2025 NFL MVP odds, scenarios: How Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye or Josh Allen can take home the trophy

Which of the three inner-circle contenders will be crowned Most Valuable Player?

With just three weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, most eyes in and around the league are on the playoff race, which is still incredibly closely contended in each conference. But it's also not the only race drawing attention: the contest for the Most Valuable Player award is, for good reason, heating up. 

Right now, there are three inner-circle candidates: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (-300 at DraftKings), New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (+425) and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+550). Everybody else in the league is at +7500 odds or worse, giving them a less than 2% chance to win the award. 

With that in mind, we want to take a look at what likely needs to happen down the stretch of the season for each of those players to come award with the trophy at the end of the year, as well as if there's anything that any of the other pseudo-contenders can do to crash the party.

Below, we will break down the latest NFL MVP odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Matthew Stafford, Rams (-300)

Stafford is the heavy favorite heading into the final three weeks of the season, with the odds implying that he has a 75% chance to win the award, which is pretty incredible. It's also perhaps not that surprising. Stafford leads the NFL in touchdown passes, passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, while ranking fifth in TruMedia's EPA per dropback. The Rams are also the No. 1 seed in the NFC in large part due to his exploits. 

For him to keep this stranglehold on the award, the Rams probably need to hang onto the top seed in the conference down the stretch of the season. To that end, Thursday's game against the division rival Seattle Seahawks is absolutely massive. 

If the Rams win, they'll be a full game ahead of the Seahawks with the tiebreaker in hand, and a game and a half ahead of the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. They'd have the inside track on the NFC West title and the No. 1 spot. The MVP usually comes from a team that wins one of the top two or three slots in its conference, and given that the other inner-circle candidates seem like they could be fighting for second place in the AFC at best, it would go a long way toward securing things for Stafford is he can help his team wrap up the No. 1 seed. 

Especially if he puts together a strong performance against a Seahawks defense that is one of the best in the NFL -- and does so on "Thursday Night Football" -- he'll have the opportunity to create a really powerful narrative heading into the stretch run.

Drake Maye, Patriots (+425)

It's very interesting that Maye still has better odds than Allen after the way Sunday's game went. Maye's team is a game ahead of Allen's in the AFC East race, and it seems like that's probably why Maye remains "ahead" in the race in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

New England's three remaining games are against the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. That Ravens game is on "Sunday Night Football" next week, so Maye will have a chance to make a huge statement in that game. 

If the Patriots pull off a win powered by a big performance from Maye, then beat the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks of the season, then maybe he can pull off a comeback and overtake Stafford for the award -- especially if Stafford struggles and/or the Rams lose to the Seahawks in another national game on Thursday. Stafford has the numbers on Maye, which is why he's such a heavy implied favorite at the moment, but there are a lot of narrative voters out there, and big games late in the season can often have an outsized effect on the outcome. 

New England could also still possibly pull off nabbing the No. 1 seed in the AFC by surpassing the Denver Broncos down the stretch of the season. The Pats are a game behind Denver, which plays the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers over the next three weeks. Maye and New England will need to go 3-0 and have Denver go 1-2 or worse down the stretch in order to flip the seeding, though, and if the Patriots come in second in their conference while the Rams come in first, that may be a deciding factors in the minds of some voters. 

Josh Allen, Bills (+550)

Given the current odds, it seems like Vegas thinks the Bills need to win the AFC East in order for Allen to win the MVP. The likelihood of the MVP coming from a team that finishes with the No. 5 or 6 seed in its own conference seems extremely low -- even if that team finishes with the third-best record in the conference and is only that low in the seeding because of tiebreakers. 

The Bills are still alive in the division race, but their chances aren't great. They probably need to win out and have the Patriots lose at least once, and the only way they pass the Pats if the two teams finish with the same record is if one or more of New England's losses comes against one of the two AFC East teams left on the schedule. If the Pats lose to the Ravens but beat the Jets and Dolphins, they still win the division.

Still, if Allen goes scorched earth down the stretch of the season, tearing apart the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and Jets, maybe there's a chance that voters overlook the standings and decide that Allen is the best player in the NFL and therefore deserves to take home the trophy. 

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The others

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and Packers quarterback Jordan Love are next up in the odds at DraftKings, each at +7500, making them significant long shots. Beyond them, it's Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams each at +10000 odds.

It's hard to see any of them overtaking any of the quarterbacks above. 

If Nix were a serious candidate, he would already be getting more love in the odds markets. Most people in and around the league give Denver's defense the lion's share of the credit for the Broncos having the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and rightfully so. Nix is coming off his best game of the season -- and arguably the best of his career -- and if that didn't shift the odds in his favor, it's hard to see anything that could happen down the stretch that would do so. The Broncos keeping the top spot in the AFC, though, could hold back Maye and/or Allen's candidacy for the award.

With the Packers falling behind the Bears in the NFC North, it's going to be hard for Love to jump into the mix. That's especially the case because it's going to be difficult for Green Bay to close out the season with victories after the injuries to Micah Parsons and Christian Watson, the latter of which thankfully isn't considered serious but which could still affect the team if he has to miss time.

Darnold isn't playing particularly well in recent weeks as the Seahawks offense has sputtered several times. He has an opportunity to change the narrative against the Rams on Thursday, though, and if he hits a heater down the stretch and the Seahawks capture the top seed, he could garner down-ballot votes and/or damage Stafford's candidacy. 

Herbert hasn't been great the last two weeks while playing with a broken hand, and the best the Chargers can do is likely the No. 5 seed given how far they are behind the Broncos in the division race. And Williams, like Nix, doesn't get the lion's share of the credit for his team's success, given the strength of the run game and how the passing game has been inconsistent throughout much of the season.