With thousands of playoff scenarios still on the table as we enter the meat of the Week 16 NFL schedule, there are five games pitting teams that still have a mathematical shot of reaching the postseason. The Eagles (7-7) will host the Texans (10-4), with one team fighting to stay alive and the other battling for positioning. Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest NFL odds, while the Chiefs are two-point favorites in Seattle in a Sunday Night Football game with massive NFL playoff implications. Meanwhile, in a matchup where the incentive is more one-sided, the Rams are two-touchdown favorites in Arizona, one of the largest NFL spreads of the entire season. With varying levels of motivation in play and NFL odds and lines on the move, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's Week 16 NFL picks and predictions before locking in your own selections.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 16 on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 147-75 on the season, ranking in the top five on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 16 NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top Week 16 NFL picks the model recommends: the Lions (+6.5) cover at home against the Vikings.
Detroit (5-9) might not have any more skin in the postseason game, but they can bounce a division-rival out of the NFC playoff picture. That's the opportunity they have on Sunday against Minnesota (7-6-1).
The Lions' defense has played tough for the last five weeks, allowing just under 18 points per game to help Detroit go 3-2 against the spread. And the model projects that Detroit limits Vikings running back Dalvin Cook to just 56 yards rushing after his breakout performance last week. With Matthew Stafford projected to throw for nearly 250 yards and a touchdown, the Lions do just enough on both sides of the ball to cover in well over half of simulations. You can also back the Over (43), which hits well over 50 percent of the time.
The Patriots (9-5) are fresh off a 17-10 defeat at Pittsburgh and have lost back-to-back games for the second time this season. This will be the first time since 2009 that the Patriots will not win at least 12 games in the regular season, and they're in real danger of having to play on Wild Card weekend. The Bills (5-9), meanwhile, enter Sunday's AFC East showdown having won three of their last five games.
Despite Buffalo's recent hot-streak, the model is calling New England to right the ship at home on Sunday. The Patriots cover the nearly two-touchdown spread in 60 percent of simulations, while there's also value on the Over (44.5) because that hits 62 percent of the time. Don't be turned off by the double-digit spread; back Tom Brady and company with confidence on Sunday.
The model also has a strong pick for the huge battle between the Steelers and Saints, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13.5, 44.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3, 44.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38)
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, 48)
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+6.5, 43)
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+2.5, 46.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-10, 44)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+14, 44)
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5, 44)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 53)
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2, 55)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+3, 43)