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White: Sleepers
2.0 | Breakouts
2.0 | Busts
2.0
Melchior: Sleepers
2.0 | Breakouts
2.0 | Busts
2.0
You may have noticed we've been giving some of our early spring training columns a freshening up, but revisiting our breakouts lists is a different type of exercise. Sleepers can easily lose their appeal if they become too trendy, and similarly, bust warnings become less necessary when owners are showing hesitance to draft the players in question. A player's breakout potential doesn't change with the whims of Fantasy owners. If a player looks like a decent bet to break out (i.e., has strong skill indicators and/or a chance for increased playing time), our opinions won't impact that. Unless you or I happen to be a major league manager making playing time decisions, that is.
I, for one, have yet to gain employment as a skipper of a big league team, so I don't see any reason to remove any players from my original list of 12. The two close calls are Dustin Ackley and Allen Webster. Ackley could enter into a left field platoon with Rickie Weeks, and that could certainly put a damper on his value. However, Ackley hasn't been a substantially worse hitter against lefties over his career, and if he improves as much as I expect, he could force the Mariners to find other ways to get Weeks playing time. With a 7.71 Cactus League ERA, Webster hasn't separated himself from a crowded field of contenders for the final two spots in the Diamondbacks' rotation, at least not in a good way. As I explain below, though, I still see reasons to take a late-round flier on him in deeper leagues.
While there aren't any subtractions from my initial list of breakouts, published back in February, I did see fit to add a couple of names. While Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon may be taking plate appearances away from Ackley, he is planning on giving more to catcher Mike Zunino. That enhances the 24-year-old's breakout potential, thus earning him a spot on this expanded list. Though Orioles closer Zach Britton is already in his peak years, I've also come to appreciate the untapped upside he still presents, so he merits inclusion here as well.
The Newcomers
Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 22)
With McClendon vowing to play Zunino in at least 140 games this season, he will get a bump in value from the 40-plus additional plate appearances he could receive. Even without the heavier workload, Zunino had some breakout potential heading into this season. Last year represented a breakout of sorts, as Zunino increased his Isolated Power from .116 to .205, but an abysmal 0.11 walk-to-strikeout ratio limited his value. He was far more selective in his rookie season and even choosier in his early minor league career. Zunino will probably pop out too often to be a true contributor to batting average, but he could improve greatly if he can rediscover his plate discipline.
Zach Britton, RP, Orioles (Roto: Rd. 10, H2H: Rd. 9)
Even though he didn't get his first save until May 15, Britton finished his first season as the Orioles' closer with 37 saves. A 50-save pace will be hard to match, as will a 1.65 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, but Britton could actually gain value this season. Not only will he get the opportunity to provide closer stats for a full season, but he also could greatly improve on the relatively modest total of 62 strikeouts he posted in 2014. It's not as if Britton doesn't have swing- and-miss stuff; his sinker maxed out at 99 mph last season (according to BrooksBaseball.net) and he induced whiffs at a 14 percent rate. A decrease in called strike and foul ball rates aided in lowering his K-rate. As a ground ball pitcher, Britton may never get many foul balls, but he has shown during his tenure as a starter that he is capable of getting more called strikes.
Part of Britton's success a year ago rested on a .132 batting average on grounders that he will be unlikely to equal, but that could be offset by an increase in strikeouts. Those strikeouts will also add to his Fantasy value, particularly in Roto formats, and he has the skills to post another sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP season.
The Holdovers
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants (Roto: Rd. 16, H2H: Rd. 19)
Belt has had a funny career so far. He didn't get too well acquainted with any of the Giants' minor league affiliates, blazing his way from Advanced Class A to Triple-A in the space of one season. At each stop, Belt hit for power, walked often and got on base near or above a .400 rate. Aside from 13 games at Triple-A, he also hit for average. After four seasons in the majors, we are still waiting for Belt to do all of those things at the same time. Last season looked like an opportune time for Belt to break out, as he had hit for .289 the year before, and his 39 doubles seemingly foreshadowed the imminent onset of 25-homer power. Because Belt was limited to 61 games due to a broken thumb and a concussion, we will never know what he could have done with better health last season, but struggles with contact limited him to a .243 batting average. He did hit 12 home runs in that limited time, so now this year, he will need the batting average and on-base percentage to catch up with the power. He has been around for awhile, but with his 27th birthday arriving in April, Belt is still young enough to pull off a breakout.
