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Week 3 was much kinder to the boys at Fantasy Football Today DFS. We were overweight on the Chiefs compared to the field and the chalk hit. It's really as simple as that. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, every other player in my cash game lineup was over 19% rostered. It just turns out that the likes of Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin came through once again. Let's look to keep this train rolling in Week 4.

As of now there are five games with a total exceeding 50 points with three of those coming in the early games. For me, the first step when constructing lineups this week is figuring out which of those games I want to target most. Just because a game has a high projected total doesn't mean we have to be in on that game. In fact, there are two games that stand out as potential phonies in Week 4 but which are they?

Choosing which game to avoid

Figuring out which games to avoid is just as important as choosing ones to target. Ask everybody who stacked the Cowboys-Chargers back in Week 2. Sure, there was bad luck with touchdowns that were called back, but this is a great place to start. It's obvious that the Cowboys defense is much improved and that they still want to run the ball. Of course they have an elite quarterback in Dak Prescott with talented pass catchers, but I don't think that's their true identity. Sia Nejad from FFT DFS agrees.

"The Cowboys want to be a run-first offense. The only reason we envision them as this pass-attempt machine is because last year they were just down 10-14 points every single game and they would just have to play comeback… If your eyes aren't telling that you they want to be run-first, the stats should. So Dak Prescott in the first game had 58 pass attempts. Combined in games two and three, he has 53 pass attempts."

Now this doesn't mean you need to completely avoid this game. You can target an Amari Cooper or D.J. Moore as one-off plays or even Ezekiel Elliott as a contrarian play. The point here is that you may not want to full-on game stack this one.

We're also a little weary of that Cardinals-Rams matchup. It's a star-studded affair that features some of the best quarterbacks and wide receivers in the game right now. However, both defenses have played well and the salaries/projected ownership are somewhat prohibitive, according to Mike McClure.

"I think this game should be a defensive struggle at times. I think that this one goes under. I think that the price points are kind of prohibitive. Ownership in combination with the price points are very prohibitive. At this point I don't think I'm going to play Cooper Kupp."

Similarly to the first game we spoke about, that doesn't mean you need to completely avoid this game. Just proceed with caution. Names like Chase Edmonds, Robert Woods, and Sony Michel represent decent value at their respective costs.

So which games should you stack? That leaves the other three with a 51-point total or better. My favorite right now is the Chiefs and Eagles. Both teams are desperate coming off divisional losses. My guess is the Chiefs start out hot and the Eagles are playing catch up, though it wouldn't surprise me if the game is more competitive given the Chiefs' defensive struggles. Here are my favorite game stacks for Week 4:

Identifying mid-tier value

This one's pretty easy. Just target the running back who had 19 targets last week. Ben Roethlisberger looks cooked and, as a result, he's once again throwing a ton of short passes this season. Najee Harris has been a beneficiary of that. Nobody thinks he will come close to that target total again. Heck, we don't even need double-digit targets. With that being said, there's a good chance he sees at least five or six, even with Diontae Johnson back. Harris is one of our favorite targets at $6,800 on DraftKings. Here are my favorites in that price range to target.

At wide receiver I already mentioned Moore and Cooper as two names to target in this price range. If we drop down a little lower, we find Odell Beckham in that matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Beckham played 64% of the offensive snaps in his Week 3 debut, running 34 routes on 41 Baker Mayfield dropbacks with a 31% target share. Jarvis Landry remains out and the Vikings have allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers this season. And if you're a fan of narrative street, Beckham is going up against one of the best wide receivers on the other side in Justin Jefferson (who also went to LSU I might add). It might seem foolish to consider something like that but I don't know, Beckham is a fiery dude like that. Here are my favorite wide receiver values in this range:

  • D.J. Moore, $6,600
  • Amari Cooper, $6,000
  • Odell Beckham, $5,800
  • Robert Woods, $5,300
  • Brandon Aiyuk, $5,000

The 'real' value plays

Chances are you'll likely have to take chances on a few cheaper plays every week. It's just the nature of playing a salary-based game. We don't really have a choice if we want players like Alvin Kamara and Davante Adams in our lineups. There are two in particular who really stand out for me. First is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine given all of the injuries to the Titans wide receivers. Westbrook-Ikhine ran the most routes last week (25) with 4-53-1 receiving. Of course it helps facing the New York Jets, too.

If you need a cheap tight end, can I offer you one Will Dissly? Gerald Everett tested positive for COVID this week and the other Seahawks pass catchers are beat up. Everett and Dissly have combined for a 16% target share on the season. I don't think Dissly will get all of those targets, but Russell Wilson clearly likes to use the tight end and has had success with Dissly in the past. This game has a 52-point total, so we need points to come from somewhere. Here are my favorite value plays:

Tournament lineup

Here's a GPP lineup I already have built out for Week 4:

  • Kirk Cousins, $6,400
  • Najee Harris, $6,800
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $5,400
  • Davante Adams, $7,900
  • Justin Jefferson, $7,300
  • Odell Beckham, $5,800
  • Will Dissly, $2,600
  • Brandon Aiyuk, $5,000
  • Cowboys DST, $2,600