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Like many weeks this season, Week 13 was good to us. We went 11-5 against the spread, and 3-2 on best bets. While I'm an incredible 106-87-1 ATS on the year, the real headline is I'm finally .500 on my best bets. I know, it doesn't make sense.

It was bold to predict that underdogs would cover in every Thanksgiving game, plus the Black Friday matchup, but that's exactly what happened. I even picked the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys to win straight up. I'm also proud of picking the New York Jets to upset the Atlanta Falcons as well. This week, I'm examining the underrated matchup of Shedeur Sanders vs. Cam Ward, Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen and what we should make of these Washington Commanders. 

Here's a look at what I'm thinking for Week 14. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Top five picks ATS record: 32-32-1
  • Overall ATS record: 106-87-1
  • Straight up record: 135-58-1

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Can you imagine what the narrative will be if Shedeur Sanders outplays Cam Ward? You won't have to imagine, because that's what's going to happen on Sunday. We missed on Browns +5.5 last week, but the San Francisco 49ers are a pretty competitive team. The 1-11 Titans are not.

Many believed the Titans were making some progress in recent weeks, but then Sunday happened. In a 25-3 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee went 2 of 12 on third downs and recorded just 188 yards of total offense -- 70 of which came on the first drive. Now, the most anemic offense in the NFL has to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is led by Myles Garrett. This unit ranks second in yards per game allowed (271.3) and sacks per game (3.6) entering this week.

Sanders hasn't done anything incredible in his two starts, but I do like his potential compared to Dillon Gabriel. The Browns cover vs. the Titans. 

The pick: Browns -3.5
Projected score: Browns 17-6

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I did not expect Joe Burrow to look that good in his return to the lineup on Thanksgiving night, as he threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati is 3-0 with Burrow in the lineup this season, and 1-8 without him. Burrow is 2-0 against Josh Allen, and 14-3 against the spread in his career as an underdog of three or more points. That's the best mark by any quarterback since at least 1970. I'm not bold enough to take the Bengals straight up in this matchup, but I will take 5.5 points. 

Burrow is such a difference-maker, and has the Bengals still alive in the AFC North race. SportsLine data expert Stephen Oh says Cincy has a 6.3% chance to steal the division away from John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin. 

The pick: Bengals +5.5
Projected score: Bills 28-24

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

In this matchup, we have a team overperforming with a backup quarterback and change in defensive leadership vs. a team that has been incredibly disappointing due to terrible quarterback play. The team that has been incredibly disappointing due to terrible quarterback play is favored.

I don't want to overreact to the Commanders' overtime loss to the Denver Broncos, but their defense played better than I expected, then Terry McLaurin turned in his best performance of the season with 96 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. As I'm typing this it's unclear if Jayden Daniels returns, but I'm also not sure if that would affect my pick. J.J. McCarthy has really struggled, as he ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage (54.1%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-10) and passer rating (57.9) this season. He's actually the first Vikings quarterback to have three straight multi-interception games since Christian Ponder in 2012! 

Both of these teams are 4-8 ATS on the year, which ranks worst in the NFL. But the Vikings haven't covered in four straight games. I'm going to take Washington in an "upset." 

The pick: Commanders +1.5
Projected score: Commanders 24-21

Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Rams were probably the one team I trusted in the NFL. Then, they went and lost to the Carolina Panthers as double-digit favorites. That was a weird game, as Matthew Stafford came out too aggressive, the Rams lost the turnover battle, 3-0, and the defense couldn't stop the Panthers on third and fourth downs.

I still have faith in this Rams team, and I'm expecting a big bounce-back against a team that was just eliminated from playoff contention. A bounce-back from Stafford and a bounce-back from the defense as a whole.

The pick: Rams -8.5
Projected score: Rams 31-20

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

It was about time Vegas stopped making the Chargers favorites in every game. Seriously, L.A. hasn't been an underdog since Week 1, and is 6-6 against the spread. With the number under a field goal, I like the Eagles in this matchup. Philly has lost back-to-back games, so Jalen Hurts and Co. aren't dropping this one. The Eagles haven't lost three games in a row since 2023. The main headline here is Justin Herbert trying to play after having surgery on his fractured hand Monday. So it will either be Trey Lance or a one-handed Herbert under center for the Chargers. 

The pick: Eagles -2.5
Projected score: Eagles 27-20

Other Week 14 picks

Cowboys (+3.5) 26-23 over Lions
Dolphins (-3) 23-17 over Jets
Seahawks (-6.5) 30-20 over Falcons
Buccaneers 24-23 over Saints (+8.5)
Jaguars (+1.5) 30-27 over Colts
Ravens 23-20 over Steelers (+5.5)
Broncos (-7.5) 22-14 over Raiders
Packers (-6.5) 28-20 over Bears
Chiefs 24-21 over Texans (+3.5)