Patriots vs. Jets odds, line: 2019 NFL picks, Week 3 predictions from advanced computer model

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are set to host the New York Jets in an AFC East battle on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. New York has struggled mightily in its first two games, blowing a 16-3 lead against the Bills in Week 1 and then getting dismantled 23-3 by the Browns on Monday night. The Patriots, meanwhile, have covered both games this season and scored over 30 points each time. And despite releasing Antonio Brown after just one game with the team, New England remains a massive favorite against the Jets on Sunday. In fact, the Patriots are favored by 21.5-points in the latest Jets vs. Patriots odds, while the Over-Under is 43.5. Before you make any Jets vs. Patriots picks and NFL predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run. It's also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2. The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Patriots vs. Jets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The model knows New England features one of the most explosive offenses in the league with Brady, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Sony Michel. However, it's been New England's defense that has been making a ton of noise thus far this season. In fact, the Patriots' defense ranks first in total defense (246.0), first in points per game allowed (1.5) and second in rushing yards per game allowed (37). 

The Patriots have also had a ton of success against AFC East opponents in recent years. New England has won eight of its last nine games against a divisional opponent and is 7-2 against the spread during that span. 

The Jets, meanwhile, saw their quarterback situation get even worse when Trevor Siemian, already filling in for Sam Darnold (mononucleosis), hurt his ankle against the Browns. This week, New York will turn to Luke Falk, who finished with 198 yards on 20 completions last week against Cleveland. Falk threw 119 touchdowns at Washington State and recorded at least 30 touchdown passes in his final three seasons as a Cougar. 

New England's offense ranks second in the league in points per game, averaging 38 points per contest so far this season. Plus, the Patriots have been unbeatable at Gillette Stadium over the years, going 17-0 in their last 17 games at home. As for New York, the Jets enter Sunday's matchup allowing opponents an average of 20 points per game. 

So who wins Patriots vs. Jets? And which side of the spread is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Jets spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

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