usatsi-24027304-1-1.jpg
Imagn Images

There's only one WNBA game on Saturday night, and it's the Chicago Sky taking on the Dallas Wings at 8 p.m. ET. The Sky picked up their first win of the season against the Wings on Thursday and are now 1.5-point road underdogs in the rematch. The key reason why the spread is so low is that Dallas will be without Paige Bueckers after she suffered a concussion. This line was as high as Wings -3.5 at several sportsbooks before dropping down to Wings -1.5.

Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? Want to play WNBA player props? Let's check out the top plays from Saturday -- a pair of player prop wagers -- with odds from FanDuel.

Angel Reese 12+ rebounds -158 (1 unit, FD)

With Bueckers out, the obvious handicap is to look at Arike Ogunbowale props. But Ogunbowale's points prop is already at 21.5, so there isn't much value backing her there. Against a putrid Sky perimeter defense, I don't really want to take the Under there either. But what this also means is more Ogunbowale shots, and that's the angle I'd like to take here. 

On the season, Bueckers is shooting 43.7% from the floor on 11.8 shots per game, while Ogunbowale is at 36.8% from the floor on 15.8 shots per game. In the past two games against weaker defenses (Sun and Sky), Bueckers made 14 of her 21 shots from the field and took just three 3-point shots. Ogunbowale in that same two-game stretch, meanwhile, made 19 of 39 shots and went 9 of 20 from beyond the arc. I think the Wings will miss Bueckers' efficiency, and more Ogunbowale shots means more rebounding opportunities. 

Angel Reese is coming off a performance in which she tied her fewest minutes of the season at 25, but last game was a tight affair, and the other one was a 35-point blowout to the Fever. Reese wasn't in foul trouble either; it seemed like more of a message from Sky coach Tyler Marsh. Reese responded with a couple of key baskets at the end of the game, including the go-ahead shot with 1:21 left.

With the lower amount of playing time, Reese finished with a season-low nine rebounds. In every other game, she's finished with at least 12 rebounds, and she's hauled in at least 15 boards in two of them. The Wings are the fourth-worst defensive rebounding team, bringing them in 67.8% of the time on opponent misses. Overall, the Wings rank eighth out of 13 in rebounding percentage at 49.5%. The Sky are the best offensive rebounding team in the WNBA, getting the board on 39.7% of their misses, headlined by Reese averaging 6.0 offensive rebounds per game.

Besides this past Wings game, Reese has played at least 32 minutes in the other two Sky games that were closer in the fourth quarter. I think she received her coach's message last game, especially with her response late in the game. If her minutes are up and she's going against a subpar rebounding team that will be taking worse shots on offense, she seems primed for a big game on the glass. 

Arike Ogunbowale 4+ made threes +172 (0.5 units, FD)

The Ogunbowale prop I'd target is her made 3-pointers, simply because she's going to be taking so many shots from outside. She already has two games this season with at least 12 3-point attempts, and that was with Bueckers playing at least 36 minutes in each of those contests. 

Ogunbowale's points prop closed at 17.5 in Thursday's Wings-Sky matchup and is now at 21.5, so there's already been a major move there with Bueckers being out. Ogunbowale's 3-point prop, however, is still at 2.5 here after closing at 2.5 last game. Now, Over 2.5 closed at plus money on Thursday and is now at -158 for Saturday's contest; however, I don't think there's been a big-enough adjustment there.

Twelve of Ogunbowale's 25 shot attempts were from three against the Sky last game. In her past five games, 45 of her 83 shots from the field have been from three. So over that stretch, over half of her shots are from three, and she's attempting nine 3-pointers per game. Only one WNBA player is taking more than nine 3-pointers per game this season—Atlanta's Rhyne Howard at 10.4.

Now, Ogunbowale has not been efficient with those looks, as she's only knocking down 31.3% of her 3-point shots this season. But if she's going to take more attempts from beyond the arc and against the WNBA's worst perimeter defense, I think her asking to make four 3-pointers at plus money is worth a roll of the dice. After all, the Sky are allowing a WNBA-worst 43.8% percentage on 3-point shots and have allowed opponents to take the second-most 3-pointers per game (28.8).

Season Record: 8-5, +5.44 units