Marcus Semien, 2B/3B, Athletics (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 23)
Based solely on what he has done in the minors, it's hard not to get excited about Semien now that he is in line to be the Athletics' starting shortstop in his first season in Oakland. His power didn't erode as he climbed the ladder of the White Sox's minor league system, and he made contact and walked plenty. Semien hadn't been an especially prolific base stealer, but he was thrown out only seven times in 38 attempts over the last two minor league seasons. In parts of two seasons with the White Sox, Semien's numbers paled in comparison with those he posted in the minors, and difficulties with making contact were at the root of those shortfalls. During last season's September callup, Semien showed signs of turning things around; he struck out 13 times in 66 at-bats, which helped him to bat .273 with three homers over that stretch. His body of work as a prospect suggests he could maintain that pace for a full season. Even with a .250 average, Semien would produce a decent return on a middle-round pick, assuming his power and speed hold up.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Brewers (Roto: Rd. 22, H2H: Rd. 26)
When Gennett batted .324 in his rookie season, one that encompassed just 69 games, I wrote him off as a complete fluke who was getting by with an unrepeatable 30 percent line drive rate. So, of course, Gennett hit line drives on slightly more than 30 percent of his hit balls last season. Now we know that he is not only very good at hitting liners but also hitting them to the opposite field. He frequently made hard contact, so already Gennett is Matt Carpenter's less patient doppleganger. With Rickie Weeks out of the picture, Gennett should play close to every day, and just maybe he can channel some of that doubles power into a few more home runs. If nothing else, Gennett could drive his batting average back above .300 and produce roughly 70 runs and 70 RBI.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (Roto: Rd. 4, H2H: Rd. 4)
Arenado looks almost too obvious as a breakout pick because he already took his contact and power hitting to another level last season, but his overall production was dampened by time missed with a broken finger. Not only should a healthy Arenado produce better counting stats, but his rate stats could improve as well. It's conceivable, based on his minor league numbers that Arenado could pare down his already slim strikeout rate and walk a little more often. Entering his age-24 season, it would seem Arenado has some power potential to fulfill, particularly away from Coors Field. We know Arenado can crank balls through the thin air of Denver, but he hit only two home runs on the road last season. Even with modest improvement, Arenado would clearly belong among the top five third basemen in Fantasy.
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves (Roto: Rd. 27, H2H: Rd. 23)
A year ago, Simmons looked like a strong breakout candidate, coming off a 2013 season that was as surprising for its 17-homer power as it was for its .248 batting average. Instead of combining his newfound power with a heightened batting average, Simmons performed more like a recluse than a breakout, batting .244 with seven home runs. In hindsight, expecting a breakout from Simmons in his second full season when he played just 44 minor league games above Advanced Class A was a little aggressive. He's still only 25, and while it didn't show in his home run total, Simmons did hit flyballs for greater distance last season. He is also still a great contact hitter who just needs to hit grounders with the same authority he hits flies. Given how shallow the shortstop position is, Simmons makes for a nice fallback option.
Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox (Roto: Rd. 15, H2H: Rd. 17)
Signs of a breakout can come when you least expect it. Garcia wasn't even supposed to play again last season after he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in April, but when he returned in August, he hit with home run power he had yet to show at the major league level. Scouting reports had long lauded his power potential, but even in the minors, Garcia was more of a singles hitter. He still doesn't hit many flyballs, but the ones he gets ahold of can go for great distances. Do the five homers he hit in 38 games down the stretch portend for bigger, better, more powerful things? As with any breakout candidate, we can't know for sure, but especially if he raises his flyball rate a tick, Garcia could see an explosive growth in his homer total. That's a nice add-on for a player who already has the ability to bat .280 or higher.
Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins (Roto: Rd. 19, H2H: Rd. 21)
Plenty of Fantasy owners noticed the power display Arcia put on in the second half, bashing 15 home runs in 57 games. Given that he had a wrist injury in the first half, it's conceivable that he could have hit at least 30 homers over the full season had he been healthy. With two seasons' worth of high strikeout and low walk rates in the books, Arcia's upside would appear to be limited to that of a one-dimensional slugger, but his minor league stats suggest maybe not. Arcia had substantially better strikeout and walk rates across the top three rungs of the Twins' minor league system in 2012 and 2013. Though Arcia has had far more problems making contact in the majors, he's not so far removed from his prospect days that improvement seems implausible. Even with a low batting average, Arcia is worthy of late-round consideration in standard mixed leagues, but with more patience and more reliable contact, he could be a legitimate middle-rounder.
