We can talk about roster depth, coaches, officials ... and all will figure into the outcome of Super Bowl 49, but more important are key matchups: Man vs. man at the critical spots.
There are a number of very interesting matchups, broken down after looking at plenty of game tape:
Rob Gronkowski vs. Kam Chancellor: "Gronk" is the Seahawks' biggest challenge. They yielded 11 touchdown passes to tight ends, and you can bet Bill Belichick and Pats OC Josh McDaniels have watched all 11. I watched San Diego's 30-21 victory over Seattle from Sept. 14 as the backbone of an attack on Kam Chancellor. San Diego TE Antonio Gates caught seven passes for 96 yards and three touchdowns. Gates got singled on Chancellor for two of those. He used a ladder route to create separation in the red zone and had an easy score for the first. Next, LB K.J. Wright was on Gates with Chancellor helping over the top, but Chargers QB Philip Rivers saw the space between the two defenders and stuck the ball in there. Then, Chancellor pressed up on Gates, who beat the press for a score.
Gronk was targeted 131 times this season for 12 touchdowns. Seattle must create a way to eliminate Gronkowski from the red-zone passing attack. Former NFL TE and CBS analyst Tony Gonzalez thinks "vise" coverage is the only way to eliminate him. ADVANTAGE: Patriots
Vince Wilfork vs. Justin Britt: Wilfork can line up anywhere up front and will spend time on the nose against Seattle All-Pro center Max Unger. But the most interesting matchup will come when he works against rookie RT Justin Britt. Britt did not play in the NFC Championship Game because of injury, but will start in the Super Bowl. Britt has given up eight sacks this season, and big Wilfork will bull rush the young tackle. However, the Seahawks gain 5.7 yards per carry when they run right. Russell Wilson will counter with run checks that change the run to go away from this matchup. ADVANTAGE: Even
Brandon Browner vs. Doug Baldwin: Seattle's receivers know Browner well, since he's a former Seahawks CB. Browner is a big, physical corner who has struggled against quickness and speed. He was flagged 10 times for pass interference or defensive holding this season; there is little doubt the Seahawks will go after him by having Baldwin put on double moves. Baldwin has been targeted 28 times for 19 receptions in the past four games, and torched the Packers in the NFC title game for six catches and 106 yards. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks
LeGarrette Blount vs. Bobby Wagner: Both teams feature big power backs, and the middle linebackers need to meet them head on. When Wagner is healthy (which he is right now), the Seahawks run defense gives up less than 100 yards a game and Wagner averages 10 tackles. Seattle has given up one rushing TD in its past eight games. However, Blount has the threat of Tom Brady and his passing attack on every play to keep Seattle honest. There's no secret to Blount: It's power running inside. However, Wagner is a rangy, quick linebacker who is better against outside runs. Seattle will stunt its front to close inside gaps and make Blount bounce outside, which will favor Wagner. ADVANTAGE: Even
Dont'a Hightower vs. Marshawn Lynch: Beast Mode is ready for a big day against a Patriots defense that has given up an average of 110 yards on the ground its past four games. I watched New England's divisional-round game, and Baltimore liked to run left directly at Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Hightower had to hustle to get to the ball carrier and got caught up in the blocking scheme enough to open up the cutback game. Lynch is the master of the power cutback. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks
Tom Brady vs. Earl Thomas: Thomas has faced Tom Brady only once but notched an interception and two passes defended. Thomas has range, and Brady has to be aware of him all the time. This postseason, Thomas has zero interceptions and only two passes defended. Brady will employ the pump fake to move Thomas, who is banged up. ADVANTAGE: Patriots
Darrelle Revis vs. Jermaine Kearse: Kearse was the targeted receiver for all four of the interceptions Wilson suffered in the NFC title game, before Kearse got behind the secondary for the winning TD in overtime. Revis has given up only two touchdowns all season, and it would be wise for Wilson to stay away from Kearse when Revis covers him. The best chance for Seattle to win this battle is the QB scramble when Wilson has the presence to look deep. ADVANTAGE: Patriots
Brandon LaFell vs. Richard Sherman: Don't throw the ball deep against Richard Sherman. Sherman has two interceptions and three passes defended in the postseason. LaFell, or any other receivers who line up against Sherman, have a better chance on quick routes and "dig" routes inside. When the routes are down the field, Sherman is a better receiver than the guys he's covering. ADVANTAGE: Seahawks
