Top-seeded Villanova and No. 3 seed Texas Tech meet on Sunday in the 2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are favored by 6.5 points, unchanged from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 144.5.

Before you make any kind of pick, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer has to say. This model simulates every game 10,000 times and enters the Elite Eight on a blistering 27-15 run on its college basketball picks.

It's also been red-hot when picking Villanova in the NCAA Tournament, having nailed all three point-spread picks in games the Wildcats have played. Anybody following those selections is way, way up.

Now it has simulated Villanova vs. Texas Tech 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results.

We can tell you it is calling for 145 points to be scored, clearing the over by half of a point. It has a much stronger selection against the spread, backing one side almost 65 percent of the time. This is a pick you absolutely need to see.

The model has taken into account the Wildcats' strong run through the NCAA Tournament in 2018. While other top contenders have fallen, Villanova (33-4) has lived up to expectations with three wins by an average of 23 points.

Villanova's offense clicks because of the backcourt duo of Jalen Brunson (19.3 ppg) and Mikal Bridges (18 ppg). After dropping 90 points on West Virginia in the Sweet 16, the Wildcats enter the Elite Eight with the nation's top-scoring offense, averaging 87 points.

That unit will be tested in a huge way against Texas Tech.

Though they are a No. 3 seed, the Red Raiders (27-9) have been a surprise. Many circled them for an early-round exit from March Madness 2018 after they lost five of their past seven coming into the NCAA Tournament.

But they're back to playing elite defense, holding all three opponents thus far to 66 points or fewer -- right in line with their season average (64.6).

If they play at that level defensively against the Wildcats, the Red Raiders have a chance to keep this one within the spread, and could even advance to the Final Four for the first time in school history.

So which side should you back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Villanova-Texas Tech spread the computer is backing almost 65 percent of the time, all from the model that enters the Elite Eight on a 27-15 run and is undefeated on its Villanova ATS picks in the NCAA Tournament.