Most every week, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You'll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven't already. There's no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.
With two more home runs Tuesday, Tyler Soderstrom now leads everyone by two, making it safe to call him the biggest breakthrough hitter so far.
And maybe it won't last. I wrote earlier this week about how nothing we've seen to this point actually matters yet, and Soderstrom wouldn't be the first April sensation to collapse thereafter. But given his top prospect pedigree and the way he's impacting the ball, with both his average and max exit velocity readings verging on the 90th percentile, we of course have to take seriously the possibility that he's an absolute masher now.
He's also just a part of what's shaping up to be a massive influx of talent at first base, a position that was in dire need of it. During the height of Draft Prep season, I began stressing the importance of drafting first base early since it was where I most often found myself getting boxed out of anything halfway reliable. If you waited too long, you'd be forced to try your luck in the breakout lottery.
Turns out that may have been the right approach, though. The more dire your first base situation was coming out of the draft, the more likely you are to have grabbed one of Soderstrom, Ben Rice, Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Aranda or Michael Busch. Shoot, you may have even grabbed a couple.
The real question now is how much faith to put in them. Surely, they won't all follow through on the upside they're demonstrating right now. Meanwhile, some of the early-season underachievers who had more of our trust coming into the year, such as Triston Casas and Jake Burger, are likely to come around. At what point do the newcomers overtake the old standbys?
Let's examine ...
First base
- Yeah ... I've moved Soderstrom ahead of Casas, which puts him in the top 10 at the position. Some might want to move him ahead of Christian Walker as well, but after the way the last three years have gone for Walker, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. What benefit of the doubt does Casas deserve, though? Other than the second half of 2023 -- when, yes, he looked like a stud -- there hasn't been much to get excited about. You could argue pedigree -- and sure, I'm not giving up on that -- but Soderstrom has plenty of his own. Either way, it's a leap of faith without much track record to draw on, so why not go for the one who's actually demonstrating his potential right now?
- Rice and Torkelson have of course been in our sights for a while now and made their way into my top 20 at the position weeks ago. Jonathan Aranda and Michael Busch are the latest to join them, and there's plenty of reason for optimism with both. Their minor-league track records are unimpeachable, and both show a willingness to work the count. But it's Aranda in particular who's just obliterating the ball, ranking 95th percentile or better and basically every critical hitting metric, and when we saw him do something similar at Triple-A in 2023, he wound up hitting .339 with 25 homers and a 1.063 OPS in 95 games. The reason I continue to rank Aranda and Busch behind Rice and Torkelson is because, at least so far, they've been strict platoon players. Aranda probably climbs into my top 15, though, if he starts playing against left-handers.
- Pete Alonso's hot start has moved him up to third for me, ahead of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson. Freeman seems like he'll be managing a couple nagging injuries all season and should be downgraded just for that. Meanwhile, Alonso and Olson have long been regarded as mirror images of each other, so there's no reason to insist on keeping Olson ahead.
Second base
- If anyone other than Soderstrom has a case for being the biggest breakthrough hitter so far, it's Kyren Paris, who was a non-entity for Fantasy coming into the year. There's no sparkling pedigree or minor-league track record to draw from here. You're basically just hoping that his work with Aaron Judge's hitting coach this offseason has a magical component to it. Suffice it to say I'm skeptical, particularly since Paris' pedestrian exit velocities don't at all align with his production so far. Still, second base has enough replaceable players that I can justify slotting him as high as 13th, behind fellow early standouts Brice Turang and Tommy Edman.
- Every week, I seem to find more second basemen that I prefer to Luis Garcia, and his free fall has now landed him 19th at the position. It shows how flimsy his profile was in the first place. He performed well last year, which earned him a high ranking at a position where few deserved one, but really, it wasn't clear if any of the ways he contributed -- the batting average, the power, the speed -- was sustainable. And if he's certain to sit against left-handers anyway, there would seem to be a strict limit on his upside.
Third base
- The big surprise at this position is Nolan Arenado, who looked like he was aging out of Fantasy usefulness but has been productive so far and has a couple underlying data points worth noting. The first is that his bat speed is up, which has allowed him to turn on elite velocity again. The second is that his plate discipline has been immaculate, better than we've ever seen from him. I'm not sure how sustainable either is for the 34-year-old, but I think he takes priority over Jonathan India and Cam Smith at this point.
- You'll notice I've moved Matt Shaw down only three spots, to 21st, with the news of him being optioned to Triple-A. That's about the point where third base sees the steepest dropoff, with nobody of any real stature coming thereafter, so I'd rather stash Shaw unless doing so would mean keeping him in my starting lineup. Seeing as the Cubs don't have much of a plan at third base otherwise, I suspect he'll be back as soon as he gains some momentum at Triple-A.
