Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers - NFL 2025
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The 2025 NFL playoffs are finally here, and Wild Card Weekend is just a few days away. We've been breaking down the matchups for a few days now, so there is some room to make some educated guesses about what might happen.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas, and specifically at DraftKings, already know what they expect to happen, which is why they've had the point spreads out ever since the matchups became finalized. But of course, we know that things always don't go as expected. There are usually a handful of upsets throughout the playoffs, and the first round is no different. 

With that in mind, we wanted to take a quick snapshot of the opening round from the perspective of which teams are most likely to defy expectations and come away with an upset victory. In the space below, we'll rank them from 1 through 6, in order of likelihood.

Wild Card Weekend NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Packers (+1.5) at Bears

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime

Note: The odds for this game have now flipped and the Packers are favored.

The two games the Packers and Bears played this year were decided by a total of 13 points, with each team winning by a touchdown at home. These are two incredibly evenly matched teams that each have advantages on one side of the ball or the other. If the Packers can avoid turning it over against Chicago (they had one turnover in each game in December), they have a pretty good shot to pull out the upset on the road.

2. Steelers (+3) vs. Texans

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Pittsburgh is playing this game at home, on Monday night, and the Steelers have traditionally been excellent in night-time island games during the Mike Tomlin era. The Texans have a ferocious defense that should be able to hold Pittsburgh in check even with DK Metcalf back in the lineup, but it's not like their offense is a machine that will be able to put up points with ease against the Steelers. Plus, Pittsburgh just seems to have voodoo magic that helps it win these kinds of games where nobody expects the Steelers to prevail.

3. Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Jaguars are home underdogs against Josh Allen and Co. despite the fact that they are playing as well as any team in the league over the latter portion of the season. Jacksonville has won eight games in a row to lead from 5-4 to the No. 3 seed in the conference, and Trevor Lawrence has finally taken the step forward that so many have wanted him to for years.

Josh Allen's golden ticket: The AFC finally opens, and history is waiting
Douglas Clawson
Josh Allen's golden ticket: The AFC finally opens, and history is waiting

The Bills have a suspect run defense that could allow Jacksonville to get the ball moving downhill and keep it out of Allen's hands if Travis Etienne can have one of his better games.

4. Chargers (+3.5) at Patriots

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC

The Patriots have played just three games against winning teams this season, and they took losses in two of them. (Against the Steelers and Bills.) The Chargers have a suspect offensive line and can be inconsistent on offense, but their defense is one of the best in the NFL and may be able to slow down Drake Maye and Co. on the other side of the ball. If they can turn this into a low-scoring affair, they have a chance to pull off an upset. If the Pats get rolling offensively, though, they may find it tough to keep up.

5. 49ers (+4.5) at Eagles

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

San Francisco has an explosive offense, but it was just held to only three points by the Seahawks in the regular season finale. The Niners are banged up basically everywhere on both offense and defense. We don't yet know if Trent Williams and/or Ricky Pearsall will play in this game. The defense is decimated due to injury with not just Nick Bosa and Fred Warner out, but also players like Mykel Williams and now Tatum Bethune, among others. The Eagles are inconsistent enough offensively that San Francisco can still pull off the upset victory on the road, though -- especially if Williams and Pearsall are back in the lineup.

6. Panthers (+10) vs. Rams

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Carolina has already pulled off an upset victory over the Rams once this season, so it's tough to place the Panthers down here on the list. But there's a reason L.A. is favored by 10 points on the road: the Rams are a much better team than are the Panthers, who went just 8-9 this year and needed a ton of help to even get into the postseason. If Bryce Young plays like he did in the first game against the Rams, and if Matthew Stafford turns it over three times again, then the Panthers have a shot; but it's tough to see things playing out exactly that way again.