Dustin Ackley, OF, Mariners (Roto: Rd. 31, H2H: Rd. 29)
After hitting just four home runs in 2013, Ackley rebounded nicely with 14 home runs last season, but that still doesn't cut it in standard mixed leagues now that he has lost second base eligibility. It's a start, though, as Ackley abandoned the extreme opposite field approach he employed the previous season. During the second half of last season, he also started hitting flyballs more often, which had something to with him hitting 10 of his 14 homers in 58 games after the All-Star break. If he continues to pull the ball more often and hit flies on close to 40 percent of his hit balls, a total of 20-to-25 homers over a full season looks realistic.
That scenario only seems plausible as long as a platoon with Weeks doesn't cut too much into his playing time, but as I mentioned above, a breakout performance could force McClendon to reconsider his plans. If Ackley can maintain the bulk of the playing time in left field, you could be looking at a top 50 outfielder.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles (Roto: Rd. 21, H2H: Rd. 18)
Gausman fits the typical profile of a breakout candidate in that he has shown a variety of different skills at different times, but he actually started to put them together at the end of last season. In his first year with the Orioles, spent mostly in the bullpen, Gausman showed he could throw strikes and miss bats, but a propensity to allow extra-base hits shot his ERA up to 5.66. Then last season, Gausman started getting more grounders, but while he held hitters to a .356 slugging percentage through his first 13 starts, his control was out of whack (59 percent strikes thrown, 3.6 BB/9). In his final seven starts, though, Gausman put it all together, pitching with pristine control and limiting hard contact. That, in fact, may have been the start of the breakout, but being able to sustain that over a full season would take him to another level.
Drew Hutchison, SP, Blue Jays (Roto: Rd. 18, H2H: Rd. 16)
Rogers Centre and strong flyball tendencies are a bad combination for a pitcher, and that's precisely what Hutchison had to contend with last season. Opponents launched 11 home runs off Hutchison in 70 1/3 home innings, but there's hope that he can reduce that rate. On average, flyballs hit off Hutchison travelled 272 feet, which is not a great distance at all. Also, most of the damage was done by lefty batters on pitches on the outer part of the zone, so with better location, Hutchison could do even more to limit long balls. The 24-year old is already a good strikeout pitcher with decent control. This season, a lower ERA and WHIP could be selling points as well.
J.A. Happ, SP, Mariners (Roto: Rd. N/A, H2H: Rd. N/A)
Fantasy leaguers probably feel like they have seen more than enough of Happ already. In eight major league seasons, he has posted a sub-1.30 WHIP only once, back in 2009, and he has produced four straight years of 4.00-plus ERAs. A 32-year-old with an extended track record of mediocrity does not usually make for a high percentage breakout pick, but Happ's recent trends don't look like those of a pitcher about to enter the decline phase of his career. Happ's 2014 campaign with the Blue Jays wasn't a head-turner (11-11, 4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), but it was his best in four seasons, and it featured a harder fastball and better control. If only Happ could pitch in a venue that was less conducive to home runs...oh wait, the Jays took care of that by trading him to the Mariners this offseason. In Seattle, Happ not only gets a pitcher-friendlier park but also the pitch-framing talents of Zunino. If you can't bear to snag Happ in the reserve rounds of your mixed league drafts, at least be prepared to put him on your Scout Team.
Allen Webster, SP, Diamondbacks (Roto: Rd. N/A, H2H: Rd. N/A)
Taking a chance on Webster requires a little extra faith, because he has had little success as a major leaguer, and he faces an uphill battle in his quest for a rotation spot. Problems with control have sabotaged his ERA and WHIP, but the one thing he has carried over from his minor league work is a high swinging strike rate. During the portion of last season that he spent at Triple-A Pawtucket, Webster showed signs of getting acquainted with the strike zone, throwing 62 percent of his pitches for strikes (per StatCorner) and walking 3.2 batters per nine innings. Those aren't great ratios, but they're a huge improvement over his prior minor and major league control indicators.
With better control could come more called strikes, and with more called strikes should come more strikeouts. That's the chain reaction that kicked off Garrett Richards' 2014 breakout, and I could see Webster following in his footsteps. Even if he loses out on a rotation spot this spring, there could be ample opportunities for him to claim a spot and run with it during the season, as no one else in the rotation is a sure thing to stick.