Shortstop
- After three years mostly lost to injury, Trevor Story has come in hot to begin 2025, flashing enough power and speed to become a lineup fixture, at least in 5x5-scoring leagues, early on. It's enough for me to move him ahead of players like Ezequiel Tovar, Jeremy Pena and Ceddanne Rafaela, but even that barely gets him into the top 20 at a deep position. Factor in the injury risk and the high strikeout rate (upward of 30 percent), and I'd prefer to proceed with some caution here.
- Geraldo Perdomo has been the best shortstop in Fantasy so far thanks in large part to a .321 batting average. But he's also struck out just four times for a 2.9 percent rate that's five times lower than what it'll end up being. He is hitting the ball harder on average, but it's probably just early-season noise. While I've at least moved Perdomo into the visible range of my rankings now, I can't justify moving him ahead of players like Ceddanne Rafaela and Masyn Winn yet, which means he's coming in only 26th.
Catcher
- Sean Murphy has been outfitted with glasses since the last time we saw him, addressing an astigmatism that had previously gone undiagnosed, and judging by his performance in seven games back from a rib injury, he's seeing the ball much, much better. It never made sense how hard he crashed from 2023, when he was an offensive force, to 2024, when he was straight-up misery. We attributed it to injury, but maybe he just couldn't see right. I've always liked the skill set and buy into the vision theory enough that I've moved Murphy into my top 10, ahead of Logan O'Hoppe and Austin Wells.
- Carson Kelly has already hit for the cycle and had a separate two-homer game this season, blurring the line between starter (Miguel Amaya) and backup for the Cubs. He and Amaya figure to have close to an even split for the time being, and while I'm not suggesting Kelly is a rising star or anything, it's not a stretch to move him into the startable range for two-catcher leagues, right at 20th at the position. Pedro Pages and Dillon Dingler have moved in just behind him.
Outfield
- Jung Hoo Lee continues to climb, placing inside the top 40 for me now even in Rotisserie. It's tempting to move him ahead of Jasson Dominguez and Cedric Mullins as well, but their best-case outcomes remain higher even if their floors are probably lower.
- I may have underestimated Kerry Carpenter's potential to contribute in Fantasy even as a platoon player, and it turns out he may not be a strict platoon player, having started against two of the last four left-handers the Tigers have faced. At the very least, he should rank alongside Wilyer Abreu, another productive outfielder who tends to sit against lefties, so that's where I've moved him.
- Kameron Misner, Kyle Stowers and Alex Call are the outfielders who have gone from unranked to ranked this week, not that any ranks particularly high given their lack of job security. Misner is the most interesting for Fantasy given the speed element he brings.
Starting pitcher
- Corbin Burnes and Chris Sale have slipped behind Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet, which is pretty easy to justify given how good Ragans and Crochet have looked so far. I'm not panicking about Burnes or Sale, but there's more reason for concern with them, particularly the state of Burnes' cutter.
- Spencer Strider climbs to 13th ahead of his season debut. There's certainly top-five potential, but I'm choosing to exercise restraint following elbow surgery, particularly since his fastball was lagging a couple miles per hour on his rehab assignment (not that it prevented him from dominating).
- Robbie Ray has dropped from 36th to 46th. He hasn't been missing bats at nearly the rate I hoped he would and still has the usual control and hard-contact issues. Gavin Williams has slid along with him to 51st and now ranks behind both Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt.
- Dustin May is up from 68th and 58th, and it'll be hard to get him much higher than that, for as good as he looks right now. The premium velocity and wicked movement he's able to generate takes a toll physically, such that he's never thrown more than 56 innings in a major-league season. The last time he had more than 100 innings in any season, majors or minors, was 2019.
- Hayden Wesneski, Zebby Matthews and Chase Dollander are the big risers for this week, all moving inside the top 85.
Relief pitcher
- Edwin Diaz has dropped behind Mason Miller for me, and I'm tempted to move him down further given that his velocity is down for a second straight year. He's working with the least he's ever had, in fact, and it's not going well. You don't get to be one of the greats at the position, like he is, without learning to navigate through stretches like this, but seeing as he was something of a disappointment last year, my faith is shaken.
- My decision to move Andres Munoz and Robert Suarez ahead of Ryan Helsley and Raisel Iglesias is less because I've lost faith in Helsley and Iglesias than because Munoz and Suarez have relieved my biggest concerns about them coming into the year. Munoz is finally looking like a true full-time closer now that Scott Servais is no longer the one handling him, and Suarez is looking like the dominant version we saw in the first half of last year rather than the shaky one we saw in the second half.
