The Kansas City Chiefs' journey to the first three-peat in NFL history begins this Saturday, when they host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in the divisional round. Patrick Mahomes is 14-0 in his postseason career when playing quarterbacks not named Joe Burrow or Tom Brady, and he has never lost in the divisional round before. As for the Texans, they have never advanced past the divisional round, and have never won a playoff game on the road.
These two teams met less than a month ago in Kansas City, and an unfortunate event appeared to turn the tide in this matchup. After Tank Dell caught what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown early in the third quarter, he was carted off the field with a significant knee injury. Stroud was noticeably emotional on the field, and Ka'imi Fairbairn even missed the extra point on the next play. The Chiefs then orchestrated a 10-3 run to pull away and secure their 14th victory of the season.
Following their upset of the Los Angeles Chargers in Wild Card Weekend, the Texans are refocused and ready for this pivotal matchup. What do they need to do to win this matchup and upset the Chiefs? I'm glad you asked.
1. Limit Mahomes' legs
We know what Mahomes can do throwing the football, but at times, his scrambling ability has been the X factor for Kansas City. Mahomes actually runs more in the playoffs than he does in the regular season.
In his eight regular seasons, Mahomes is averaging 3.9 rushing attempts for 20 yards per game. In his 18 playoff games, Mahomes averages five rushing attempts for 29.1 yards per game. Mahomes rushed for at least 44 yards in his last two Super Bowl victories, including in the Super Bowl LVIII overtime victory against the San Francisco 49ers, when he led the Chiefs with 66 rushing yards on nine carries. On that game-winning drive vs. the 49ers, Mahomes picked up a first down with his legs on a fourth-and-1, and a third-and-1.
Just go back to Houston's loss vs. Kansas City a few weeks ago. Mahomes rushed for 12 yards on a third-and-13 on the Chiefs' first drive of the game to set up an easy fourth-down conversion. Minutes later, he rushed for a 15-yard touchdown. Mahomes' legs are his most underrated weapon in the playoffs. The Texans need to contain his scrambling.
2. Win the turnover battle
When you're playing the Chiefs in Arrowhead, you can't beat yourself. The Texans ended the 2024 regular season with a +10 in turnover differential, but Houston lost the turnover battle, 0-2, vs. Kansas City in Week 16. Stroud started off the game with an interception, which allowed the Chiefs to score the first points of the contest, and then a second-quarter Stroud interception allowed the Chiefs to hit a field goal to extend their lead to seven points right before the halftime break.
The Chiefs don't turn the ball over much, as they finished the regular season with just 14 giveaways, tied for No. 4 in the NFL. Winning the turnover battle would be great for Houston, but at the very least, the Texans can't gift the Chiefs extra possessions.
3. Another offensive weapon needs to step up
Joe Mixon rushed 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown vs. the Chargers, while Nico Collins caught seven passes for 122 yards and one touchdown. Stroud added 42 yards rushing on six carries, but the majority of offensive production came from those three players. Naturally, Kansas City will key on Mixon and Collins, so someone else needs to step up.
Could it be Xavier Hutchinson or John Metchie III? The Diontae Johnson experiment obviously didn't work out. What about Dalton Schultz? He caught five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown vs. the Chiefs last month. Someone else needs to rise to the occassion.
