Thankfully, Week 2 is over. Despite recommending names like Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase and Noah Fant to you in this very column last week, I was way underweight on the three, which made for a disastrous Week 2. The cherry on top was watching the Big Dog Derrick Henry decimate the Seahawks for 50.7 DraftKings points while I had exactly zero exposure. Good times. Onwards and upwards.
As of Friday, we're looking at three games with a total over 54 points in Week 3: Chargers-Chiefs, Seahawks-Vikings, and Bucs-Rams. It will make sense to try and jam players in our lineups from these games, but keep in mind that DFS pricing is getting tighter. I believe your first major decision this week is deciding whether to pay up for wide receivers or running backs so let's start there.
Pay up at RB or WR?
It's easy to want to gravitate towards Henry given his massive performance in Week 2, but his $8,600 DraftKings salary is highest on the main slate. Loop in a banged up Dalvin Cook, who is projecting near 20% ownership, and an underperforming Alvin Kamara and I think I know which way I'm leaning on whether to pay up at RB or WR. Of those three games with massive point totals, we have four wide receivers over $7,000 and 10 over $6,000. If you want exposure to those passing attacks, chances are you're paying up at wide receiver and/or Travis Kelce this week.
I think my two favorites to target are on the same team with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They've combined for 62% of the Seahawks' target share and get the Vikings defense, which has allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers over their first two games. Each of DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green scored against them last week. We also have strong bring-back options on the other wide in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen with a value play at K.J. Osborn. Obviously other names like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs are in play, but it just comes down to preference.
Here are my other favorite mid-tier wide receivers on the slate:
This also doesn't mean I'm completely mid-tier at running back. I'll have a few lineups where I pay up at the position and when I do, the main three I'll be looking at are Austin Ekeler at $7,200, Saquon Barkley at $6,500, and Joe Mixon at $6,300.
Where's the value at RB?
Yes, if you're paying at wide receiver, that means you're going to need cheaper running backs to fill out your roster. There is one obvious name that pops as soon as you scroll down running back pricing: Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He's been a polarizing player to this point in his young career because, despite playing on one of the NFL's best offenses, he hasn't done much. Tie in the fact that he's coming off a game with a costly fumble and exactly zero targets and that's how we find CEH at just $4,800 on DraftKings. You'll want to stay away on FanDuel where he still costs $6,500.
Mike McClure, as heard on the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast, is all aboard the Edwards-Helaire train in Week 3 as well.
"Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably, hate to say it, my favorite play in the (Chargers-Chiefs) game just because of the price point and ownership level," McClure said. "If you just add a touchdown to his box score this year without any additional usage, his ownership would be at least 5-10% higher in this spot. I think we're getting a discount on it."
Here are the top values at running back if you decide to spend up at wide receiver:
- J.D. McKissic $5,200
- Leonard Fournette $5,000
- James White, $4,900
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $4,800
- Nyheim Hines, $4,600
What to do at QB?
Most often, I think quarterback is pretty straight forward where you want to stack that position up with one or multiple pass catchers in your lineup. I mentioned earlier that I'll be on Lockett and Metcalf, which means I'll have Russell Wilson in that lineup at $7,600. Rightfully so, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will both be popular in their matchups this week as well.
That brings on the question whether or not to pay up for Kyler Murray who is quickly working his way into the MVP discussion. The problem is his price all the way up at $8,300. He's unique for DFS, too, because so far this season he's spreading the ball out. The Cardinals currently have five pass catchers between add a 14-20% target share. That makes finding the right stack a little tougher.
"I think we learned last week that you don't need stack Kyler with DeAndre Hopkins," Sia Nejad said on the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast. "At $5,000 I think Rondale Moore is good. I think if you wanted to get really sneaky, especially if Moore's ownership percentage starts to creep up a little bit, I think Christian Kirk can get behind this defense quite easily."
Here are stacks I'll be targeting in Week 3:
- Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, with Keenan Allen or Mike Williams on the other side
- Lamar Jackson to Marquise Brown, with T.J. Hockenson on the other side
- Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett, with one of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen or K.J. Osborn on the other side
The one quarterback I haven't mentioned yet is this week's wild card in Justin Fields. He's just $5,200 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel. What makes him a wild card is his rushing ability coupled with the fact that it's his first career NFL start against a tougher defense. Fields played 64% of the snaps in Week 2 and rushed for 31 yards. He's somebody who had over 1,100 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns in three-year collegiate career. I'll have at least one Fields lineup, but realize you don't need to stack him with a pass catcher given his rushing upside.
Value plays at receiver
I mentioned the running back values I'll be targeting earlier but there are some names to target at wide receiver and tight end as well, starting with Marvin Jones. He's only $4,900 on DraftKings and is clearly the early favorite for Trevor Lawrence. Jones leads the team with a 24% target share and three red zone targets. Nobody else on the Jaguars even has a red zone target. Jones will likely be chasing points with the Jaguars +7.5 at home against the Cardinals.
Here are my favorite values at wide receiver:
- Marvin Jones, $4,900
- Tyler Boyd, $4,700
- Mecole Hardman, $3,900
- K.J. Osborn, $3,500
- Van Jefferson, $3,400
I mentioned the Russell Wilson stack will be one of my favorites this week. Here's a GPP lineup I already have built out for Week 3: