 10-4 on straight-up picks, improving its record to a blistering 20-8 over the past two weeks. Last week, it nailed the Patriots' (-7) win and cover against the Raiders in Mexico City and was all over Philadelphia's road victory in Dallas.
With Week 12 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
One team SportsLine's proven model is again all-in on: the Philadelphia Eagles, who are massive 13.5-point favorites at home against the Chicago Bears. The model likes the Eagles to win by a final of 32-13 that will easily cover the spread
Philadelphia is among the Vegas favorites to win it all this year, and it continues to roll through the competition. They've won eight straight, and five of those victories have been by double-digits. Their average margin of victory has jumped to 26.3 over the last three weeks.
The Bears, meanwhile, are the losers of three straight and will be without linebacker Leonard Floyd on Sunday.
SportsLine's computer says Philly wins this game straight-up in a whopping 90 percent of simulations and covers the spread 60 percent of the time. Lock in a pick for Philadelphia in this one with a high degree of confidence.
Another team the model loves: the Seattle Seahawks, who are 6.5-point road favorites at the 49ers. It says Seattle wins by nine, 25-16, covering the spread with room to spare. Seattle is winning straight-up 71 percent of the time. Back the Under (45) in this game as well.
Seattle has won three straight road games, including an impressive 16-10 win over the division-leading Rams. QB Russell Wilson has thrown for multiple touchdowns the last five games and rushed for 86 yards and a score last week against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. He's had 22 rushing attempts the last three games.
One surprise: the Tennessee Titans, three-point favorites at Indianapolis, barely survive and come away with a one-point win, 24-23. The Titans beat the Colts on Monday Night Football by 14 in Week 6, but the model says the Colts cover the spread 57 percent of the time on Sunday and win outright in almost 50 percent of simulations.
Titans WR Rishard Matthews (hamstring) is questionable. He leads the team in receiving yards (626) and touchdowns (three).
The model also is calling for one of the league's hottest teams, a squad with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, to experience a crushing loss this Sunday. Find out who it is over at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Rams-Saints game you should be all over, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 38)
Carolina Panthers at N.Y. Jets (+5.5, 40.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17, 48)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 46.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 47.5)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 46)
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 44)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5, 45)
New Orleans Saints at L.A. Rams (-2.5, 53.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, 38)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-4, 42.5)
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 38)
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