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The New Orleans Saints (2-1) and Atlanta Falcons (1-2) will meet in an important early-season NFC South battle on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans is coming off its first loss of the campaign, falling to Philadelphia in a 15-12 final at home last week. Atlanta is hoping to bounce back as well after falling to Kansas City by five points in primetime on Sunday Night Football. This is the second game of a three-game homestand for the Falcons, while the Saints are opening a two-game road trip. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons are favored by 2.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Saints odds, while the over/under is 41.5 points via SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Saints vs. Falcons picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on New Orleans vs. Atlanta. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

  • Falcons vs. Saints spread: Falcons -2.5
  • Falcons vs. Saints over/under: 41.5 points
  • Falcons vs. Saints money line: Falcons -143, Saints +122
  • Falcons vs. Saints picks: See picks here

Why the Falcons can cover

Atlanta is at home for the third time in its first four games, while New Orleans is on the road for the second time in three weeks. The Falcons took down Philadelphia two weeks ago with a game-winning touchdown drive engineered by quarterback Kirk Cousins, and he was close to pulling off another such drive last week against Kansas City. Cousins has thrown for 626 yards and four touchdowns through his first three games of the season, completing 66.7% of his passes. 

Wide receiver Drake London became the fastest player in Falcons history to reach 150 career receptions after catching six passes against the Chiefs. New Orleans is coming off its first loss of the campaign, as its offense went quiet in a 15-12 setback against the Eagles. The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last six games against the Saints, including a 24-15 win at home last season. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans is coming off a disappointing loss to Philadelphia last week, but it enters Week 4 with the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.3 points per game. Saints quarterback Derek Carr has 585 passing yards and six touchdowns, completing 68.8% of his passes. Star running back Alvin Kamara is off to a fantastic start this season, racking up 285 rushing yards, 132 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. 

The Saints blew out the Panthers and Cowboys by a combined score of 91-29, and both of those teams are coming off wins. New Orleans cruised to a 48-17 win over Atlanta in the final meeting between these teams last season, giving the Saints seven wins in their last 10 matchups. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games, while the Falcons have only covered once in their last five outings. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Falcons vs. Saints picks

The model has simulated Saints vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Atlanta vs. New Orleans on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Saints vs. Falcons spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-130 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.