Over the last several seasons, the NFL has been trending more and more toward shorter, quicker passes designed to get the ball into the hands of playmakers and let them go to work in open space. This trend is why completion percentages keep rising (hello, Sam Bradford), the average distance of throws keeps dropping, and the league keeps throwing the ball more and more often. The quicker the ball gets out, the less chance the quarterback has of being sacked, the greater chance the pass has of being completed before a defender can break it up, and the more time the receiver has to make a play with the football.
Getting rid of the ball quickly on short-to-intermediate passes doesn't necessarily align with the strengths of every quarterback in the league, though. Big-armed pocket passers that prefer to throw deeper down the field are still around. One of them plies his trade in Tampa Bay, and in the 2017 season we're going to see the Buccaneers attempt to fully unleash him on deep passes.
(The Bucs are back at training camp! Don't MISS anything as they prepare to try and make the playoffs -- take five seconds to Sign up for our Free Bucs newsletter now!)
Jameis Winston came out of college with his instincts and his arm strength listed as the two major positives in his game. Because of his size and his arm, he was compared by many scouting services to another strong deep thrower: Steelers star Ben Roethlisberger.
At Bleacher Report:
Winston is a smart, instinctive, tough quarterback. He has the arm strength to make every throw at a high level, showing enough depth and velocity to hit deep outs and throw a 20-yard-crosser on a line. Winston anticipates routes well and is confident to throw the ball before his receiver breaks off the route.
At NFL.com:
Considered by scouting community to be advanced in ability to scan field and get through progressions. Has natural feel for throwing windows and anticipates openings that other college quarterbacks don't see. Has height to see over offensive line and thickness of build to withstand NFL hits. Big arm by NFL standards. Gets full extension and follow through into throws with ability to drive ball into the seam in front of safeties. Can make all of the field-side throws teams need.
At Sporting News:
While his release could be quickened, he has shown plus-ability in anticipating route breaks by his receivers, finishing throws in the middle of the field, throwing his receivers open while they adjust from coverage, and beating teams without the consistent use of short-area throws like many top offenses in college.
He's confident and level headed, seemingly improving after a drive that ends in a turnover and showing a willingness to take "controlled chances" down the field and from the pocket. And while his accuracy outside the hashes and vertically on secondary reads don't have ideal placement, his ability to spin a tight ball, finish throws in the mid-range, and control his velocity to allow for catchable balls across the field is what NFL teams want in a young quarterback.
Other scouting reports highlighted the same skills. Winston however threw deep on only 12 percent of his passes during his first two seasons in the league, and was not especially accurate on those throws.
For the most part, he's had just one receiver truly capable of stretching the field vertically on a consistent basis: Mike Evans. He peppered Evans with a metric ton of targets over the last two years, throwing his way 148 times in 2015 and 173 times in 2016. Of those 321 passes, 73 of them (22.7 percent) were thrown at least 20 yards down the field, according to Pro Football Focus, including a league-leading 39 in 2016.
No WR saw more targets on deep passes in 2016 than Tampa Bay's Mike Evans pic.twitter.com/kqp2tSEatM
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 3, 2017
Evans turned those deep targets into 21 catches for 630 yards and seven touchdowns. The rest of the Bucs' pass-catchers combined only accounted for 746 yards and nine touchdowns on deep throws at least 20 yards downfield.
Luckily, the Bucs acquired possibly the premier deep-ball specialist in the league this offseason when they signed former Eagles and Washington receiver DeSean Jackson. Jackson has been in the NFL since 2008. In nine seasons, he's led the league in yards per reception three times, and he's racked up 498 catches for 8,819 yards and 46 touchdowns in his career.
Of those 498 catches, 105 came on throws at least 20 yards downfield. Nobody has more catches on such throws since Jackson entered the NFL. Of his 8,819 receiving yards, 4,152 came on throws at least 20 yards downfield. Nobody has more yards on such throws since Jackson entered the NFL. And of his 46 touchdowns, 32 of them came on throws at least 20 yards downfield. Again, nobody has more touchdowns on such throws since Jackson entered the NFL.
Even at 30 years old last season, Jackson finished second in the league in deep catches (16) and first in deep receiving yards (579).
| Year | Rec | Yards | TD | Deep Rec | Deep Yd | Deep TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 62 | 912 | 2 | 11 | 334 | 1 |
| 2009 | 62 | 1,156 | 9 | 12 | 537 | 6 |
| 2010 | 47 | 1,056 | 6 | 13 | 551 | 3 |
| 2011 | 58 | 961 | 4 | 9 | 375 | 2 |
| 2012 | 45 | 700 | 2 | 6 | 231 | 2 |
| 2013 | 82 | 1,332 | 9 | 16 | 553 | 8 |
| 2014 | 56 | 1,169 | 6 | 12 | 600 | 3 |
| 2015 | 30 | 528 | 4 | 10 | 392 | 4 |
| 2016 | 56 | 1,005 | 4 | 16 | 579 | 3 |
| Total | 498 | 8,819 | 46 | 105 | 4,152 | 32 |
With Jackson on hand, opposing safeties will have to play farther off the line of scrimmage, which means intermediate throwing lanes will be looser. With Jackson pushing to take the top off the defense, Evans will have more room to operate, which means he'll do even more damage. When he does more damage, the defense will have to roll more coverage his way, which means Jackson will get more opportunities to beat his man deep one-on-one. Everything is connected.
And they're not the only two players capable of stretching the defense thin. While Jackson and Evans will primarily operate on the perimeter, rookie tight end O.J. Howard will challenge defenses deep down the seam. Howard is a monster-sized (6-foot-6, 251 pounds, 33 3/4-inch arms) athletic freak. He's too quick for linebackers and most safeties, far too big for most corners, and his catch radius is absolutely massive.
The hope is that with three different kinds of deep threats, the Bucs will be able to help Winston reach his full potential as a downfield passer. Jackson is the burner. Howard is the physical marvel. And Evans is the complete package capable of using size, speed, physicality, and sheer strength to win any ball at the point of attack. Jameis will have to do more than just put the ball in their general vicinity in order to improve his performance on these types of throws, but with a greater variety of players capable of beating their man deep, he should have larger windows into which to throw than he has previously.
The Bucs obviously have high hopes for Winston not just this season, but over the rest of his career. They drafted him No. 1 overall for a reason. The third year of a quarterback's career is a big one, and the Bucs are doing everything they can to put Winston in position to succeed.
